OECD Says Oil Prices and Inflation Not Hurting Industrial Ec

 

By Douglas Bakshian

A leading economic think-tank sees a strong recovery in the second half of the year for major industrial economies, in spite of high oil prices, and says inflation is not yet a concern.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, in an interim¹ report, says oil prices have so far had only a limited impact on core inflation and wages in the world's major economies.

Oil has recently traded around $46 a barrel - much higher than normal. However, Jean-Philipe Cotis, the chief economist² for the OECD, told VOA that the impact of an oil price hike is a lot smaller today than it was 30 years ago during the first oil shock.

"Industrial economies are well equipped to deal with this uncertainty³. Although we would do a lot better without this uncertainty, in any case, they should be able to withstand this sort of perturbation in the future."

Mr. Cotis also says inflation is not yet a concern and governments will be able to allow interest rates to remain low.

"Inflation expectations have not moved a lot despite the small oil price shock we had. It means that price stability is well anchored in our economy and monetary⁴ policy will not have to tighten⁵ prematurely⁶."

The OECD has slightly lowered its 2004 forecast for economic growth in the United States to 4.3 percent, from 4.7 percent. However, in the 12-nation euro-zone the growth forecast has increased to two percent, and for Japan it has increased to 4.4 percent.

Mr. Cotis told VOA that all evidence indicates there will be a strong recovery in the second half of the year in the industrialized countries, to be followed by what he expects to be a robust⁷ expansion.

Douglas Bakshian for VOA news, Luxembourg.
注释：
think-tank 智囊团
inflation 通货膨胀
interim 临时的，中间的
barrel 桶
withstand 抵挡，经受住
monetary policy 货币政策
prematurely 过早地
robust 强势的，充沛的

1 interim   

adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间

参考例句：

• The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
• It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

4 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

5 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

6 prematurely   

adv.过早地，贸然地

参考例句：

• She was born prematurely with poorly developed lungs. 她早产，肺部未发育健全。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• His hair was prematurely white, but his busy eyebrows were still jet-black. 他的头发已经白了，不过两道浓眉还是乌黑乌黑的。 来自辞典例句

7 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。