2006年VOA标准英语-Former Weapons Inspector, Experts Warn Against

By Dan Robinson
Capitol Hill
12 October 2006

Experts are urging the Bush administration to use patience and caution in its approach to Iran over its nuclear ambitions.  The comments by former U.S. weapons inspector¹ David Kay and others at an event on Capitol Hill Wednesday came as President Bush and other officials reiterated² a call for Iran to end its uranium enrichment efforts and reach a peaceful and negotiated solution. 

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David Kay (file photo)   
  
David Kay, who has been critical of the Bush administration's faulty pre-war intelligence on weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, says Washington needs to proceed cautiously because serious questions remain about its ability to assess realities on the ground in Iran.

While the government in Tehran has established what he calls "a substantial foundation" for a nuclear weapons program, Kay asserts any serious threat is at least five years and possibly 10 or more years away.

"Iran does not today, and in my judgment³ will not for some time, pose a nuclear threat to the United States or the state of the [Middle East] region," Kay said.

Assuming Iran's government has or does proceed with a weapons program, Kay says it will find the process long and expensive, presenting many negotiating opportunities.

However, Kay and others, citing media reports in recent months, worry that some officials in the Bush administration may be pressing for military action and regime change in Iran.

That would be a huge mistake, says Joseph Cirincione, another critic of the administration approach on Iran.

He asserts the impasse⁴ with North Korea, which now claims to have tested a nuclear weapon, underscores the need for a different course with regard to Iran.

"The longer you wait, the higher the price of a deal and the greater the risk that you won't get any deal at all," Cirincione said. "If they conclude, like the North Koreans concluded, that there is no bargaining with these people, there is no satisfying, and there is a faction⁵ in Iran that believes this, that the administration has decided⁶ to change the regime."

Cirincione asserts a heated debate is under way within the administration, between supporters and opponents of military action against Iran.

Sam Gardiner, a retired⁷ U.S. Air Force Colonel and instructor⁸ at the National War College, has stirred controversy⁹ by spelling out in some detail what he believes is administration contingency¹⁰ planning if a decision were made to go ahead with a military strike.

"The next step on the table is to escalate¹¹ this not to a ground operation, but to an air strike, which would probably in its initial stages be five nights,"  he said. "In those five nights we will attack the known nuclear facilities.  In addition to that we will attack some of the Iranian military capabilities¹²."

Such a course, Gardiner predicts, would trigger numerous negative reactions, such as stepped up attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, Iranian actions against shipping¹³ through the Strait of Hormuz, and Hezbollah action against Israel.

In response to recent media reports speculating about possible U.S. military action against Iran, U.S. officials have pointed¹⁴ out that contingency planning is routinely done at the Pentagon, but that no decisions regarding specific action against Iran have been made.  In addition, President Bush, as recently as Wednesday, has emphasized that he intends to pursue a diplomatic approach to Iran's nuclear ambitions.

In any case, several of the experts who participated in a Capitol Hill panel discussion Wednesday say the president would have great difficulty selling any major military action against Iran to Congress.

Dennis Kucinich (file photo)   
  
Congressman¹⁵ Dennis Kucinich is a Democrat¹⁶ who organized the event.

"It would be the view of this member of Congress that this president would not have the ability to unilaterally order an attack, while we understand with the War Powers Act if he does order an attack anyway he still has to come back to Congress, but I think in this case given the gravity of it he would have to go to Congress first," he said.

Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, says the U.S. needs to stop treating negotiations¹⁷ with Iran's government as, in his words, a concession¹⁸ or sign of weakness.

Military action, says Parsi, would merely result in the U.S. losing the battle for the hearts and minds of Iranians.

"If history is to repeat itself, as it so often does, then an attack on Iran would likely result in Iranians rallying around the flag, rather than people turning on their government as [former Iraqi dictator] Saddam thought they would," Parsi said.  "The Iranian government would strengthen its hold on the country rather than be toppled."

Though President Bush has underscored the need for patient diplomacy¹⁹ regarding Iran, he adds that no option has been taken off the table.
 

President Bush speaks during  news conference in Rose Garden of the White House, Oct. 11, 2006  
  
In a news conference Wednesday, he said he continues to believe the U.S. needs to deal with Iran and North Korea "with more than one voice."

"The United States' message to North Korea and Iran and the people in both countries is that we have - we want to solve issues peacefully," Mr. Bush said.  "We said there's a better way forward for you. Here's a chance, for example, to help your country economically. And all you got to do is verifiably show that you - in Iran's case, that you suspended your weapons program."

Iran vowed²⁰ Wednesday to continue its nuclear program, which it says is intended for peaceful purposes, not weaponry.  The U.S. and other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council are working to develop possible sanctions because of Tehran's defiance²¹ of calls to suspend its nuclear enrichment activities.

1 inspector   

n.检查员，监察员，视察员

参考例句：

• The inspector was interested in everything pertaining to the school.视察员对有关学校的一切都感兴趣。
• The inspector was shining a flashlight onto the tickets.查票员打着手电筒查看车票。

2 reiterated   

反复地说，重申( reiterate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• "Well, I want to know about it,'she reiterated. “嗯，我一定要知道你的休假日期，"她重复说。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹
• Some twenty-two years later President Polk reiterated and elaborated upon these principles. 大约二十二年之后，波尔克总统重申这些原则并且刻意阐释一番。

3 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

4 impasse   

n.僵局；死路

参考例句：

• The government had reached an impasse.政府陷入绝境。
• Negotiations seemed to have reached an impasse.谈判似乎已经陷入僵局。

5 faction   

n.宗派，小集团；派别；派系斗争

参考例句：

• Faction and self-interest appear to be the norm.派系之争和自私自利看来非常普遍。
• I now understood clearly that I was caught between the king and the Bunam's faction.我现在完全明白自己已陷入困境，在国王与布纳姆集团之间左右为难。

6 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

7 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

8 instructor   

n.指导者，教员，教练

参考例句：

• The college jumped him from instructor to full professor.大学突然把他从讲师提升为正教授。
• The skiing instructor was a tall,sunburnt man.滑雪教练是一个高高个子晒得黑黑的男子。

9 controversy   

n.争论，辩论，争吵

参考例句：

• That is a fact beyond controversy.那是一个无可争论的事实。
• We ran the risk of becoming the butt of every controversy.我们要冒使自己在所有的纷争中都成为众矢之的的风险。

10 contingency   

n.意外事件，可能性

参考例句：

• We should be prepared for any contingency.我们应该对任何应急情况有所准备。
• A fire in our warehouse was a contingency that we had not expected.库房的一场大火是我们始料未及的。

11 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

12 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

13 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

14 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

15 Congressman   

n.（美）国会议员

参考例句：

• He related several anecdotes about his first years as a congressman.他讲述自己初任议员那几年的几则轶事。
• The congressman is meditating a reply to his critics.这位国会议员正在考虑给他的批评者一个答复。

16 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

17 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

18 concession   

n.让步，妥协；特许(权)

参考例句：

• We can not make heavy concession to the matter.我们在这个问题上不能过于让步。
• That is a great concession.这是很大的让步。

19 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

20 vowed   

起誓，发誓（vow的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• He vowed quite solemnly that he would carry out his promise. 他非常庄严地发誓要实现他的诺言。
• I vowed to do more of the cooking myself. 我发誓自己要多动手做饭。

21 defiance   

n.挑战，挑衅，蔑视，违抗

参考例句：

• He climbed the ladder in defiance of the warning.他无视警告爬上了那架梯子。
• He slammed the door in a spirit of defiance.他以挑衅性的态度把门砰地一下关上。