VOA慢速英语20060120a

ECONOMICS¹ REPORT - Economic Conditions: Trying to Read the FutureBy Mario Ritter

Broadcast: Friday, January 20, 2006

I'm Steve Ember with the VOA Special English Economics Report.

Economics and weather have a lot in common. Knowing what conditions will be like weeks or months in the future is not easy. One thing that helps economists² predict the future is the index of leading economic indicators⁴.




An index is a way to measure changes in a group of numbers over time. In financial markets, for example, an index of stocks will rise or fall with changes in the wider market. The changes measured by an index can be represented with a single percentage.

The index may start at a base period of time with a value of one hundred. Now say that a month later the value is recorded as one hundred one. That means it gained one percent. If the index lost one percent, however, the value would be ninety-nine.

The leading economic indicators are really ten indexes. Four deal with manufacturing activity. One deals with unemployment claims. Another measures people's expectations of the economy. Still others involve financial information like the money supply and interest rates.

The index of leading indicators is just one of the tools used to measure the business cycle. Business cycles are the normal changes that happen in economic growth over time.

A measure called the coincident index provides information about current conditions. Employment rates are an important part of it. There is also a lagging index. It helps confirm economic changes that currently⁵ appear to be taking place. Interest rates are an important lagging indicator³.

The Conference Board publishes economic indicators for the United States. The Conference Board is a non-profit organization based in New York. It brings together business leaders to learn new ideas from one another. It has member companies around the world.

The Conference Board also does economic research. Its work helps show business and government leaders what conditions might be ahead.

But this group did not always produce the index of leading economic indicators. It took over the job in nineteen ninety-five from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, part of the Commerce Department.

The Conference Board also publishes economic indicators for Australia, France, Germany and Japan. Others are Britain, Mexico, South Korea and Spain.

This VOA Special English Economics Report was written by Mario Ritter. Read and listen to our reports at www.unsv.com. I'm Steve Ember.

1 economics   

n.经济学，经济情况

参考例句：

• He is studying economics,which subject is very important.他正在学习经济学，该学科是很重要的。
• One can't separate politics from economics.不能把政治与经济割裂开来。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

4 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

5 currently   

adv.通常地，普遍地，当前

参考例句：

• Currently it is not possible to reconcile this conflicting evidence.当前还未有可能去解释这一矛盾的例证。
• Our contracts are currently under review.我们的合同正在复查。