2006年VOA标准英语-Economists Warn Growing Trade Imbalances Increa

By Daniel Schearf
Beijing
13 September 2006

Economists¹ have warned that growing trade imbalances between high-income countries such as the United States and export-driven economies such as China could lead to a global recession. The International Monetary² Fund this month echoed those concerns. The issue is expected to be high on the agenda of the annual meeting of the World Bank and the IMF, which begins September 19 in Singapore. 

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venue3 of IMF- World Bank meetings in Singapore" src="/upimg/allimg/070419/0840440.jpg" width="210" border="0" /> Gurkha soldier stands guard outside venue of IMF- World Bank meetings in Singapore

The global economy is set to grow by around five percent this year, but global trade and fiscal⁴ imbalances are also on the rise. Many economists say if they do not start soon to gradually shrink, economic growth across the world could fall abruptly⁵.

The U.S. trade deficit⁶, the highest in the world, is growing at $100 billion a year and looks to set surpass $800 billion this year.

"The flip⁷ side of that is big surpluses around the world. China is now running the world's largest trade surplus, this year probably coming in about $250 billion," said Fred Bergsten, director of the International Institute for Economics in Washington, D.C.  "Japan is second, Europe, the NAFTA countries are running small trade surpluses as well. And the other big trade surplus is now in the oil exporting countries because of high energy prices, Saudi Arabia, Russia, other major oil exporters also running surpluses."

Bergsten says this imbalance cannot last forever.

"The correction of these imbalances, which history would suggest is inevitable⁸ and can come in a very disruptive way, could push the world economy as a whole sharply downward, possibly into a global recession," he said.

Bergsten and many Western economists say the U.S. dollar is overvalued while Asian currencies such as the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen⁹ are undervalued. He says this misalignment will have to be corrected one day, and if the correction is too sharp it could make imports into the U.S. far more expensive, push up interest rates and weaken economies across the globe.

The largest trade imbalance, between the United States and China, is of particular concern as the two economies, one the largest and the other the fastest growing in the world, have become more interdependent.

The U.S. government says trade between the two countries topped $285 billion last year - and that the trade deficit with China was $202 billion.

Jeffery Frankel is an economics professor at Harvard University. He says the imbalance is encouraging protectionism among U.S. politicians, business owners and workers, which could further upset healthy trade.

"People in Congress, rightly or wrongly, are very upset about this, and China has become sort of what we call a scapegoat," he said. "A lot of people are sort of blaming China in the way that we used to blame Japan 10 or 20 years ago. And there is a potential for damaging legislation to pass, it would be damaging to us and to our trade partners as well."

Many trade experts warn that restrictive tariffs¹⁰ or quotas¹¹ on Chinese goods would hurt U.S. consumers, who would have to pay higher prices, and could encourage China to respond with trade barriers of its own.

Beijing argues its cheap exports benefit American consumers and that many of the companies exporting from China are foreign enterprises.

Many experts - in China and outside - say the yuan needs to be revalued gradually to avoid triggering inflation and causing a severe drop in exports, which could lead to higher unemployment and social unrest.

The trade imbalances contribute to another imbalance - many exporting countries essentially¹² are hoarding¹³ foreign exchange reserves - most of it in dollars. Essentially, they are saving the money made from trade, instead of spending it to improve public services and infrastructure¹⁴, or to import goods.

But if the U.S. dollar weakens suddenly, or U.S. investments become unpopular, those foreign reserves will lose value. And the United States, which has financed its trade deficit by borrowing, could find it no longer can borrow overseas.

Many economists say the United States needs to reduce its spending and increase interest rates to encourage citizens to save more money and make the country less reliant on foreign capital flows. At the same time, surplus countries such as China need to rely less on exports and encourage domestic spending to reduce imbalanced trade.

At the annual World Bank and International Monetary Fund meeting in Singapore this month, trade and fiscal imbalances are expected to be high on the agenda.

China has the world's largest foreign exchange reserves at over $875 billion.

Already, IMF officials have said China should allow the yuan to fluctuate more in value, while the World Bank wants Beijing to spend more on health, education, and other social infrastructure so Chinese consumers will be comfortable spending their money.

Economists say a coordinated¹⁶ approach is needed to ensure a smooth unwinding of trade imbalances.

Earlier this year, the IMF created a multilateral consulting mechanism¹⁷ to try to narrow imbalances by encouraging trading partners to coordinate¹⁵ economic policies.

So far, the consultations¹⁸ have been limited to bilateral¹⁹ discussions between the Fund and individual governments - China, the European Union, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. However, the Fund's chief Rodrigo Rato says they plan to hold roundtables with representatives from all these countries in the coming months.

1 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

3 venue   

n.犯罪地点，审判地，管辖地，发生地点，集合地点

参考例句：

• The hall provided a venue for weddings and other functions.大厅给婚礼和其他社会活动提供了场所。
• The chosen venue caused great controversy among the people.人们就审判地点的问题产生了极大的争议。

4 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

5 abruptly   

adv.突然地，出其不意地

参考例句：

• He gestured abruptly for Virginia to get in the car.他粗鲁地示意弗吉尼亚上车。
• I was abruptly notified that a half-hour speech was expected of me.我突然被通知要讲半个小时的话。

6 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

7 flip   

vt.快速翻动；轻抛；轻拍；n.轻抛；adj.轻浮的

参考例句：

• I had a quick flip through the book and it looked very interesting.我很快翻阅了一下那本书，看来似乎很有趣。
• Let's flip a coin to see who pays the bill.咱们来抛硬币决定谁付钱。

8 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

9 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

10 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

11 quotas   

（正式限定的）定量( quota的名词复数 )； 定额； 指标； 摊派

参考例句：

• In fulfilling the production quotas, John made rings round all his fellow workers. 约翰完成生产定额大大超过他的同事们。
• Quotas of the means of production are allocated by the higher administrative bodies to the lower ones. 物资指标按隶属关系分配。

12 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

13 hoarding   

n.贮藏；积蓄；临时围墙；囤积v.积蓄并储藏（某物）( hoard的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• After the war, they were shot for hoarding. 战后他们因囤积而被枪决。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Actually he had two unused ones which he was hoarding up. 其实他还藏了两片没有用呢。 来自英汉文学

14 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

15 coordinate   

adj.同等的，协调的；n.同等者；vt.协作，协调

参考例句：

• You must coordinate what you said with what you did.你必须使你的言行一致。
• Maybe we can coordinate the relation of them.或许我们可以调和他们之间的关系。

16 coordinated   

adj.协调的

参考例句：

• The sound has to be coordinated with the picture. 声音必须和画面协调一致。
• The numerous existing statutes are complicated and poorly coordinated. 目前繁多的法令既十分复杂又缺乏快调。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

17 mechanism   

n.机械装置；机构，结构

参考例句：

• The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
• The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。

18 consultations   

n.磋商（会议）( consultation的名词复数 )；商讨会；协商会；查找

参考例句：

• Consultations can be arranged at other times by appointment. 磋商可以通过预约安排在其他时间。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Consultations are under way. 正在进行磋商。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

19 bilateral   

adj.双方的，两边的，两侧的

参考例句：

• They have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal.他们一直在商谈一项双边贸易协定。
• There was a wide gap between the views of the two statesmen on the bilateral cooperation.对双方合作的问题，两位政治家各自所持的看法差距甚大。