Broadcast: Jan 25 2003

At a session reviewing prospects for the U.S. economy, Secretary Evans sounded a note of optimism. "Inflation being low really does give you a lot of room to continue to pursue pro-growth policies to keep interest rates down, which allows consumers, [and] allows businesses, to deal with their debt load," he said. "Also, it allows you to pursue pro-growth ²⁾fiscal policies."

Secretary Evans dismissed concerns by some analysts at the Forum that the U.S. economy would find it difficult to sustain a war against Iraq. "We have a very resilient, flexible economy. A $10 ³⁾trillion economy. And so, when you put that in the context of a war - again let me put great emphasis on the fact that our goal is to solve this issue peacefully and avoid war - but still, if you want to take that step, I've seen estimates of war costs of $40 billion to $50 billion. But, still, in the context of a $10 trillion economy, I expect our economy to continue to move ahead," he said. "I expect it to be resilient and flexible, and be able to deal with the impact of a war."

Some analysts say, war with Iraq could cause the U.S. economy to contract by 1.2 percent for several quarters, even if oil prices are high for only a few weeks. Officials from the oil cartel, OPEC, say a new Gulf conflict could edge the world toward an oil crisis.

Secretary Evans acknowledged that oil surplus capacity, which has dropped considerably compared with the 1980s and 1990s, is low - three-to-four million barrels a day above consumption of 80-million barrels a day. He said available, affordable energy supplies were key to long-term economic growth.

Dale Gavlak, VOA news, Davos.

1)     World Economic Forum 世界经济论坛

2)     fiscal[5fiskEl]adj. 财政的, 国库的

3)     trillion[5triljEn]num. 万亿