美国国家公共电台 NPR Poll: Americans Split on House Impeachment Inquiry（在线收听）

ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:

Our latest NPR/PBS/Marist poll finds that Americans are paying attention as we learn more about President Trump's call with his Ukrainian counterpart. But they're divided on the question of whether or not the impeachment inquiry is warranted. Domenico Montanaro is NPR's senior political editor and joins us now.

Hi, Domenico.

DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey there, Ari.

SHAPIRO: Let's start with what the numbers tell us about whether Americans approve of House Democrats' impeachment inquiry. What's the result?

MONTANARO: Well, Americans are split overall, 49-46, on whether they approve of Democrats starting this impeachment inquiry. We should be careful, though, because this poll was conducted over one night - last night. And that was before this morning's revelation of that whistleblower complaint being released.

But here's what we know so far, and it's instructive for how the messaging war is going to play out. Independents are not onboard with this at this point. Half of them in the poll say they disapprove, and that's a key group that's trended with Democrats on almost everything in the Trump era but just not impeachment. People who live in the suburbs, they're also not quite convinced. They're split. And Democrats have work to do to convince both of those key groups. Remember suburban voters helped Democrats over the line in 2018 to take back the House.

The poll also found big splits that are pretty familiar by now with - by gender, party and place. Women, especially women with college degrees, said they're supportive of beginning this process. Men and people who live in rural areas - largely not.

Overall, though, Americans want to hear more. Three-quarters said they want to hear the whistleblower testify before Congress, and a majority thinks that there needs to be more investigation into that phone call President Trump had with the president of Ukraine.

SHAPIRO: This story has totally consumed official Washington over the last week. Beyond D.C., are people paying attention?

MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, what the pollsters found here was that 7 in 10, in fact, are saying that they are paying attention to this story. But so far, it's a higher percentage of Republicans, actually, who've been tuning in - 80%, compared to 70% of Democrats, just 64% of independents. And again, that messaging is going to be so crucial when it comes to independents because they're such a key group for people who could be persuaded here.

SHAPIRO: Domenico, this story is moving so fast. We record an interview earlier in the day, and it's obsolete by the time we're on the air...

MONTANARO: I know.

SHAPIRO: ...In the afternoon. So how reliable are these poll numbers actually?

MONTANARO: Well, poll numbers can always change. And we should note that this poll - we should, you know, always say - is a snapshot of what people thought. And this was after the day of the details of the phone call Trump had with the president of Ukraine, when that was released. This was a one-night poll, so it was conducted before that whistleblower complaint came out, like we said earlier.

So we're going to have to see what happens in the coming days. A lot can and probably will change. Our pollsters warn that the next 48 to 72 hours are going to be crucial because, in the words of one of our pollsters, right now it looks like we're in the middle of a political storm here, and opinions are very fluid.

SHAPIRO: That's NPR's senior political editor Domenico Montanaro.

Thank you.

MONTANARO: You're welcome.

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