到2050年，我们居住的城市将更加拥挤

By 2050, We will Live in a More Populous¹, Urban World

到2050年，我们居住的城市将更加拥挤

 

Demographers³ say India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia and Bangladesh will account for close to a half of the people born in the next 45 years.

 

Joseph Chamie: By far India is the leader, which gives about a fifth of all the world’s growth today.

 

Joseph Chamie, Director of Research at the Center for Migration⁴ Studies in New York, who served as Director of the United Nations Population Division for 25 years.

 

Joseph Chamie: The world is growing at 76 million people every year now and India contributes about a fifth of that. That’s followed by China, which is about ten percent and Pakistan at four percent; Nigeria, Indonesia and Bangladesh, each at around four percent.

 

By contrast, some 50 countries will see a decline in population, says Mr. Chamie. The Russian Federation⁵ is expected to lose the most in absolute numbers: about 31 million people, followed by Ukraine, which could lose 20 million, and Japan 16 million. Ukraine’s decline is especially noteworthy because it translates into a loss of 43 percent of its population, compared to 22 percent for the Russian Federation.

 

Overall, the world’s population is still growing. But demographers say the growth rate is slowing. William Butz, President of the Population Reference Bureau here in Washington, says that since then [the 1970s], people in almost every corner of the world have had fewer children. He says that 65 countries, which account for 43 percent of the world’s population, now have fertility rates at the replacement⁶ level, which is two children per couple on average.

 

William Butz: Principally it is because their desired fertility has gone down and they have the means to control their fertility. On the point of desired fertility, it’s because of education of women. It’s because of higher incomes, because of cultural norms shifting to smaller families. And on the side of the ability to control fertility, it’s the increasing accessibility and availability of modern family planning methods.

 

But some analysts⁷ note that in these methods are often unavailable to the poor. Jay Keller, National Field Director of the private non-profit group Population Connection also in Washington, says unlimited⁸ population growth puts a strain on the already scarce resources in many developing countries.

 

Jay Keller: What worries us the most is that rapid population growth is occurring in countries that are least able to absorb it and to deal with it: countries that don’t have a very good health care system right now, countries that don’t have very good retirement⁹ system right now. So that’s a huge challenge if you have a developing country that’s trying to just basically figure out how to feed people and how to provide education for children. And suddenly you have a birth rate that is in some cases going to double the population of that country in maybe 25-35 years.

 

Mr. Keller notes that people are moving to urban areas, creating “megacities,” such as Tokyo, Shanghai, Mexico City and Sao Paulo, often threaten the environment and strain resources.

 

But many analysts are optimistic, noting some significant improvements in the world’s living conditions in recent decades. Overall, mortality rates have declined and people live longer. Demographer² Joseph Chamie says this means that the quality of life has improved for most of the world.

 

Joseph Chamie: I mean can you remember in many countries, the child can not remember their grandfathers because they died early. Now you have a chance not only to see your grandfather, but your great-grandfather and your great-grandmother. So you have many generations.

 

Demographers expect that by 2050, the global life expectancy¹⁰ at birth will have increased by at least ten years. But as William Butz of the Population Reference Bureau notes, this also means that the world population is slowly aging.

 

William Butz: Partly this is due to China, which after all, has about one fifth of the world’s population. And the Chinese population is definitely aging because their numbers of birth have been relatively¹¹ slow now for decades. But it isn’t just China. The U-S, all of Western Europe, other countries with relatively low fertility rates, Thailand, you could also include South Korea and certainly Japan, are aging. In many parts of Africa, life expectancy is also going up. However, in Africa there are two things going on that countervail this. One is the relatively high fertility rates in many countries, almost all of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, which keeps the number of young people high and keeps the population overall from aging. And the second is H-I-V /AIDS, which in many of these countries is devastating¹² parts of the population.

 

By the middle of this century, the proportion of people in the world who are 65 years of age or older is expected to more than double, from seven to 15 %. Analysts say this will force countries with substantial aging populations to make long term plans for their continued employment, health care and retirement, something the United States is already doing. Some countries may also have to find a way to attract a younger immigrant labor¹³ force who, by paying taxes, will help finance government retirement funds and health care for the elderly.

 

Analysts predict that there will be demographic challenges ahead for the world. But, they say, history shows that problems can be overcome through informed policy making and careful planning for the future.

 

For focus, I’m Zlatica Hoke.

 

注释：

demographer [di:5mC^rEfE(r)] n. 人口统计学家

Bangladesh [7bB:N^lE5deF] n. 孟加拉国（亚洲）

noteworthy [5nEutwE:Ti] adj. 值得注意的，显著的

fertility rate 人口出生率，生育率

norm [nC:m] n. 准则，行为标准

megacity [5me^E7siti] n.（人口超过100万的）大城市

Sao Paulo 圣保罗

optimistic [7Cpti5mistik] adj. 乐观的

life expectancy 平均寿命

countervail [5kauntEveil] vt. 补偿，抵销

1 populous   

adj.人口稠密的，人口众多的

参考例句：

• London is the most populous area of Britain.伦敦是英国人口最稠密的地区。
• China is the most populous developing country in the world.中国是世界上人口最多的发展中国家。

2 demographer   

n.人口统计学家

参考例句：

• Professor Antonio Golini is a demographer at the University of Rome. 罗马大学安东尼奥教授是位人口统计学家。 来自互联网
• Demographer William Frey says immigrants with young families will help keep the United States competitive. 人口统计学家佛瑞表示这些年轻的家庭会帮助美国保持竞争力。 来自互联网

3 demographers   

n.人口统计学( demography的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Demographers, however, point out that the'single" trend will have a profound effect on American institutions. 不过，人口学家们指出，“单身”趋势将对美国的公共机构产生深远的影响。 来自时文部分
• Selectivity of human migration long been the focus of demographers and economists. 人口迁移的选择性一直以来都是人口学家和经济学家关注的焦点。 来自互联网

4 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

5 federation   

n.同盟，联邦，联合，联盟，联合会

参考例句：

• It is a federation of 10 regional unions.它是由十个地方工会结合成的联合会。
• Mr.Putin was inaugurated as the President of the Russian Federation.普京正式就任俄罗斯联邦总统。

6 replacement   

n.取代，替换，交换；替代品，代用品

参考例句：

• We are hard put to find a replacement for our assistant.我们很难找到一个人来代替我们的助手。
• They put all the students through the replacement examination.他们让所有的学生参加分班考试。

7 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

8 unlimited   

adj.无限的，不受控制的，无条件的

参考例句：

• They flew over the unlimited reaches of the Arctic.他们飞过了茫茫无边的北极上空。
• There is no safety in unlimited technological hubris.在技术方面自以为是会很危险。

9 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。

10 expectancy   

n.期望，预期，（根据概率统计求得）预期数额

参考例句：

• Japanese people have a very high life expectancy.日本人的平均寿命非常长。
• The atomosphere of tense expectancy sobered everyone.这种期望的紧张气氛使每个人变得严肃起来。

11 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

12 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。

13 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。