中国的经济

　　Even splits

　　匀速前进

　　China does its bit to calm worries about the world economy

　　中国为平息人们对世界经济的担忧尽了自己的一份力

　　A RUNNER cannot sprint all the time, noted Sheng Laiyun of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, after the release of China’s new growth figures on July 13th; he must pace himself so that he can run better later. Over the past four quarters China’s economy has recorded what runners call “even splits”, keeping a steady pace, lap after lap. It grew by 9.5% in the second quarter (year on year), having grown at a similar rate in the previous three.

　　7月13日，在发布中国最近的增长数据之后，中国国家统计局的盛来运指出，跑步运动员无法一直快速前进，他必须放慢步伐，这样随后才能跑出更好的成绩。在过去4个季度，中国经济创造出了跑步运动员所谓的“匀速前进”的记录，一次次保持了稳定的速度。中国经济第二季度（同比）增长了9.5%，前三个季度的增长速度与此如出一辙。

　　The figures helped allay fears of a hard landing for China’s economy. But they raised some doubts about whether the economy is landing at all. Consumer prices rose by 6.4%. in the year to June. The economy’s pace may be steady. But is it too fast to sustain?

　　这些数据减少了人们对中国经济硬着陆的担忧。但是它们引发了人们对中国经济是否会着陆的疑虑。截至今年6月，消费价格上涨了6.4%。中国经济的增速可能是稳定的。但是是否过快难以为继了呢？

　　China’s macroeconomists, if not its consumers, can take some comfort from the nature of the inflation. Two-thirds of it was due to food prices, and much of that was due to pork. Farmers responded to low pork prices last year by breeding fewer pigs, some of which have since fallen victim to porcine diarrhoea. That pushed up prices by 11.4% in June alone, an annualised rate of 265%. This has played havoc with many economists’ inflation forecasts. “Perhaps I should have become a veterinarian,” says Andy Rothman of CLSA.

　　要是中国的消费者无法从通胀的本质中获得一些安慰，中国的宏观经济学家却可以。三分之二的通胀的是由食品价格造成的，而影响食品价格的主要是猪肉价格。由于去年猪肉价格低，于是农民养的猪就减少了，还因为自从猪腹泻病出现以来，农民就开始减少养猪了。这致使猪肉价格单单在6月份就上涨了11.4%，按年率计算上涨了265%。这导致许多经济学家的通胀预测失灵。里昂证券的安迪?罗思曼说：“或许我应该成为一名素食主义者了。”

　　The source of China’s growth is more worrying than its speed. According to Mark Williams of Capital Economics, investment comprised 62% of the economy’s expansion in the second quarter, its biggest contribution for 18 months. Investment in fixed assets, such as buildings, factories and equipment, has grown by between 21% and 26%, year on year, for the past four quarters, despite the government’s efforts to tighten credit. This resilience may be because so much investment is carried out by state-owned firms, which are at the top of the pecking order when banks make loans. It may also be a sign that financing is not as tight as the hawks would like.

　　中国的增长点比其增长速度更令人担忧。资本经济公司的马克?威廉姆斯称，投资在第二季度的经济增长中占到了62%，是18个月来最大的贡献者。尽管政府努力收紧信贷，但是在过去四个季度，建筑、工厂和设备等固定资产的投资同期增长了21%至26%。有这样的增长速度可能是因为大部分都是国有企业投资的，当各银行放贷时它们拔得了头筹。这可能也说明融资并没有强硬派希望的那样艰难。

　　On the face of it, banks are feeling the pinch, charging each other high rates in the interbank lending market. They made new loans worth 634 billion yuan ($98 billion) in June, typically a strong month for lending. This puts them on course to add less than 7.5 trillion yuan to their loan books this year, according to Peng Wensheng of China International Capital Corporation.

　　从表面上来看，各银行手头比较紧，在银行间的借贷市场上也相互收取高利率。6月份，它们发放了6340亿元（980亿美元）的新贷款，这个月通常是放贷的旺季。中金公司的彭文生表示，这将使它们今年的新增贷款不超过7.5万亿元。

　　But other analysts think financial conditions are looser than they appear. The central bank publishes a broader measure of “social financing”, which includes corporate bonds and some loans repackaged by “trust” companies. By this measure, financing could reach 14.5 trillion yuan this year, according to Fitch, a ratings agency. Even that total may be too low. Fitch believes a better measure of financing—which includes letters of credit loans from Hong Kong and more of the credit from trust companies and similar firms —could exceed 18 trillion yuan this year. That would take China’s stock of financing to 185% of GDP, up from 124% in 2007. ‘

　　但是其他分析人士认为，融资环境比其表面看起来更加宽松。中国央行公布了更加宽泛的“社会融资”标准，其中包括公司债务和一些由“信托”公司重新包装过的贷款。按照这项标准，惠誉评级机构认为，今年的融资金额可达14.5万亿元。连这个数目也是严重偏低的。衡量融资的更好标准是包括香港的信用证和来自信托公司及相关公司更多信贷的，惠誉认为，按照这个标准来算，中国今年的融资额可能超过18万亿元。这将使中国的融资额从2007年国内生产总值的124%上升至185%。

　　Yet China seems to be getting less bang for its financial buck. In 2007, Fitch reckons, it took 1.28 yuan of extra financing to produce an additional yuan of GDP. Now it takes 2.38. China’s growth may be remarkably even. But its financial system is having to pump harder to maintain the pace.

　　然而，在金融方面，中国似乎得不偿失。2007年，惠誉估算，中国多放贷1.28元才多创造了1元的国内生产总值。目前要多放贷2.38元才能多创造1元国内生产总值。中国的经济增长可能是非常均匀。但是中国的金融体系必须加大投入才能保持速度。