VOA慢速英语2014 中国和印度将成为世界最大经济体吗?

 

AS IT IS 2014-06-22 Will China, India Become World's Largest Economies? 中国和印度将成为世界最大经济体吗?

The economies of India and China could be larger than many people have thought.  A new study from the World Bank now has some experts predicting that China will become the world’s largest economy--by one measure--this year.  The same study says that India’s economy could pass Japan’s as the world’s third largest.

To get their results, the researchers used a different way to measure the size of a nation’s economy.  Usually economists¹ measure by a country’s gross domestic product: the value of all goods and services it produces. But, some say a different method called purchasing power parity², or PPP, is a better measure.  It examines differences in the cost of living among nations.

The report is from the International Comparison Program, which was established by the United Nations.  The results are based on prices in 2011.  Kamel Mellahi is a professor at the University of Warwick in Britain.  He says PPP provides economists with a way to compare the costs of ordinary things that people need in different countries.

“You take a basket of goods that we all buy, including milk, butter, sugar, go(ing) to the movie, price of (a) haircut, in different countries and they look at the cost of that in different countries.”

Experts then establish a base exchange rate and use it to compare economies. 

The gross domestic product measure uses market-based exchange rates to compare economies.  They are exchange rates paid by travelers and exporters.  So the main difference between GDP and PPP is how exchange rates are computed³.

Greg McBride is Chief Financial Analyst⁴ at Bankrate.com.  He says PPP avoids some problems. But it is more like an estimate than a measurement.

“There is a huge margin⁵ of error there that I think can really throw the validity of the whole thing into question.”

World Bank information shows that China’s GDP was about eight trillion dollars in 2012.  That was half the size of the 16-trillion-dollar US economy.

However, Professor Mellahi says the GDP measurement underestimates developing economies.

“With traditional GDP, people always said it underestimates the size of economies in developing countries, and some of the emerging economies.”

The economies of China and India continue to grow at rates higher than most developed economies.  However, China and India rate far below other large economies when their economies are compared with their populations.

1 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 parity   

n.平价，等价，比价，对等

参考例句：

• The two currencies have now reached parity.这两种货币现已达到同等价值。
• Women have yet to achieve wage or occupational parity in many fields.女性在很多领域还没能争取到薪金、职位方面的平等。

3 computed   

adj.[医]计算的，使用计算机的v.计算，估算( compute的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He computed that the project would take seven years to complete. 他估计这项计划要花七年才能完成。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Resolving kernels and standard errors can also be computed for each block. 还可以计算每个块体的分辨核和标准误差。 来自辞典例句

4 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

5 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。