PBS高端访谈:民主党辩论即将再次打响(在线收听

Megan Thompson: It's a busy week in politics, including the upcoming Democratic debate on Tuesday in Ohio. Jeff Greenfield joins me now from Santa Barbara for some analysis. So we heard this news this morning about Hunter Biden, he's now stepping down from the board of a Chinese company. How do you think that's going to play out this week?

Jeff Greenfield: It's an issue that Democrats raise all the time about President Trump's family who were still actively involved in tens of millions of dollars in businesses, and I could see some of Joe Biden's opponents saying, well, you know, was that a case of good judgment, how come you didn't raise this with your son when he was beginning to sign on to some of these companies?

Megan Thompson: What else do you think are going to be hearing on Tuesday from the candidates?

Jeff Greenfield: So I think two things are going to come up. One, I think the interrogators, the panel are going to ask these candidates how much they identify with some of the more controversial positions that some have taken. Beto O'Rourke suggested that churches that oppose same-sex marriage be deprived of their tax-exempt status, which is widely at variance with traditional First Amendment notions. I think the other kinds of issues that have come up in the past: are you for open borders or do you think that there's going to be some limit? Do you favor taking away private health insurance? Where are you on abortion, any restrictions? The other thing that I think is going to come up is age. We just had a 78-year-old candidate suffer a heart attack and I think that issue is going to come up with respect not just to Sanders but with Joe Biden, who is almost the same age. It's an interesting notion that if either of those two people are elected president, on their first day in office they will be older than Ronald Reagan was on his last day. And I think that's an issue that's going to haunt at least Sanders and Biden, possibly Elizabeth Warren, though the polls suggest people are less worried about her age than they are about Sanders or Biden.

Megan Thompson: Turning now to the impeachment inquiry. For the past three years, President Trump has had almost lockstep support from congressional Republicans, but we are starting to see some cracks in that, right?

Jeff Greenfield: Yeah, and I think it's because the more immediate issues have to do with foreign policy matters that are of special concern to senators because the Senate is the body that ratifies treaties, confirms ambassadors and diplomats, and what the president stands accused of doing with respect to Ukraine is holding an ally besieged by Russia hostage to his political concerns. So depending on what next week's witnesses say at various congressional committees, you can see some congressional Republicans bothered by this in a way that other things that Trump has done did not. I also think this sudden reversal of policy in northern Syria, where after a phone call with the president of Turkey, we're hearing reports of chaos in northern Syria, of ISIS prisoners being freed. That's the kind of result that is going to bother Republican conservatives who have long argued that we need a more muscular foreign policy.

Megan Thompson: I mean, how much do you think this is going to weaken the president's hand as we approach the very probable likelihood of impeachment in the House?

Jeff Greenfield: Well, you know, we should think back to the Clinton impeachment when only five Democrats, basically southern Democrats who really weren't Democrats at all, voted to impeach the president and no Democrat in the Senate voted to convict. As of now I don't see more than a handful, fingers of one hand with some left over, a couple of Republicans in the House who will vote for impeachment, but unless and until a kind of reasonable number of Republicans break with him, I think he's going to continue to fight this on the basis that this is partisan politics and it's an attempt to undo the 2016 election and that line is going to hold until we see signs of more cracks in the wall than we've seen so far.

Megan Thompson: Great. Jeff Greenfield, thank you so much as always.

Jeff Greenfield: Thanks for having me.

梅根·汤普森:这一周,政坛诸事纷扰,其中就包括周二俄亥俄州即将举行的民主党辩论。今天,我们与来自圣巴巴拉市的杰夫·格林菲尔德连线,听他们为我们解析一二。今早,我们收到了关于亨特·拜登的消息——他即将从某中国公司的董事会中离任。你觉得这件事在这一周里将进行怎样的发酵呢?

杰夫·格林菲尔德:这个问题是许多民主党人一直在提起的——特朗普家族依然活跃于价值数千万美元的商业活动中。我看到一些反对拜登的人说,这件事里体现了正确的判断吗?在自己的儿子要加入这样的公司时,你怎么可能不交代一下这些背景。

梅根·汤普森:您觉得,周二的时候,民主党候选人还会说起什么话题呢?

杰夫·格林菲尔德:我觉得有两件事会被提起。第一件事:我觉得质询专家组会问候选人他们对一些备受争议的问题是如何看待的。贝托·欧洛克建议说,反对同性结婚的教堂也应该交税。但这个观点与《第一修正案》的内容不符。我还想到了一些过去提出过的问题——是否支持开放边界?你觉得是否应该加以限制?你是否赞成撤除私人医疗保险?对堕胎问题,你怎么看?你觉得是否应该加以限制?我觉得还有一件事会被提起——年龄。有一位候选人已78岁高龄,而且有心脏病史。我觉得这个问题的矛头不仅会指向桑德斯,也会指向拜登,因为两位的年龄相仿。这个点很有趣,因为如果二者之一当选总统的话,那么他们上任第一天的年龄比里根在任最后一天的年龄还要大。我觉得还有一个问题的矛头会指向这两位,甚至指向伊丽莎白·沃伦,虽然民调显示,与前两位相比,民众不是很在意伊丽莎白的年龄。

梅根·汤普森:现在,我们来聊聊弹劾调查。过去3年来,特朗普总统获得了几乎所有共和党议员的一致支持,但目前,我们看到这其中出现了裂缝,对吗?

杰夫·格林菲尔德:是的,我觉得这其中最直接的是外交政策的相关问题。这是许多参议员特别关心的问题,因为参议院这个机构是负责批准协定、确认大使和外交官、而特朗普被指控与乌克兰有染的这件事是将被俄罗斯挟持的乌克兰放在了自己的政治考虑中。所以,看看下周的时候,几位证人在不同的国会委员上怎么说吧。到时候就会发现国会的共和党议员会因为特朗普的所作所为而备受困扰。我还想到了一个问题——特朗普在叙利亚北部的政策发生变化,在跟土耳其总统通话后,我们了解到叙利亚北部出现了骚动的报道,IS囚徒又自由了。这样的结果会让共和党的保守派议员感到困扰,因为长期以来,他们一直都觉得美国需要更加强健的外交政策。

梅根·汤普森:随着众议院弹劾事宜的进展,你觉得特朗普当选的优势会受到多大的影响呢?

杰夫·格林菲尔德:我们应该回想一下克林顿受到弹劾的时候,那时候,只有5名民主党议员投票弹劾克林顿,而且这5人都是南方的民主党议员,其实还称不上是严格意义上的民主党人。除了他们5个,其他人都没有投票弹劾。目前为止,我没有看到几个人,除非许多共和党议员都跟特朗普闹掰。我觉得特朗普会继续以这是党派之争的说辞来为自己辩护,此举是为了撤销2016年的大选结果。这条阵线会一直存在,除非他们之间的嫌隙扩大。

梅根·汤普森:感谢杰夫·格林菲尔德参加我们的节目。

杰夫·格林菲尔德:感谢邀请我。

  原文地址:http://www.tingroom.com/lesson/pbs/sh/502501.html