2018年经济学人 自由交流:特朗普税改面临的“道德风险”(2)（在线收听）

This approach is enormously valuable.

这种方式非常有价值。

It disciplines thinking, produces useful information and makes it easier to build professional consensus about what is known and which questions remain unanswered.

它训练了思维，产生有用的信息，使人们更容易建立专业的共识，知道什么是已知的，哪些问题仍没有答案。

Though cost-benefit analysis is not perfect, is often the best route to getting informed experts to agree.

尽管成本收益分析法并不完美，但通常是让专家们取得一致的最佳选择。

Used in isolation, however, it can lead to trouble.

然而，如果孤立地使用它，将会带来麻烦。

In a paper presented at the annual conference of the American Economic Association (AEA) in January, Matthew Weinzierl, of Harvard University,

今年1月份，哈佛大学的马修· Weinzierl在美国经济协会（AEA）的年度会议上发表的一篇论文中指出，

notes that the world is too complicated to be modelled with anything like perfect accuracy.

世界太复杂，不能以完美的精确度来被建模。

Many knock-on effects from policy shifts are unknowable beforehand.

政策转变带来的许多连锁反应是不可知的。

He suggests that in the absence of perfect foresight, policymakers could turn to social principles or rules that have evolved over time.

他认为，在缺乏完美预见的情形下，政策制定者可以转向社会原则或随着时间而演变的规则。

These may reflect accumulated knowledge about some choices’ unintended consequences.

这些可能反映了积累的关于某些选择的意外结果的知识。

He gives an example.

他给出了一个例子。

Governments might choose to increase redistribution based on evidence that high inequality creates feelings of envy, and envy reduces the welfare of the non rich by making them feel worse.

政府可能会选择增加再分配，基于这样的证据，高度不平等会产生嫉妒感，而嫉妒感会使非富人的福利变得更糟糕。

Yet survey evidence suggests that people are largely opposed to redistribution that is motivated by envy.

但调查证据表明，人们在很大程度上反对由嫉妒感引起的再分配。

Validating envy through tax policy could prove socially corrosive, in a way that economists’ models fail to capture.

通过税收政策来验证嫉妒心理可能会对社会产生腐蚀，而经济学家的模型无法捕捉到这点。

Put differently, Mr Weinzierl contends that economists should take moral concerns more seriously.

换句话说，Weinzierl先生认为经济学家应该更认真地对待道德问题。

That is something close to professional heresy.

这与专业的异端邪说很接近。