Economic Development: Shrink wrap 经济发展：收缩包装

　　Why the history of economic growth should be all about recessions? 为什么经济增长的历史应该都是与经济衰退相关？

　　“Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man,” wrote Robert Heinlein, a science-fiction writer. 一个名为罗伯特·海因莱因( Robert Heinlein )的科幻作家写到，“纵观历史，贫穷是人们的常态”。

　　Until the 18th century, global GDP per person was stuck between $725 and $1,100, around the same income level as the World Bank's current poverty line of $1.90 a day. 直到18世纪，全球GDP每人都卡在725美元和1100美元之间，大约和世界银行目前每天1.90美元贫困线一样。

　　But global income levels per person have since accelerated, from around $1,100 in 1800 to $3,600 in 1950, and over $10,000 today. 但是全球收入水平每人已经增长了，从1800年1100美元到1950年3600美元，到今天超过了10万美元。

　　Economists have long tried to explain this sudden surge in output. 经济学家长久以来一直试图解释这种收入上的突然增长。

　　Most theories have focused on the factors driving long-term economic growth such as the quantity and productivity of labour and capital. 大部分理论都集中在促进经济长期增长的因素如劳动和资本的质量和生产力。

　　But a new paper takes a different tack: faster growth is not due to bigger booms, but to less shrinking in recessions. 但是一项新的研究有了不同的看法：更快的增长并不是由于大繁荣，而是由于萧条中更少的衰退。

　　Stephen Broadberry of Oxford University and John Wallis of the University of Maryland have taken data for 18 countries in Europe and the New World, some from as far back as the 13th century. 牛津大学的斯蒂芬·布劳德伯利（Stephen Broadberry）和马里兰大学的约翰·沃利斯（John Wallis）把18世纪欧洲和新世界，还有一些早至13世纪的数据收取了。