Polls Suggest November US Presidential

 

Jim Malone

Public opinion polls suggest the November election between President Bush and his presumed Democratic opponent, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, will be close. Even though the election is still more than seven months away, the two candidates are engaging one another earlier and spending more money at this stage than in any recent campaign for the White House.
Historically, general election campaigns for the presidency¹ begin in early September, well after the party nominating conventions that decide the Republican and Democratic candidates for president.
But this year everything seems earlier than usual. Senator John Kerry's early success in the Democratic primaries allowed him to focus on the man he will run against in November, President Bush.
"If the president wants to have a debate a month on just one subject and we go around the country, I think that would be a great idea," Sen. Kerry said. "Let's go do it."
The president has also been mentioning Senator Kerry in his speeches, focusing on the Massachusetts Democrat's long record in the Senate and what Mr. Bush calls a history of switching positions on several issues.
At the same time, the president is traveling the country, touting³ his record on terrorism and national security and promising⁴ an improved economy, including more jobs.
"And we will remain the leading economy in the world because America will remain the best place to do business in the world," Mr. Bush said.
There has also been an upsurge in television advertisements on behalf of both candidates.
The president's re-election committee has started with ads emphasizing the positive aspects of the Bush record. But later ones are expected to be critical of Senator Kerry.
"President Bush - steady leadership in times of change," says one Bush ad.
The Kerry campaign has far less money to run ads of its own. But political groups sympathetic to Senator Kerry and the Democratic Party have begun running ads critical of the president in an attempt to even out the playing field.
"President Bush - remember the American dream. It's about hope, not fear," says a pro-Kerry ad.
Republicans complain that the ads attacking the president are illegal because they violate the new campaign finance law that prohibits political parties from coordinating⁵ with private groups on political advertising⁶.
Most political experts see this as simply the tip of the iceberg⁷ in terms of negative political attacks and advertising this year.
If the election is going to be as close as the polls suggest, both parties are expected to spend a lot of money and effort urging their core supporters to get out and vote in November.
Stephen Wayne is a political scientist at Georgetown University in Washington D.C. "Most of our evidence suggests that negative ads which candidates run do seem to influence voters and they certainly do hold the base [of a candidate's support] and get out the base [encourage them to vote]. So, if I'm right that you really want to generate the base of each party, then each side will launch pretty nasty ads against the other side."
Another challenge for both candidates will be appealing to the relatively⁸ small group of undecided or 'swing' voters who make up their minds in the final stages of a presidential campaign.
Tom Defrank is the Washington Bureau Chief of the New York Daily News and a frequent guest on VOA's Issues in the News program. He says U.S. presidential elections tend to be a referendum on the incumbent⁹, a fact that the president's re-election team is well aware of.
"They [Bush campaign] understand that and that is why it is important to them that Osama bin¹⁰ Laden¹¹ get captured. That is why it is important for them for the turnover¹² of authority in Iraq to go as scheduled on June 30," he says. "It is important for them that the economy continues to improve because all those things will help or hurt President Bush, depending on how they sort out."
But the length of this campaign could be a problem for both candidates. A number of experts warn that a general election campaign stretching nearly eight months could turn off voters as much as engage them, making it more important than ever that the two major parties encourage their voters to get to the polls on election day.

注释：
presumed [pri5zju:md] v. 推测
presidency [5prezidEnsi] n. 总统任期
convention [kEn5venFEn] n. 惯例，协议
tout² [taut] vi. [美] 拉选票
upsurge [Qp5sE:dV] n. 高潮
aspect [5Aspekt] n. 方面
violate [5vaiEleit] vt. 干扰，违反
referendum [7refE5rendEm] n. 公民表决，公民投票
incumbent [in5kQmbEnt] n. [美]（政府、团体等的）在职者
turnover [5tE:n7EuvE] n. 剧变突然的变化

1 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

2 tout   

v.推销，招徕；兜售；吹捧，劝诱

参考例句：

• They say it will let them tout progress in the war.他们称这将有助于鼓吹他们在战争中的成果。
• If your case studies just tout results,don't bother requiring registration to view them.如果你的案例研究只是吹捧结果，就别烦扰别人来注册访问了。

3 touting   

v.兜售( tout的现在分词 )；招揽；侦查；探听赛马情报

参考例句：

• He's been touting his novel around publishers for years. 他几年来一直到处找出版商兜售自己的小说。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Technology industry leaders are touting cars as a hot area for growth. 科技产业领袖吹捧为增长热点地区的汽车。 来自互联网

4 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

5 coordinating   

v.使协调，使调和( coordinate的现在分词 )；协调；协同；成为同等

参考例句：

• He abolished the Operations Coordinating Board and the Planning Board. 他废除了行动协调委员会和计划委员会。 来自辞典例句
• He's coordinating the wedding, and then we're not going to invite him? 他是来协调婚礼的，难道我们不去请他？ 来自电影对白

6 advertising   

n.广告业；广告活动 a.广告的；广告业务的

参考例句：

• Can you give me any advice on getting into advertising? 你能指点我如何涉足广告业吗?
• The advertising campaign is aimed primarily at young people. 这个广告宣传运动主要是针对年轻人的。

7 iceberg   

n.冰山，流冰，冷冰冰的人

参考例句：

• The ship hit an iceberg and went under.船撞上一座冰山而沉没了。
• The glacier calved a large iceberg.冰河崩解而形成一个大冰山。

8 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

9 incumbent   

adj.成为责任的，有义务的；现任的，在职的

参考例句：

• He defeated the incumbent governor by a large plurality.他以压倒多数票击败了现任州长。
• It is incumbent upon you to warn them.你有责任警告他们。

10 bin   

n.箱柜；vt.放入箱内；[计算机] DOS文件名:二进制目标文件

参考例句：

• He emptied several bags of rice into a bin.他把几袋米倒进大箱里。
• He threw the empty bottles in the bin.他把空瓶子扔进垃圾箱。

11 laden   

adj.装满了的；充满了的；负了重担的；苦恼的

参考例句：

• He is laden with heavy responsibility.他肩负重任。
• Dragging the fully laden boat across the sand dunes was no mean feat.将满载货物的船拖过沙丘是一件了不起的事。

12 turnover   

n.人员流动率，人事变动率；营业额，成交量

参考例句：

• The store greatly reduced the prices to make a quick turnover.这家商店实行大减价以迅速周转资金。
• Our turnover actually increased last year.去年我们的营业额竟然增加了。