中国的利率

　　A small step forward

　　向前一小步

　　China’s central bank has liberalised lending rates. Does it matter?

　　中国的央行放开了借贷利率，这有用吗？

　　Jul 27th 2013 | SHANGHAI |From the print edition

　　NOBODY can accuse the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, of being gun-shy. A few weeks ago its clumsy attempt to restrain dodgier forms of bank lending led to a bout of market panic. Many said the episode would chill enthusiasm for further experimentation.

　　没人能指责作为中国央行的中国人民银行行动慎重。几周之前，央行笨拙地试探了收紧银行贷款，这引起了市场的一阵恐慌。许多人表示这会降低进一步作出改革的热情。

　　But on July 20th the PBOC experimented again. On that day the central bank ended all restrictions on lending rates, which previously had a floor of 70% of the PBOC benchmark rate. Banks are now free to set lending rates (save those for residential mortgages) at any level they want.

　　但是在7月20日的时候，中国人民银行又做出了改革。当天，央行放开了借贷利率的限制，之前的标准是借贷利率不得低于央行标准额的0.7倍。现在银行可以自由设定贷款利率了。对住房抵押贷款的人来说是好消息。

　　In truth, the measure is less bold than it appears. The interest-rate reform that everyone is waiting for is liberalisation of deposit rates. China’s policy of financial repression has capped the rate that banks can pay depositors, even as it put a floor on the rate at which they must lend. That has guaranteed fat profits for the big state banks, like Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, that dominate the financial system.

　　事实上，这个措施没有看起来那么大胆。人们想要的利率改革是存款利率的放开。中国的金融压制政策限定了银行给存款者的最高利率，正如也设定了贷款利率一样。这个政策保证了大型国有银行，例如中国银行，中国工商银行的丰厚利润，同时他们也主导了金融体系。

　　The liberalisation of lending rates may be a half-measure, but officials still hope it will increase competition among banks and spur lending to the corporate sector, especially to private firms that have long been starved of capital. Sceptics point out that the PBOC moved the floor for the lending rate from 90% of its benchmark to 70% a year ago, but Chinese banks did not rush to lend below the 90% mark. That suggests they are unlikely to cut rates now.

　　放开贷款利率只算是半个措施。但是官方依然希望这会增加银行间的竞争，促进资金流向企业部门，尤其是长期缺乏资金的私人公司。怀疑者指出一年前中国人民银行将贷款利率的下限由基准利率的90%下调到70%，而中国的银行并没有马上做出调整。那意味着银行并不想马上下调利率。

　　A rival view argues that borrowers with strong bargaining power, such as big state-owned enterprises (SOEs), will now be emboldened to push the big banks for cheaper loans. Some suggest that non-performing loans at SOEs may be rolled over at negligible interest rates, disguising what is, in effect, a state bail-out.

　　相反的观点是借贷者议价能力很强，像一些大型的国有企业，他们现在会有胆量让银行调低利率。一些人表示国企的不良贷款会延期偿还，利率也会很低，实际上相当于国家纾困。

　　On this view, as lower rates eat into their profits the big banks will be forced to look for higher-margin opportunities at the small and medium-sized private firms that they have long ignored. That in turn will put them in direct competition with smaller, private-sector joint-stock banks, such as China Merchants and China Minsheng, that have focused on this area.

　　从这个角度看，低利率会啃食大型银行的利润，他们会将目光转移到长期忽视的中小企业身上，贷款给这些企业利润更高。这会使他们与长期参与中小企业贷款的小型私营股份制银行产生直接竞争，比如中国招商银行，中国民生银行。

　　If so, China’s banks may be about to enter a rocky period. ChinaScope Financial, a research firm, has analysed how increased competition and declining net interest margins will affect banks operating in China. The boffins conclude that the smallest local outfits, known as city commercial banks, and the middling private-sector banks will be hit hardest, but that returns on equity at the big five state banks will also be squeezed (see chart). They think the industry will need $50 billion-100 billion in extra capital over the next two years to keep its capital ratios stable.

　　这样的话，中国的银行可能会进入动荡期。数库财务咨询有限公司分析了竞争的增加和净利息差幅的减少会影响中国银行的运行。研究人员得出结论：小型的地方商业银行和中等私营股份制银行最惨，五大行的权益回报率也会压缩（见表）。他们认为接下来的两年中，银行业需要500亿到1000亿美元的额外资金保证其资本比率稳定。

　　The bigger worry for China’s state banks is the signal sent by the PBOC’s move. The central bank has affirmed its commitment to reform. If those reforms include the liberalisation of deposit rates, then something far more serious than a minor profit squeeze will befall China’s banks. Guaranteed profitability would end; banks would have to compete for customers; and risk management would suddenly matter. In short, Chinese bankers would have to start working for a living.

　　中国国有银行最大的担忧是央行的行动所发出的信号。央行确认要进行改革。如果改革措施包括放开存款利率，那么中国银行业会面临一个比利润压缩更严重的危机。收益保证将会终结。银行需要争夺客户，风险管理突然变得很重要。总而言之，中国的银行从业人员需要认真干活了。