美国国家公共电台 NPR 美国失业率飙至14.7% 创大萧条以来最高（在线收听）

The unemployment rate in the United States is now at 14.7%, the worst since the Great Depression. Women, Hispanics and African Americans are especially hard-hit. Hospitality and retail are two sectors that see especially sharp decline. William Rodgers teaches public policy at Rutgers, and he is the chief economist at the Heldrich Center there. Mr. Rodgers, thanks so much for joining us this morning.

目前美国的失业率已达到14.7%，创下经济大萧条以来的最糟糕记录。女性、拉美裔和非裔美国人受到的打击尤为严重。酒店业和零售业是下滑尤为严重的两个行业。威廉·罗杰斯在罗格斯大学教授公共政策，他也是罗格斯大学海德克中心的首席经济学家。罗杰斯先生，非常感谢你今天早上和我们连线。

WILLIAM RODGERS: Thanks for having me. I wish it was on a much more positive occasion.

威廉·罗杰斯：谢谢你们邀请我。我希望是一个更积极的场合。

SIMON: Yes, in fact, we do, but thank you for making the time for us. How do you explain — how do we explain that right after those soul-piercing unemployment numbers were announced yesterday, the markets rallied?

西蒙：事实上，我们有，不过还是感谢你抽出时间和我们连线。昨天那些令人震惊的数据公布后，市场出现了反弹，你对此作何解释？

RODGERS: Yeah, it's very, you know, very perplexing for, you know, for most people — in particular, people on Main Street who are having a very, very different experience. And, you know, the way I explain it to my students is, you know, the stock market is really capturing current value and future value. And underlying that is people's expectations, the market's expectations about what the Federal Reserve is going to do, what Congress is going to do. And whenever there is new information, such as this jobs report, it actually, I think, can send that signal that, oh, you know, the Federal Reserve is going to continue or either strengthen its resolve to help to maintain stability, or that this is going to — this report will put more sort of wind behind the back for those who want Congress and the administration to, you know, to begin now talking about what we have to do after the summer. Because this is that — even the new normal is going to be in a situation where economic growth is going to be challenged.

罗杰斯：对大多数人来说，尤其是大街上那些拥有非常不同经历的人来说，这令人非常困惑。我向我的学生解释说，股市在捕捉当前价值和未来价值。这隐含的是人们对美联储和国会计划的期望。我认为，每当有新信息时，比如这份就业报告，就会发出这样的信号：哦，美联储将继续加强其帮助维持稳定的决定，或者这份报告将为那些希望国会和政府现在开始讨论夏天过后计划的人提供更多风向。因为即使是新常态也将面临经济增长遭受挑战的局面。

SIMON: White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said yesterday the White House won't talk to Congress about any more aid or stimulus because states are now reopening — want to see what effect that has on the economy this month. How does that strike you?

西蒙：白宫经济顾问拉里·库德洛昨天表示，白宫不会就更多援助或刺激措施与国会进行对话，因为现在各州正在重新开放，他们希望看到这会对本月的经济情况有何影响。你怎么看？

RODGERS: That's just simply irresponsible. I respect Larry. When he was with CNBC, he interviewed me a few times. But, unfortunately, I just have to really, vehemently disagree with him. That's just irresponsible. That — you know, yesterday's jobs report clearly sent the message that, you know, this is not a two-alarm fire. It's a three-alarm fire.

罗杰斯：那简直是不负责任。我尊重拉里。他在美国全国广播公司财经频道（简称CNBC）工作时，他采访过我几次。但不幸地是，我不得不非常强烈地反对他。这是不负责任。昨天公布的就业报告明确地传达了这样一个信息：这不是两级火警。而是三级火警。

The other thing about yesterday's jobs report — that survey was done the second week of April, all right? And so since then, we've had another, you know, I believe 12 million to 15 million or 16 million Americans apply for unemployment insurance. So, you know, the BLS workers — they're awesome. They're great. I've worked with many, many of them. So this is not a criticism to them. But the jobs report that came out yesterday, or Friday — that is, you know, backward looking. And, you know, the unemployment insurance claims are a better leading indicator. And so based upon that, they need to be talking.

昨天的就业报告还有一点值得注意，那项调查是在4月第二周完成的，对吧？而自那以后，我想又有1200万到1500万或1600万美国人申请了失业保险。所以，美国劳工统计局的工作人员，他们太棒了。他们很棒。我与他们中的许多人一起工作过。所以这并不是对他们的批评。但昨天或周五发布的这份就业报告，是在回顾过去。失业保险索赔是更优的领先指标。基于此，他们需要对话。

SIMON: Mr. Rodgers, there was some feeling that we had just about full employment until the coronavirus hit. And a lot of people seem to be counting on the economy coming back pretty quickly, or at least jobs coming back pretty quickly. Are you as confident? Are a lot of these job losses going to be not just temporary?

西蒙：罗杰斯先生，有人认为在冠状病毒爆发前我们差不多已经达到了充分就业。许多人似乎指望经济能很快恢复，或至少就业机会能快速恢复。你有信心吗？是否有大量失业不只是暂时情况？

RODGERS: Well, it's — not so much of it is about temporary versus permanent loss. It's really the pace of change and the pace of the recovery that I think the administration — that they're — and I understand their position. You know, they're hoping it's going to be a V-shaped recovery — that is the sharp downward trend and then the rapid recovery — versus a Nike swoosh, a long drop — a quick drop but then a long recovery. And that recovery really is going to hinge upon, one, if states open up too quickly. It's akin to possibly sending kids back to school when they're not fully healthy, and they either have a relapse or they get their teachers and their peers infected. So that's the debate that we're having right now. My sense is it's going to be more of a Nike swoosh as I see more data.

罗杰斯：这不只是暂时失业与永久失业的问题。 这涉及变化和恢复的速度，我想我理解政府的立场。他们希望这是V型复苏，即急剧下降后快速复苏，而不是耐克标志那样的复苏，即长期和快速下降之后开始漫长的复苏。这种复苏将取决于各州是否开放得过快。这就好比在孩子的身体尚未完全恢复健康时将其送回学校，他们要么旧病复发，要么会感染老师和其他同学。这就是目前正在进行的辩论。在我看到更多数据时，我感觉这更像是耐克标志型的复苏。

SIMON: William Rodgers, thanks very much for being with us.

西蒙：威廉·罗杰斯，非常感谢你和我们连线。

RODGERS: Thank you.

罗杰斯：谢谢。