2020年经济学人 学会和自然灾害共存(1)（在线收听）

California burns every year. But amid a record-breaking heatwave, 2020 is the fieriest year yet.

加利福尼亚每年都在燃烧。但在一场破纪录的热浪中，2020年是迄今为止最火热的一年。

As The Economist went to press, more than 7,600 fires had burned over 2.5m acres (1m hectares) of land. The season still has months to run.

本刊付印之际，7600多起火灾已经烧毁了250万英亩（100万公顷）的土地。这个季节还有还几个月才结束。

That fits a long-term trend, for California's wildfires are getting steadily worse.

这符合一个长期趋势，因为加州的森林大火正在持续恶化。

Blazes in the 2010s burned 6.8m acres on average, up from 3.3m acres in the 1990s.

2010年代的火灾平均烧毁面积为680万英亩，而上世纪90年代为330万英亩。

The fire season lasts nearly three months longer now than it did in the 1970s.

现在的火灾季节比上世纪70年代多持续了近3个月。

Over the past decade, the state has spent an average of $3.7bn a year fighting fires.

在过去十年里，该州平均每年花费37亿美元用于救火。

Add the cost of rebuilding, treating casualties and restoration, says Headwaters Economics, a think-tank, and that is perhaps a tenth of the total cost.

再加上重建、治疗伤亡人员以及修复的成本，智囊团Headwaters Economics表示，这大概是总成本的十分之一。

Although smaller than this year's, the 2018 fire season was particularly destructive. It killed 100 people and burned tens of thousands of buildings.

尽管2018年的火灾规模比今年小，但破坏性特别大。一百人遇难，成千上万栋建筑被烧毁。

The reason is a double whammy of climate change and development.

原因是气候变化和发展的双重打击。

More homes are being built next to forests, in what experts call the "wildland-urban interface" (WUI).

越来越多的房屋建在森林附近，专家们称之为“森林-城镇交界域”（WUI）。

A 2018 study estimated that roughly a third of American homes were in the WUI. The problem is acute in California.

2018年的一项研究估计，大约三分之一的美国家庭居住在WUI地区。这个问题在加州非常严重。

Pricey housing has pushed people onto cheaper land close to the wilderness.

高额房价迫使人们搬到靠近荒野的廉价土地居住。

At the same time, climate change is extending the dry season, which stores up fuel for fires.

与此同时，气候变化使旱季延长，为火灾储存了燃料。

In California, a chronic "megadrought"—in which dry years become more common and wet ones scarcer—is making matters even worse.

在加州，一场漫长的“百年难遇的干旱”——干旱年份越来越常见，多雨年越来越罕见——让问题变得更加糟糕。

One paper, citing tree-ring data, concluded that the drought, which started around 2000, is the second-worst in the past 1,200 years.

一篇论文引用了树木年轮数据，得出结论——这场始于2000年左右的干旱是过去1200年来第二严重的。

It, too, has been linked to climate change. Since neither trend shows much sign of reversing,

它也和气候变化有关。由于这两种趋势都没有显示出逆转的迹象，

people on America's west coast will have to learn to co-exist with more, and more frequent, fires.

美国西海岸的人们将不得不学着与更多且更频繁的火灾共存。

"It's not that different to building on an earthquake-prone landscape," says Max Moritz, a wildfire expert at the University of California at Santa Barbara.

加州大学圣芭芭拉分校的一位森林大火专家Max Moritz表示，“这和在地震易发地区的建筑没有什么不同。”