2006年VOA标准英语-Study Shows Costs of a Worldwide Pandemic: Stag

By Mil Arcega
Washington, DC
14 November 2006
 
warch Pandemic Impact

A specialized¹ information network known as MIDAS, short for Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study, shows an avian flu outbreak could wreak² serious havoc³ on people and economies around the world. 

 
H5N1 bird flu virus
Since 2003, H5N1, better known as the avian flu virus, has spread to nine countries, mostly in Asia and Africa.  Health experts fear the bird-borne virus could mutate and spread among humans.  If that happens, new computer models suggest the outcome would not only be deadly, it could also cripple the global economy.

 
Joshua Epstein
Joshua Epstein is a member of the computer simulation project. "We have computer scientists and epidemiologists and demographers⁴ and economists⁵ and very diverse teams of people contributing to aspects of the modeling,” he said.  “And government agencies, for example: the transportation data needs to be obtained from the FAA and other agencies. So it involves big-time computing⁶, big-time expertise⁷ and a lot of quite creative collaboration⁸, not a small project.”

The project's objective is to develop strategies that would limit the worst outcome of a global epidemic¹⁰.  Warwick McKibbin, an international economics professor, says an uncontrolled outbreak of pandemic influenza¹¹ in Southeast Asia would send shock waves around the world.

 
Warwick McKibbin 
"When people get sick or die the labor⁹ supply changes. People don't go to work or they die.  That changes the capacity of the economy to produce.  It disrupts production, that's one serious shock.  Another shock is that industry has to take some sort of action and that usually raises costs, depending on your industry it could raise costs a lot -- in the tourism industry for example," said McKibbin.

And there's a wide range of scenarios¹³.  McKibbin says the mildest foresees a nearly one percent drop in the world's gross domestic product.

"For the most severe, the ultra scenario¹², it was very dramatic.  We had over $4.4 trillion wiped off the world economy.  140 million people killed.  So the individual consequences were severe -- the death rates.  But the economic consequences were also severe."

Hardest hit would be developing countries.  Mckibbin says that's because some don't have the economic resources to prevent an outbreak or adequate health care to deal with the effects. 

Epstein says the computer models should help scientists develop effective containment¹⁴ strategies. "Interrupting the flow of people from hemisphere to hemisphere is part of that approach.  It buys time in which you can do other intelligent things like develop vaccines¹⁵ and engage in social distancing and other measures to reduce the spread."

Unfortunately, McKibbin says, most countries are not doing enough. "I don't think we are.  We certainly are not spending enough in developing countries in public health systems for example.  Because by the time this pandemic influenza breaks out from Asia, you can't stop it at the border.  So what really matters is preventing it in the first place."

And Mckibbin says their findings show something else: that preventing a pandemic would cost far less than having to deal with its aftermath.

1 specialized   

adj.专门的，专业化的

参考例句：

• There are many specialized agencies in the United Nations.联合国有许多专门机构。
• These tools are very specialized.这些是专用工具。

2 wreak   

v.发泄；报复

参考例句：

• She had a burning desire to wreak revenge.她复仇心切。
• Timid people always wreak their peevishness on the gentle.怯懦的人总是把满腹牢骚向温和的人发泄。

3 havoc   

n.大破坏，浩劫，大混乱，大杂乱

参考例句：

• The earthquake wreaked havoc on the city.地震对这个城市造成了大破坏。
• This concentration of airborne firepower wrought havoc with the enemy forces.这次机载火力的集中攻击给敌军造成很大破坏。

4 demographers   

n.人口统计学( demography的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Demographers, however, point out that the'single" trend will have a profound effect on American institutions. 不过，人口学家们指出，“单身”趋势将对美国的公共机构产生深远的影响。 来自时文部分
• Selectivity of human migration long been the focus of demographers and economists. 人口迁移的选择性一直以来都是人口学家和经济学家关注的焦点。 来自互联网

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 computing   

n.计算

参考例句：

• to work in computing 从事信息处理
• Back in the dark ages of computing, in about 1980, they started a software company. 早在计算机尚未普及的时代（约1980年），他们就创办了软件公司。

7 expertise   

n.专门知识(或技能等)，专长

参考例句：

• We were amazed at his expertise on the ski slopes.他斜坡滑雪的技能使我们赞叹不已。
• You really have the technical expertise in a new breakthrough.让你真正在专业技术上有一个全新的突破。

8 collaboration   

n.合作，协作；勾结

参考例句：

• The two companies are working in close collaboration each other.这两家公司密切合作。
• He was shot for collaboration with the enemy.他因通敌而被枪毙了。

9 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

10 epidemic   

n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的

参考例句：

• That kind of epidemic disease has long been stamped out.那种传染病早已绝迹。
• The authorities tried to localise the epidemic.当局试图把流行病限制在局部范围。

11 influenza   

n.流行性感冒，流感

参考例句：

• They took steps to prevent the spread of influenza.他们采取措施
• Influenza is an infectious disease.流感是一种传染病。

12 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

13 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

14 containment   

n.阻止，遏制；容量

参考例句：

• Your list might include such things as cost containment,quality,or customer satisfaction.你的清单上应列有诸如成本控制、产品质量、客户满意程度等内容。
• Insularity and self-containment,it is argued,go hand in hand.他们争论说，心胸狭窄和自我封闭是并存的。

15 vaccines   

疫苗，痘苗( vaccine的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His team are at the forefront of scientific research into vaccines. 他的小组处于疫苗科研的最前沿。
• The vaccines were kept cool in refrigerators. 疫苗放在冰箱中冷藏。