埃尔多安应回归温和治理模式（打印版）

　　Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emerged from the attempt to topple him with his grip on power apparently unassailable. A week on from the failed coup, Turkey’s president has assumed emergency powers that will allow him to rule by edict; while some 60,000 people have been detained or suspended in a continuing purge of the public sector. For the moment Mr Erdogan commands public support, both from the devotion of Justice and Development party (AKP) loyalists and the qualified backing of those who dislike him, but condemn the coup and fear the country’s descent into civil war.

　　土耳其总统雷杰普?塔伊普?埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)成功平息了一次试图推翻他的政变，他对权力的控制看上去稳如泰山。这次失败的政变发生一周后，埃尔多安启动紧急状态，他由此获得的权力将使他能够凭一己命令实行统治；与此同时，约60000人在对公共部门的持续清洗中被捕或停职。眼下埃尔多安获得了公众支持，既包括土耳其正义与发展党(Justice and Development party)中忠诚分子的拥护，也包括那些不喜欢他、但谴责政变并担心土耳其陷入内战的人的有保留支持。

　　A state of emergency can be justified, given the brutality of the rebels, who launched air strikes on the capital and shot at civilians. Some of them may still be at large. The question now is whether Mr Erdogan will use this occasion to form a new national consensus and rebuild Turkey’s fractured institutions, or take the opportunity to redouble repression and realise his ambitions of fully fledged autocracy.

　　鉴于此次叛乱的残暴——叛军在首都发动了空袭并枪杀平民——进入紧急状态是合理的。一些叛军可能仍然逍遥法外。眼下的问题是，埃尔多安是会利用这一时机达成全新的国内共识，并重建土耳其千疮百孔的制度，还是利用此次机会加大镇压力度并实现他全面独裁的野心。

　　Ministers have made efforts to reassure the public, and international observers, that civil rights and the rule of law are not under threat. But the early signs are not promising.

　　土耳其的部长们正努力消除公众和国际观察者们的疑虑，称民权和法治不受威胁。但是早期迹象并不令人乐观。

　　Suspected plotters have been paraded before the cameras visibly battered. So many young soldiers have been rounded up that school gyms have been commandeered to house them. There is no sign yet that Turkey will be able to supply the hard evidence the US will require if it is to answer a request to extradite Fethullah Gulen, the cleric accused of inspiring the coup.

　　被怀疑参与阴谋的人列队走过摄像机，明显遭到过殴打。那么多年轻士兵被集中到一起，连学校体育馆都被征来容纳他们。若想让美国回应土耳其引渡费特胡拉?居伦(Fethullah Gulen)的要求，美国势必会要求土耳其提供确凿证据，然而目前尚没有迹象表明土耳其能够提供相关证据。居伦是一名教士，被指控煽动了此次政变。

　　Yet Mr Erdogan has made no secret of his desire to reinstate the death penalty, which would end any fiction of EU accession and would be in breach of Turkey’s own constitution if applied retrospectively. The president has already removed two constitutional court judges who might have stood in his way and can now bypass the court entirely, should he wish to do so.

　　不过，埃尔多安并未掩饰他对恢复死刑的渴望。一旦土耳其恢复死刑，将终结土耳其加入欧盟的幻想，同时如果死刑追溯既往的话，将违反土耳其本国宪法。这位土耳其总统已经铲除了两名可能阻碍他的宪法法院法官，如今只要他想，他就可以完全绕开宪法法院。

　　What is clear is that the scale of the purge now under way will convulse Turkey’s already weakened institutions. So many judges have been fired that it is hard to see how the courts can handle the thousands who could face trial. All university deans have been forced to stand down. With almost a third of top-ranking officers under arrest, the army has lost the trust of Turkish society and will be badly weakened in the fight against Isis.

　　显而易见的是，当前这种大规模清洗将撼动土耳其本已脆弱的制度。这么多法官被解雇，我们很难想象法院如何应对成千上万面临审判的人。所有大学校长都被迫下台。由于近三分之一的高级军官遭到逮捕，军队已丧失了土耳其社会的信任，在与“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)的战斗中将受到严重削弱。

　　Yet if the Turkish state is really riddled with Gulenist sympathisers, Mr Erdogan must take some responsibility. For the best part of a decade, he allied with the Gulen movement to hound his secularist opponents. Now he has spent almost three years trying to root them out — without success, if his allegations against the US-based Islamic cleric are to be taken seriously.

　　不过，如果土耳其政府真的充斥居伦的支持者，那么埃尔多安必须承担一定的责任。在过去十年的大部分时间里，他与居伦运动结盟，共同打压他的世俗主义对手。如今，他已花了近3年时间努力根除他们——但未取得成功，如果他对这位居于美国的伊斯兰教士的指控值得认真对待的话。

　　Turkey’s economy is bound to suffer from the political instability. This heightens the risk of social fracture and institutional collapse. Mr Erdogan will worsen the situation if he invites confrontation — for example, by calling for more street demonstrations by his Islamist supporters, a dangerous move in a country whose immune system is already weakened by jihadism.

　　土耳其经济注定会受到政局不稳的损害。这增加了社会分裂和制度崩溃的风险。如果埃尔多安怂恿对抗，比如号召他的伊斯兰主义支持者举行更多街头游行，他将令局势更加恶化。在土耳其这个免疫系统已被圣战主义削弱的国家里，这是一种危险举动。

　　It is to be hoped he will recognise the urgency of conciliation, in order to focus on rebuilding the state. The past week has shown the value of a free press, which proved crucial in the defeat of the coup. The crisis offers Mr Erdogan an opportunity to return to the moderate style that served him well in the early years of his premiership, when Turkey’s economy and society thrived in an environment of greater tolerance. His fears of a military coup have proved founded, but the path to autocracy is more perilous still.

　　我们只能期待，他将认识到和解对于集中精力重建国家的紧迫性。过去一周已显示了言论自由的价值——它在挫败政变的过程中发挥了关键作用。这场危机为埃尔多安提供了一个回归温和治理模式的机会。在他担任总理初期，这种模式曾给他带来好处，那时土耳其的经济和社会在更宽容的环境里蒸蒸日上。他对军事政变的担心被证明是合理的，但走向独裁会更危险。

埃尔多安应回归温和治理模式（在线收听）