2006年VOA标准英语-Philippine President Likely to Weather Pol

By Heda Bayron
Hong Kong
02 March 2006

As President Gloria Arroyo¹ considers lifting emergency rule in the Philippines following last week's reported coup² attempt, questions have been raised about her political future. Mrs. Arroyo has so far survived all challenges to her legitimacy³ to rule and analysts⁴ predict that she will continue -  but the conflict is leaving the nation divided and her government paralyzed. VOA's Heda Bayron in our Asia News Center in Hong Kong examines where Mrs. Arroyo's presidency⁵ is headed.

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Gloria Arroyo delivers speech on national television  
  

From the very start of her presidency, the question of legitimacy has hounded Gloria Arroyo. Assuming power in 2001 after her predecessor⁶, Joseph Estrada, was ousted⁷ by popular protests backed by the military, Mrs. Arroyo has been accused of cheating her way into office. The same accusations⁸ surfaced in 2004, after she was elected to a six-year term by a narrow margin⁹.

She has also been accused of election fraud and corruption¹⁰.  Yet despite a military mutiny in 2003, and a congressional impeachment¹¹ and mass cabinet resignations last year, the diminutive¹² Mrs. Arroyo has successfully defied attempts to force her to step down.

Last week, she took the drastic step of declaring a state of emergency, to protect her presidency against what she said was a conspiracy¹³ among elements of the armed forces, the opposition¹⁴ and the communist movement to drive her illegally from office.

She ordered several military officers and politicians arrested and curtailed¹⁵ the right to protest - even threatening to close down media outlets¹⁶ that defied her orders. 

 
Student protesters shout slogans as they block busy street calling for ouster of Philippine President Gloria Arroyo in Manila,  Feb. 21, 2006
  
Political analysts say that with or without special powers, Mrs. Arroyo's troubles will not go away.  For one thing, they say, as long as there is a disgruntled military and an adventurous¹⁷ opposition, the threat remains¹⁸.

"It will be a constant, chronic¹⁹ problem," says Renato de Castro, a politics professor at De La Salle University in Manila.  "The next question of course, is, would the next attempt succeed or not?"

This is not the first time a perceived threat to her presidency has led Mrs. Arroyo to take decisive action. In 2001, she imposed a brief state of rebellion - which also allowed for detention²⁰ without charge - to stop riots outside the presidential palace.  She did this again during the military mutiny of 2003.

The opposition has denounced the state of emergency as illegal and called for its suspension. The United States and international rights groups have also called on Mrs. Arroyo to lift the declaration. She says she will decide by Saturday whether or not to do so.

The Philippines has experienced a number of coup attempts - all unsuccessful - since 1986, when a military rebellion and mass protests ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos.

Junior military officers often complain of low pay and demoralizing corruption among their commanding officers. The mutiny by a group of young officers in 2003 rattled²¹ Mrs. Arroyo and prompted her to promise to reform the armed forces. But political analysts say grievances²² continue to simmer - encouraged by opposition politicians who see the military as vehicle for overthrowing²³ her.

The opposition has presented no clear picture of what ousting²⁴ her would achieve, however. De Castro says should another attempt succeed, it would only breed further political turmoil²⁵.

"You'll have a banana republic. Undermine the political institutions and every now and then you would have a government that would be ousted," he says.

But political analysts generally agree Mrs. Arroyo is likely to weather this latest crisis.

Patricio Abinales, an expert on Philippine politics at Kyoto University in Japan, says Mrs. Arroyo's opponents have underestimated her ability to hang on - even in the face of low public support.  He says this is partly thanks to what he calls an "unimaginative" opposition.

"One really weird²⁶ thing about coups²⁷ and protests in the Philippines is the constant repetition… They can't think of another way. The other thing is that everybody talks about it. So basically you don't have to be smart to see these guys are going to do it," Abinales says.

Belinda Aquino of the University of Hawaii, another Philippines expert, says the opposition is failing to attract public support - a key element in the two previous ousters of Philippine presidents - because it has not provided a credible²⁸ alternative to Mrs. Arroyo.

Her predecessor, Joseph Estrada, is in detention, and the man she defeated in 2004, Fernando Poe Junior, died not long after the election. Her vice²⁹ president, Noli de Castro, is a former broadcaster with little experience in national politics.  Professor Aquino sees his support base as limited.

"The alternative would have been Noli de Castro - the vice president. He is nowhere near the kind of position that Arroyo was as a successor of Estrada," Aquino says. "You see, that's the kind of calculation on the part of the people: if it's just Noli de Castro, is it worth it?"

Patricio Abinales of Kyoto University says Mrs. Arroyo counts on the continued support of the provinces - where she received the most votes in the last election.  There have been few protests against her there.

"Arroyo is confident that she has the support of the provincial³⁰ politicians," he says.  "As long as the opposition is mainly urban, middle class, Manila-based, I think she's pretty confident that she would last her term."

Political analysts say constant political crises have made Filipinos indifferent to the political maneuverings of the ruling elite³¹, who have failed to address prevalent poverty.

While Mrs. Arroyo may succeed in keeping herself in power for four more years, analysts say she needs to heal a divided nation. In the past, following similar destabilization attempts, she has worked to compromise with her opponents, by doling³² out government funds and enacting³³ some reforms. So far, she has made no proposals on how to move forward this time.

1 arroyo   

n.干涸的河床，小河

参考例句：

• She continued along the path until she came to the arroyo.她沿着小路一直走到小河边。
• They had a picnic by the arroyo.他们在干枯的河床边野餐过。

2 coup   

n.政变；突然而成功的行动

参考例句：

• The monarch was ousted by a military coup.那君主被军事政变者废黜了。
• That government was overthrown in a military coup three years ago.那个政府在3年前的军事政变中被推翻。

3 legitimacy   

n.合法，正当

参考例句：

• The newspaper was directly challenging the government's legitimacy.报纸直接质疑政府的合法性。
• Managing from the top down,we operate with full legitimacy.我们进行由上而下的管理有充分的合法性。

4 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

5 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

6 predecessor   

n.前辈，前任

参考例句：

• It will share the fate of its predecessor.它将遭受与前者同样的命运。
• The new ambassador is more mature than his predecessor.新大使比他的前任更成熟一些。

7 ousted   

驱逐( oust的过去式和过去分词 )； 革职； 罢黜； 剥夺

参考例句：

• He was ousted as chairman. 他的主席职务被革除了。
• He may be ousted by a military takeover. 他可能在一场军事接管中被赶下台。

8 accusations   

n.指责( accusation的名词复数 )；指控；控告；（被告发、控告的）罪名

参考例句：

• There were accusations of plagiarism. 曾有过关于剽窃的指控。
• He remained unruffled by their accusations. 对于他们的指控他处之泰然。

9 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

10 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

11 impeachment   

n.弹劾；控告；怀疑

参考例句：

• Impeachment is considered a drastic measure in the United States.在美国，弹劾被视为一种非常激烈的措施。
• The verdict resulting from his impeachment destroyed his political career.他遭弹劾后得到的判决毁了他的政治生涯。

12 diminutive   

adj.小巧可爱的，小的

参考例句：

• Despite its diminutive size,the car is quite comfortable.尽管这辆车很小，但相当舒服。
• She has diminutive hands for an adult.作为一个成年人，她的手显得非常小。

13 conspiracy   

n.阴谋，密谋，共谋

参考例句：

• The men were found guilty of conspiracy to murder.这些人被裁决犯有阴谋杀人罪。
• He claimed that it was all a conspiracy against him.他声称这一切都是一场针对他的阴谋。

14 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

15 curtailed   

v.截断，缩短( curtail的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Spending on books has been severely curtailed. 购书开支已被大大削减。
• Their public health programme had to be severely curtailed. 他们的公共卫生计划不得不大大收缩。 来自《简明英汉词典》

16 outlets   

n.出口( outlet的名词复数 )；经销店；插座；廉价经销店

参考例句：

• The dumping of foreign cotton blocked outlets for locally grown cotton. 外国棉花的倾销阻滞了当地生产的棉花的销路。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They must find outlets for their products. 他们必须为自己的产品寻找出路。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

17 adventurous   

adj.爱冒险的；惊心动魄的，惊险的，刺激的　

参考例句：

• I was filled with envy at their adventurous lifestyle.我很羨慕他们敢于冒险的生活方式。
• He was predestined to lead an adventurous life.他注定要过冒险的生活。

18 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

19 chronic   

adj.(疾病)长期未愈的，慢性的；极坏的

参考例句：

• Famine differs from chronic malnutrition.饥荒不同于慢性营养不良。
• Chronic poisoning may lead to death from inanition.慢性中毒也可能由虚弱导致死亡。

20 detention   

n.滞留，停留；拘留，扣留；(教育)留下

参考例句：

• He was kept in detention by the police.他被警察扣留了。
• He was in detention in connection with the bribery affair.他因与贿赂事件有牵连而被拘留了。

21 rattled   

慌乱的，恼火的

参考例句：

• The truck jolted and rattled over the rough ground. 卡车嘎吱嘎吱地在凹凸不平的地面上颠簸而行。
• Every time a bus went past, the windows rattled. 每逢公共汽车经过这里，窗户都格格作响。

22 grievances   

n.委屈( grievance的名词复数 )；苦衷；不满；牢骚

参考例句：

• The trade union leader spoke about the grievances of the workers. 工会领袖述说工人们的苦情。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• He gave air to his grievances. 他申诉了他的冤情。 来自《简明英汉词典》

23 overthrowing   

v.打倒，推翻( overthrow的现在分词 )；使终止

参考例句：

• They succeeded in overthrowing the fascist dictatorship. 他们成功推翻了法西斯独裁统治。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I always delight in overthrowing those kinds of schemes. 我一向喜欢戳穿人家的诡计。 来自辞典例句

24 ousting   

驱逐( oust的现在分词 )； 革职； 罢黜； 剥夺

参考例句：

• The resulting financial chaos led to the ousting of Bristol-Myers' s boss. 随后引发的财政混乱导致了百时美施贵宝的总裁下台。
• The ousting of the president has drawn widespread criticism across Latin America and the wider world. 洪都拉斯总统被驱逐时间引起拉丁美洲甚至全世界的广泛批评。

25 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

26 weird   

adj.古怪的，离奇的；怪诞的，神秘而可怕的

参考例句：

• From his weird behaviour,he seems a bit of an oddity.从他不寻常的行为看来，他好像有点怪。
• His weird clothes really gas me.他的怪衣裳简直笑死人。

27 coups   

n.意外而成功的行动( coup的名词复数 )；政变；努力办到难办的事

参考例句：

• China has seen many political coups within the ruling class. 中国统治阶级内部发生过很多政变。 来自互联网
• Thailand has had eighteen coups or coup attendance since nineteen thirty-two. 泰国1932年以来有18次政变或参加政变。 来自互联网

28 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

29 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

30 provincial   

adj.省的，地方的；n．外省人，乡下人

参考例句：

• City dwellers think country folk have provincial attitudes.城里人以为乡下人思想迂腐。
• Two leading cadres came down from the provincial capital yesterday.昨天从省里下来了两位领导干部。

31 elite   

n.精英阶层；实力集团；adj.杰出的，卓越的

参考例句：

• The power elite inside the government is controlling foreign policy.政府内部的一群握有实权的精英控制着对外政策。
• We have a political elite in this country.我们国家有一群政治精英。

32 doling   

救济物( dole的现在分词 )； 失业救济金

参考例句：

• "What are you doling?'she once demanded over the intercom. 有一次他母亲通过对讲机问他：“你在干什么？ 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• Many scrollbars are quite parsimonious in doling out information to users. 很多滚动条都很吝啬，给用户传递的信息太少。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

33 enacting   

制定（法律），通过（法案）( enact的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Generally these statutes apply only to wastes from reactors outside the enacting state. 总之，这些法令只适宜用在对付那些来自外州的核废料。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• In addition, the complexion of enacting standards for live working is described. 另外，介绍了带电作业标准的制订情况。