Weather Forecasters Say El Nino May Soon Return

By Andrea Niem

Some meteorologists warn that a weather pattern known as El Nino may reemerge in the next few months, raising concerns of drought in Southeast  Asia and Australia, and flooding in parts of the Americas.

An El Nino occurs when the ocean surface off the western coast of South America warms up more than usual. The warmer ocean alters wind and rain patterns over much of the world, causing drought in some areas, such as Southeast Asia and floods in both North and South America.

The pattern often is noticed late in the year, the Christmas holiday, giving rise to the name, El Nino, which refers to the Christ child in Spanish.

Tobin Gorey, an economist¹ at Commonwealth² Bank in Sydney, says an El Nino, which typically lasts for a year, can do substantial damage to the agricultural sector³ of Asia-Pacific economies. That can hurt consumers.

"Without that rainfall, crops they're much more diminished," said Tobin Gorey. "So it does push up prices for agricultural products and diminishes their exports for Australia, but also increases the import bill for countries through Asia." Malaysia and Thailand suffered a big drop in the production of export staples⁴ such as rice and palm oil during the 1997-1998 El Nino, one of the worst in the past few decades.

Malaysia says a four-month El Nino would reduce its palm oil production by 20 percent.

Father Jose Villarin is head of the climate studies division of the Manila Observatory⁵ in the Philippines. He notes that many meteorologists think there was a mild El Nino less than two years ago, which means it is less likely there will be one this year. They tend to appear every two to seven years.

Still, he says, an El Nino can bring great misery⁶ to the Philippines.

"It really makes our people suffer," said Jose Villarin, "Our farmers. Rice, we have to import it in huge quantities just to feed our people."

Father Villarin says although weather forecasters cannot predict how destructive the next El Nino will be, diversifying⁷ cropping patterns can minimize the damage to farmers.

"So if we know that rice, for example, needs a lot of water, then we don't plant rice when El Nino is about to hit us, or we plant rice in a place where we're pretty sure there is at least some water," he said. "We don't plant rice where there's going to be drought. That will just be a waste of resources. It's really a disaster mitigation measure to cope with the lack of rain."

Some countries also worry about El Nino damage to the fishing industry. Warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific kills the plankton⁸ and other tiny organisms fish eat, and the fish then migrate to cooler northern waters. What is more, El Ninos often bring more storms to Asia, damaging coastlines and threatening fishing boats.

注释：
drought 干旱
Christ [基督教]救世主（特指耶稣基督）
Commonwealth Bank 澳洲联盟银行
substantial 实质的
rainfall 降雨
diminish （使）减少，（使）变小
feed 喂养
destructive 破坏（性）的
minimize 将...减到最少
mitigation 减轻
plankton 浮游生物

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 commonwealth   

n.共和国，联邦，共同体

参考例句：

• He is the chairman of the commonwealth of artists.他是艺术家协会的主席。
• Most of the members of the Commonwealth are nonwhite.英联邦的许多成员国不是白人国家。

3 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

4 staples   

n.（某国的）主要产品( staple的名词复数 )；钉书钉；U 形钉；主要部份v.用钉书钉钉住( staple的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• The anvil onto which the staples are pressed was not assemble correctly. 订书机上的铁砧安装错位。 来自辞典例句
• I'm trying to make an analysis of the staples of his talk. 我在试行分析他的谈话的要旨。 来自辞典例句

5 observatory   

n.天文台，气象台，瞭望台，观测台

参考例句：

• Guy's house was close to the observatory.盖伊的房子离天文台很近。
• Officials from Greenwich Observatory have the clock checked twice a day.格林威治天文台的职员们每天对大钟检查两次。

6 misery   

n.痛苦，苦恼，苦难；悲惨的境遇，贫苦

参考例句：

• Business depression usually causes misery among the working class.商业不景气常使工薪阶层受苦。
• He has rescued me from the mire of misery.他把我从苦海里救了出来。

7 diversifying   

v.使多样化，多样化( diversify的现在分词 )；进入新的商业领域

参考例句：

• Some publishers are now diversifying into software. 有些出版社目前正兼营软件。 来自辞典例句
• Silverlit is diversifying into new markets, such as Russia and Eastern Europe. Silverlit正在使他们的市场变得多样化，开发新的市场如俄罗斯和东欧国家。 来自互联网

8 plankton   

n.浮游生物

参考例句：

• Plankton is at the bottom of the marine food chain.浮游生物处于海洋食物链的最底层。
• The plankton in the sea feeds many kinds of animals. 海的浮游生物成为很多种动物的食物。