2019年经济学人 单独行事 (3)（在线收听）

Mr Trump's trade agenda could hardly be more different.

特朗普的贸易议程可能完全不同。

His "America First" rhetoric, threats of tariffs on allies and of withdrawal from the WTO,

他的“美国优先”策略、对盟国施加关税和退出WTO的威胁

and policies of blocking appointments to the WTO's court and using tariffs as a national-security tool,

以及对WTO法庭约定的阻碍以及将关税用作是一种国家安全工具，

are inimical to an even-handed system that all can support.

都对一种所有国家都可以支持的公平体制怀有敌意。

Even if these policies turn out to be temporary, the uncertainty they cause may be permanent.

即便这些政策是暂时的，它们所引发的不确定性可能是永久性的。

Some of the USMCA's provisions go beyond even those of the TPP, for example its rules on the movement of data across borders.

USMCA中的一些规定远超TPP中的规定，例如，其对跨边界数据移动的规定。

And the USTR's objectives for talks with Japan, published on December 21st, are similar to those in the USMCA.

USTR于12月21日发布的和日本会谈的目标和USMCA中的那些相似。

But the fear is that, having all but abandoned the aim of broad trade liberalisation,

但人们担心除了抛弃广泛贸易自由化的目标，

America may prioritise quick, shallow deals rather than deeper ones that would strengthen global trade governance.

美国或许会给迅速肤浅的协议提供优先权，而怠慢那些能够巩固世界贸易管理的深入协议。

The complex "rules of origin" that feature in preferential deals are also worrying.

那些以特惠协议为特征的复杂的“原产地规则”也令人担忧。

These specify the minimum share of a product that must originate in the parties to a deal if it is to qualify for reduced duties.

这些协议规定一种产品的最小份额必须产自当事国所达成为协议才有资格享受减征关税。

They thus allow trade negotiators to shape supply chains and manage production.

因此，他们让贸易谈判代表制定供应链并管理生产。

And one study found that compliance costs amounted to 3-5% of the final product price, offsetting the deal's benefits.

并且一项研究发现税务执行费用总计为最终产品价格的3-5%，抵消了协议的收益。

The Trump administration has sought to use such rules to reshape car production in North America, tightening them by several notches in the USMCA.

特朗普政府寻求利用这种规则重新制定北美的汽车生产，通过USMCA中的几个等级加强对他们的控制。

As well as restricting trade, rather than liberalising it, they will make it tricky to agree more permissive rules of origin for cars in future trade deals.

和限制贸易一样，他们不会将其自由化，而是让它变得棘手从而无法在以后的汽车贸易协议中实施更加宽松的原产地规则。

It will soon become clear how ambitious America wants to be.

很快就能知道美国有多么的野心勃勃。

A deal with China that limited industrial subsidies, long a bugbear of other countries, could yet be baked into the multilateral system.

和中国的一项协议限制了工业补贴，这是长期困扰其他国家的一个难题，而这项协议可能会被纳入多边体制中。

One with Japan could set some useful standards and precedents.

和日本的一项协议可以设立一些有效的标准和判例。

Mr Trump may decide to blow up the multilateral system and impose tariffs on America's allies.

特朗普可能决定要摧毁多边体系并对美国的盟友施加关税。

Even if he does not, success on his terms could cause longlasting damage.

即使他不这么做，成功连任可能会导致持久破坏。