VOA慢速英语--朝鲜的新导弹会推动美国扩大导弹防御吗?

Will North Korea’s New Missile Push US to Expand Missile Defenses

North Korea showed off a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at a big military parade earlier this month.

Security experts say the missile appears designed to overpower U.S. missile defenses. They believe it may push the United States to add costly² new anti-missile defenses to guard against the new weapon.

The huge ICBM is the largest ever shown by North Korea. Commentators³ say it is likely to be the "new strategic weapon" promised by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the beginning of the year. A strategic weapon is one that can strike from a great distance.

The missile was presented at a parade marking the 75th anniversary of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party.

Little is known about the weapon, which is being called the Hwasong-16. But experts say North Korea is likely trying to show it can put several nuclear warheads on a single missile. That would make intercepting⁵ such a weapon more difficult and costly for U.S. missile defense¹ systems.

Costly defense system

"If you have multiple warheads coming out of that single missile, you now have to have multiple interceptors for each incoming warhead," said Melissa Hanham. She studies North Korea's weapons program and is deputy director of the Austria-based Open Nuclear Network.

The new ICBM, Hanham said, appears large enough to be deployed⁶ with many warheads. It is so large that it may also be able to hold decoys, which are meant to confuse anti-missile systems.

Hanham noted⁷ that such missiles are not only costly, but they increase the cost of defense systems designed to stop them. She added that it is less costly and easier to build a new missile than to create a missile defense system.

Andkit Panda is a nuclear policy specialist at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He says the United States will have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to keep up with changes in North Korea's growing force.

The United Nations expanded sanctions against North Korea in 2017 after the country carried out a series of nuclear and ICBM tests. The U.S. and North Korea were involved in nuclear negotiations⁸ in 2018 and 2019. But North Korea eventually walked away, angry at the U.S. refusal to ease the sanctions and provide security guarantees.

U.S. officials have dismissed concerns that North Korea's missile program could produce a weapon able of avoid ground-based U.S. missile defenses.

In January, General John Hyten, vice⁹ chairman of the Joint¹⁰ Chiefs of Staff, said he had "100% confidence" in their ability.

However, independent defense experts wonder about U.S. missile defenses, especially if North Korea deploys¹¹ ICBMs with multiple warheads.

Markus Garlauskas and Bruce Perry are two former members of the U.S. intelligence community. They wrote that: "It is hard to see how Americans could be confident that...U.S. missile-defense interceptors would be sufficient to stop an attack...by North Korean ICBMs with multiple warheads each."

The two noted that building more interceptors might be too costly.

Is a test in the future likely?

North Korea's new ICBM, however, does have strategic issues. The missile is carried by a transporter launch vehicle that has at least 22 wheels. The launcher may be too large to travel on many North Korean roads, which are often in poor condition.

The large size of the missile also means it likely must travel with a team of fuel trucks and machinery¹² to help lift it, Hanham said. She added that preparing the missile for launch would take hours. That would permit observers to identify the missiles setup. In addition to that, the missile remains¹³ untested.

But some experts say that could change. In January, the North Korean leader said that he no longer felt he had to continue his own ban on nuclear and long-distance missile tests.

U.S. President Donald Trump¹⁴, however, has warned Kim against any provocations¹⁵ before the U.S. elections on November 3. Kim may be unwilling¹⁶ to risk such a test.

Bruce Klingner is a North Korea specialist at the Washington, D.C.-based Heritage Foundation.

Klinger told VOA, "What I would expect is to see that ICBM tested next year." He added: "North Korea tends to...do something very provocative¹⁷ in the first year of a new U.S. or South Korean administration."

Hanham said that North Korea may watch to see what happens in the U.S. elections. Although the North may choose to do nothing, they "have a powerful way of signaling their dissatisfaction now by testing this missile," she said.

Words in This Story

intercept⁴ –v. to stop and take someone or something that is going from one place to another place before that person or thing reaches their goal

multiple –adj. many, more than one

decoy –n. something that attracts attention so that something else can go unnoticed

confuse –v. to make someone unable to understand what is going on

sanctions –n. actions taken countries against another country to force it to obey international law

confidence –n. a feeling of belief that something can done

provocations –n. actions that are taken to cause someone or some group to become upset or angry

1 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

2 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

3 commentators   

n.评论员( commentator的名词复数 )；时事评论员；注释者；实况广播员

参考例句：

• Sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 体育解说员翻来覆去说着同样的词语，真叫人腻烦。
• Television sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 电视体育解说员说来说去就是那么几句话，令人厌烦。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 intercept   

vt.拦截，截住，截击

参考例句：

• His letter was intercepted by the Secret Service.他的信被特工处截获了。
• Gunmen intercepted him on his way to the airport.持枪歹徒在他去机场的路上截击了他。

5 intercepting   

截取（技术），截接

参考例句：

• The police had been intercepting my mail, ie reading it before it was delivered. 警方一直截查我的邮件。
• We've been intercepting radio transmissions from Moscow. 我们已从莫斯科拦截到无线电信号。

6 deployed   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Tanks have been deployed all along the front line. 沿整个前线已部署了坦克。
• The artillery was deployed to bear on the fort. 火炮是对着那个碉堡部署的。

7 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

8 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

9 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

10 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

11 deploys   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的第三人称单数 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• It then deploys "decoy" programs designed to attract the virus. 然后，它释放“诱饵”去吸引病毒。
• But when that doesn't work, he deploys his secret defense mechanism. 但没有效果，它要施展绝密自卫武器了。

12 machinery   

n.(总称)机械，机器；机构

参考例句：

• Has the machinery been put up ready for the broadcast?广播器材安装完毕了吗？
• Machinery ought to be well maintained all the time.机器应该随时注意维护。

13 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

14 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

15 provocations   

n.挑衅( provocation的名词复数 )；激怒；刺激；愤怒的原因

参考例句：

• We cannot ignore such provocations. 对于这种挑衅，我们不能置之不理。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• They must immediately cease all their provocations. 他们必须停止一切挑衅。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

16 unwilling   

adj.不情愿的

参考例句：

• The natives were unwilling to be bent by colonial power.土著居民不愿受殖民势力的摆布。
• His tightfisted employer was unwilling to give him a raise.他那吝啬的雇主不肯给他加薪。

17 provocative   

adj.挑衅的，煽动的，刺激的，挑逗的

参考例句：

• She wore a very provocative dress.她穿了一件非常性感的裙子。
• His provocative words only fueled the argument further.他的挑衅性讲话只能使争论进一步激化。