2006年VOA标准英语-IMF: Bird Flu Pandemic Could Temporarily H

By David McAlary
Washington
13 March 2006
 
The International Monetary¹ Fund says a global bird flu pandemic is likely to hurt the world's economy significantly if it is severe. But it predicts that the consequences would be temporary. The global financial agency is encouraging businesses to develop emergency plans to deal with a pandemic.

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Chickens in their enclosure in Frankfurt, Germany  
  

In a new report, the International Monetary Fund says the global economic impact of a bird flu pandemic would vary depending on its severity. IMF financial systems expert David Hoelscher says there is no way to forecast this.

"There is a great deal of uncertainty² about the virus," he said. "We don't know if it will mutate to a form that can be transmitted human to human, and we don't know how deadly this virus might be if it were to mutate, and we really can't specify³ with any certainty what the economic and financial impact might be."

The International Monetary Fund does say that if a flu pandemic were severe, the biggest impact would be due to absenteeism from the workplace. This would disrupt trade, transportation, utilities, and the banking⁴ and health systems. Absenteeism would also cause consumer demand to plummet⁵, reducing business investment and cash flows between countries. In addition, to control the virus, countries might impose restrictions⁶ on exports.

This would cause a drop in commodity prices, although this might be offset⁷ by potential supply disruptions of key commodities like oil.

The IMF links the amount of economic dislocation to the severity of a flu pandemic. It says rapid global transportation and mass communication might increase some risks, while better public health systems and drugs might act in the other direction.

But whatever the level of economic disruption, the agency says the impact would be temporary. IMF researcher Sandy Mackenzie suggests that in an economically stable country, output might decline for only one quarter of the year, with activity resuming quickly the next.

"Because the vast majority of the people recover, people would be back on the job soon and supply would rebound⁸," she said. "Similarly, consumer demand would rebound as people purchase things that they had postponed⁹, like consumer durables¹⁰."

 
Students wear masks during SARS outbreak (2003 file photo)
  
International Monetary Fund experts say the best business and financial institution contingency¹¹ planning has occurred in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Canada - places hit hard by sharp tourism drops in 2003 because of the outbreak of SARS, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome¹². It notes that financial institutions, central banks, and regulators have stepped up their risk planning in recent years in many advanced economies with activities such as identifying back-up teams at alternate sites.

But the IMF says business planning for a bird flu pandemic varies greatly around the world, and cross-border cooperation is at an early stage.

The IMF's Sandy Mackenzie says the fund staff is collecting and spreading information about the elements of good business planning among its member countries.

"We view the Fund's program, really, as a kind of insurance," she said. "We see this business continuity planning as a form of comparatively cheap insurance."

1 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

2 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

3 specify   

vt.指定，详细说明

参考例句：

• We should specify a time and a place for the meeting.我们应指定会议的时间和地点。
• Please specify what you will do.请你详述一下你将做什么。

4 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

5 plummet   

vi.(价格、水平等)骤然下跌；n.铅坠；重压物

参考例句：

• Mengniu and Yili have seen their shares plummet since the incident broke.自事件发生以来，蒙牛和伊利的股票大幅下跌。
• Even if rice prices were to plummet,other brakes on poverty alleviation remain.就算大米价格下跌，其它阻止导致贫困的因素仍然存在。

6 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

7 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

8 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

9 postponed   

vt.& vi.延期，缓办，（使）延迟vt.把…放在次要地位；[语]把…放在后面（或句尾）vi.（疟疾等）延缓发作（或复发）

参考例句：

• The trial was postponed indefinitely. 审讯无限期延迟。
• The game has already been postponed three times. 这场比赛已经三度延期了。

10 durables   

n.持久的，耐用的( durable的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Running at 50-year lows below trend. Move from durables to services consumption could be big. 在低于趋势线的50年最低水平下，从耐用品消费到服务消费的转变可能很大。 来自互联网
• The table below shows the consumer durables owned in Britain from 1972 to 1983. 该图表展现的是1972-1983十一年间英国耐久消费品的拥有量。 来自互联网

11 contingency   

n.意外事件，可能性

参考例句：

• We should be prepared for any contingency.我们应该对任何应急情况有所准备。
• A fire in our warehouse was a contingency that we had not expected.库房的一场大火是我们始料未及的。

12 syndrome   

n.综合病症；并存特性

参考例句：

• The Institute says that an unidentified virus is to blame for the syndrome. 该研究所表示,引起这种综合症的是一种尚未确认的病毒。
• Results indicated that 11 fetuses had Down syndrome. 结果表明有11个胎儿患有唐氏综合征。