2006年NPR美国国家公共电台五月-Forecasters Call for Another Busy Hurrica（在线收听） |
| Michelle Norris: From NPR News, this is All Things Considered. I'm Michelle Norris. Melissa Block: And I'm Melissa Block. Melissa Block: Government weather forecasters are calling for another busy hurricane season in the Atlantic. Here is what Conrad Lautenbacher said at a press conference today in Miami. He runs the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration or NOAA. Conrad Lautenbacher: NOAA is predicting an above normal hurricane season with 13 to 16 named storms, of which 8 to 10 are predicted to become hurricanes, and 4 to 6 of those hurricanes are predicted to become major at Category 3 strength or higher. Melissa Block: That's about twice the usual amount of storm activity. NPR's Jon Hamilton explains why forecasters are expecting so many storms this year. Jon Hamilton: On average, the Atlantic produces about 6 hurricanes during the season, which runs from June 1st through the end of November. Some years have only a couple, last year there were 15, including Katrina. Forecasters say they're basing their forecasts for this year on several factors: One is something called wind shear. It is the change in the speed and direction of wind at different altitudes. And Jerry Bell of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says it's critical. Jerry Bell: Hurricanes require low wind shear in order to form, so by being able to predict these wind patterns, we can then predict, like this year, with high confidence, that the wind shear will be quite low, and therefore likely to produce a very active hurricane season. Jon hamilton: Another factor is the water temperature across the Atlantic Ocean. Warm water fuels hurricanes; cool water tends to slow them down. David Adamec is an oceanographer with NASA who uses satellite data to track changes in ocean temperatures. He says the news this year isn't all bad. David Adamec: Between Africa and to the West Indies is about one degree Fahrenheit or so warmer than normal, that's going to mean that the hurricanes are gonna have an easier time . But off the east coast of the US, it's really a mixed bag, just for right now. It's actually about normal or a little bit cooler than normal. Jon Hamilton: Oddly, water temperatures in the Pacific can also affect hurricanes in the Atlantic. Last year Pacific waters near the equator were colder than normal, a condition called La Nina. That shifts the jet stream which flows from west to east over North America in a way that favors hurricanes. But Adamec says satellite data suggest that La Nina won't be a problem this year. David Adamec: We have about as normal conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean as you can get right now, which means at least for this year, La Nina will not be playing a factor in the number of hurricanes or in the hurricane generation environment. Jon Hamilton: All this science has helped forecasters get a lot better at predicting which hurricane seasons will be busy and which ones won't . But there's still a lot of uncertainty about exactly how many storms will occur or where they will land. A well-known forecasting team at Colorado State University agrees with NOAA's forecast for this season. But Philip Klotzbach says that last year both teams were pretty far off the mark. Philip Klotzbach: We predicted a very active hurricane season, unfortunately we didn't quite predict the magnitude of the season. But we were calling for activity about, say, 70% above an average season, and we got about 170% above an average season. Jon Hamilton: NOAA predicted 9 hurricanes and got 15. But Max Mayfield of the National Hurricane Center says even a perfect forecast is of limited value to most people. Max Mayfield: It's not all about the numbers, it just takes that one hurricane over your house to make for a bad year. Jon Hamilton: Forecasters at the hurricane center learned that the hard way, in 1992, Hurricane Andrew badly damaged the hurricane center's old home in Coral Gables, it has since moved to a bunker-like structure in Miami. Mayfield says that even if this year turns out to be a quiet one, the coming years probably won't be. Max Mayfield: We're in this very active period for major hurricanes that may last at least another 10 or 20 years. That's not good news, and the message is very clear, we need to be prepared. Jon Hamilton: That means among other things being ready to evacuate when forecaster say a big storm is on the way. Jon Hamilton: Jon Hamilton, NPR News. -------------------- Word in NPR -------------------- a mixed bag: something that includes both good and bad parts; 杂集，混合体，大杂烩 jet stream: a current of very strong winds high above the Earth's surface; 急流；喷气流 |
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