唐纳德`特朗普(Donald Trump)威胁要推翻持续已20年的美国经济政策，他对强势美元提出质疑，令人担心身为总统的他可能引发大型经济体之间新一轮的货币战争。

　　On Monday the president-elect appea-r-ed to break from the longstanding “strong dollar” policy of former administrations, declaring that the currency was too high and that this was preventing US companies from competing with their Chinese counterparts. “It’s killing us,” he said told the Wall Street Journal.

　　周一，当选总统似乎背离前几届政府长期实行的强势美元政策，宣告美元汇率过高，阻碍了美国企业与中国同行开展竞争。“这一点正在要我们的命，”他对《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)表示。

　　Speaking in Switzerland after Mr Trump’s comments, Anthony Scaramucci, a leading figure in Mr Trump’s transition team, said the administration would need to take heed of the problems of a buoyant currency.

　　在特朗普发表上述言论后，其过渡团队的主要人物之一安东尼?斯卡拉穆奇(Anthony Scaramucci)在瑞士发表讲话时表示，特朗普政府将需要注意汇率坚挺的问题。

　　特朗普：强势美元“要我们的命”.jpg

　　“In the Trump administration, there will be a lot of symbolism in terms of reaching out for lower class families and middle class families,” he said, adding that in doing so “we have to be careful about the rising currency, because not just what is going on internationally, but it’ll have an impact internally in the US”.

　　“在特朗普政府主政期间，在接触低阶层家庭和中产阶级家庭方面会有很多象征性的动作，”他表示。他补充说，在这么做的时候，“我们得小心汇率不断上升，不仅是因为国际间的情况，还因为它将在美国国内产生的影响”。

　　But he also suggested that if the new administration could create fast growth, it would allow the US to deal with the tighter monetary conditions that come with a higher currency.

　　但他也提出，如果新一届行政当局能够促成快速经济增长，那将让美国有能力应对伴随更高汇率而来的偏紧的货币条件。

　　Previous incoming administrations have sworn fealty to a strong dollar, saying it was in the interests of the US economy — even when the currency’s value was arguably then doing more harm than good. It was part of a broader US strategy aimed at allowing the currency to find its own value rather than trying to micromanage the exchange rate.

　　前几届行政当局在就职时都誓言要坚守强势美元，称其符合美国经济的利益——即便当时的美元汇率可以说弊大于利。这是美国整体战略的一部分，旨在让本币找到自己的价值，而不试图对汇率进行微观管理。

　　With the dollar trading at near-14-year highs against a basket of peers, Mr Trump’s team faces a serious barrier to its goal of reducing the US trade deficit.

　　鉴于美元兑一篮子货币的加权汇率逼近14年高点，特朗普团队减少美国贸易赤字的目标面临严重障碍。

　　The danger is that if the US starts suppressing the value of its currency it could spark a currency war greater than the skirmishes seen after the 2008 global financial crisis. Besides China such a war would draw in economies in Europe and Japan. It also would mark an unwinding of the G7 consensus that markets ought to set the value of currencies.

　　危险在于，如果美国开始压低美元汇率，它可能引发一场货币战争，其规模大于2008年全球金融危机后出现的小冲突。除了中国以外，这样的战争将卷入欧洲各经济体以及日本。它也将标志着7国集团(G7)共识（应该由市场决定货币的价值）的瓦解。

　　“We haven’t seen anything yet. If the president of the US begins talking the dollar down, we will have currency wars and it will make a mockery of previous things that we thought were wars,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

　　“大幕还未升起。如果美国总统开始用言论压低美元，我们将会见证的货币战争将使我们以往所称的战争像是搞笑，”布朗兄弟哈里曼银行(Brown Brothers Harriman)全球汇率策略主管马克?钱德勒(Marc Chandler)表示。

　　He argued that Mr Trump could end up unwinding the G7 view, triggering instability in financial markets and discouraging foreign investors from investing in US assets.

　　他提出，特朗普可能最终放弃G7的观点，引发金融市场不稳定，并阻碍外国投资者投资于美国资产。

　　“This is a case where the stirrings of a currency war could set the ground for a broader trade war,” said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell economist and author of The Dollar Trap.

　　“目前情况是，一场货币战争的鼓噪可能为一场全面的贸易战争开辟好战场，”康奈尔大学(Cornell)经济学家、《美元陷阱》(The Dollar Trap)作者埃斯瓦尔?普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示。

　　“It does raise the spectre of trade tensions with many of the US trading partners. Once you give up the strong dollar policy and start focusing on the [level of the] currency it does raise the prospect of bringing to a head many of the trade tensions with key trading partners including Europe, Japan and China.”

　　“它确实引发了美国同许多贸易伙伴发生贸易紧张的幽灵。一旦你放弃强势美元政策，开始纠结于美元汇率水平，那确实会使美国与欧洲、日本和中国等主要贸易伙伴之间的贸易紧张白热化。”

　　It is far from clear that comments of the sort Mr Trump and Mr Scaramucci have made will achieve a sustainable reduction in the currency’s value. Some analysts question the potency of such verbal interventions, especially at a time when Mr Trump’s apparent willingness to advocate deficit-widening tax cuts could bring forward interest-rate rises and add to the dollar’s strength. Further, Mr Trump’s decision to criticise Chinese foreign exchange policies seem out of date: recently Beijing has not been seeking to push down its currency but rather to prop it up.

　　远非清楚的是，特朗普和斯卡拉穆奇发表的言论会不会实现美元汇率的持久降低。一些分析师质疑这种口头干预的效力，特别是鉴于眼下特朗普看上去愿意支持扩大赤字的减税措施，而这可能导致美联储加快升息步伐，从而加剧美元强势。此外，特朗普批评中国汇率政策的决定似乎过时：近期北京方面并没有试图压低人民币，而是在支撑人民币汇率。