2007年VOA标准英语-Debate on Consequences of US 'Failure' in Iraq

By Al Pessin
Pentagon
18 January 2007

One issue at the heart of the debate over President Bush's new Iraq strategy is whether it would be, as the president says, disastrous¹ to remove U.S. troops before the new government is firmly established and the new security forces can maintain stability. Some experts say the United States cannot influence the long-term situation in Iraq no matter how long the troops stay, and that the consequences of a quick withdrawal² are much less severe than the administration claims. VOA Pentagon Correspondent Al Pessin has been looking into the issue.

 
President Bush
When he announced his plan last week, President Bush acknowledged that establishing security and stability in Iraq has been more difficult than he had expected, and that even with 21,000 more U.S. troops it will take at least several more months. But he said this is something the United States must do, and that a premature³ withdrawal from Iraq would be a disaster.

"The consequences of failure are clear," said President Bush. "Radical⁴ Islamic extremists would grow in strength and gain new recruits. They would be in a better position to topple moderate governments, create chaos⁵ in the region and use oil revenues to fund their ambitions."

The president said failure in Iraq would also create a safe haven⁶ for terrorists, and would embolden⁷ Iran in its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

 
Defense⁸ Secretary Robert Gates testifies before the House Armed Services Committee on Capitol Hill, 11 Jan 2007
The next day, his new defense secretary, Robert Gates, made more dire⁹ predictions when he spoke¹⁰ to a congressional committee.

"Whatever one's views of how we got to this point in Iraq, there is widespread agreement that failure there would be a calamity¹¹ that would haunt our nation in the future and in the region," said Robert Gates.

Secretary Gates said a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq before the government is stable could result in what he called "a regional conflagration," and would be a "humiliating defeat" for the United States that would undermine its credibility worldwide.

Many experts agree with the administration's predictions about the fallout from a U.S. defeat in Iraq, including some who did not support the invasion back in 2003 but now believe Iraq is the central front in the war on terrorism. But others argue that the predictions are exaggerated.

"I don't think the consequences will be as dire for the United States as they're portrayed¹² by some folks," said David Tretler.

David Tretler is a retired¹³ U.S. Army lieutenant¹⁴ colonel who teaches strategy at the government's National Defense University. He says the United States should withdraw its troops from Iraq as quickly as possible, and can do so without serious consequences for U.S. national security. He says even if U.S. troops stay in Iraq and establish what seems to be stability, it probably won't last very long after the troops leave.

"The factions¹⁵ and the conflicts that exist within Iraqi society are so deep, so unresolvable, that they don't have the capacity to create an effective, reasonably representative government that will serve the needs of the majority of the people," he said. "Are you willing to continue to pour money and lives and effort into trying to create something in Iraq which just may be impossible to create?"

Another skeptic¹⁶ of the dire predictions is Richard Clarke, who was President Clinton's chief counterterrorism adviser¹⁷ and also worked for President Bush until 2003. Since then, he has been a sharp critic of the administration's approach to fighting terrorism.

"I believe that in either case, whether the last U.S. combat force unit leaves 12 months from now or seven years from now, the result will be largely the same," said Richard Clarke. "In post-U.S.-combat-troop Iraq there is likely to be chaos."

Clarke says whatever Iraqi government emerges from that chaos is not likely to support terrorism, and if it does the United States can use a variety of diplomatic, intelligence and, if necessary, limited military means to address the problem. He says the Untied¹⁸ States can ensure that Iraq does not become a terrorist sanctuary¹⁹ without keeping troops there for an extended period.

"We can achieve our major national security goal vis a vis Iraq without being there," he said. "In fact, being there makes it more difficult to achieve that goal."

Clarke also dismisses talk of a regional war, saying it would not be in the interest of any of Iraq's neighbors. He says the only difference in the outcome of the Iraq conflict if the United States removes its combat troops sooner rather than later would be fewer U.S. casualties and less U.S. money spent.

But other experts support the Bush administration's view that the United States can and must prevent chaos in Iraq. Among them is Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute.

"If we allow Iraq to descend²⁰ into chaos, it will become a weak state that will be a potential operational center for al-Qaida, a potential operational center for Iranian terrorist proxies," said Danielle Pletka. "It will become a nightmare."

Pletka says the key to avoiding that will be for the additional U.S. troops to help impose security in Baghdad and reduce the power of the militias²¹.

"That is the moment when the groups that are now unwilling²² to reconcile politically will come to the table," she said.

She says that will establish the basis for long-term stability, avoiding the chaos the other analysts²³ believe is unavoidable.

Based on public opinion polls, that view appears to be convincing fewer and fewer Americans. And at the same time more and more members of Congress are also indicating they do not believe it, including many from President Bush's own Republican Party.

Experts say the concerns about short term casualties and the long term prospects²⁴ are combining to give the president and his new plan only a short time to show some success before public and congressional support erodes²⁵ even further.

1 disastrous   

adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的

参考例句：

• The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
• Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨，血本无归。

2 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

3 premature   

adj.比预期时间早的；不成熟的，仓促的

参考例句：

• It is yet premature to predict the possible outcome of the dialogue.预言这次对话可能有什么结果为时尚早。
• The premature baby is doing well.那个早产的婴儿很健康。

4 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

5 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

6 haven   

n.安全的地方，避难所，庇护所

参考例句：

• It's a real haven at the end of a busy working day.忙碌了一整天后，这真是一个安乐窝。
• The school library is a little haven of peace and quiet.学校的图书馆是一个和平且安静的小避风港。

7 embolden   

v.给…壮胆，鼓励

参考例句：

• Emboldened by the wine,he went over to introduce himself to her.他借酒壮胆，走上前去向她作自我介绍。
• The Prime Minister was steadily emboldened by the discovery that he faced no opposition.发现自己并未遭到反对，首相渐渐有了信心。

8 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

9 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

10 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

11 calamity   

n.灾害，祸患，不幸事件

参考例句：

• Even a greater natural calamity cannot daunt us. 再大的自然灾害也压不垮我们。
• The attack on Pearl Harbor was a crushing calamity.偷袭珍珠港(对美军来说)是一场毁灭性的灾难。

12 portrayed   

v.画像( portray的过去式和过去分词 )；描述；描绘；描画

参考例句：

• Throughout the trial, he portrayed himself as the victim. 在审讯过程中，他始终把自己说成是受害者。
• The author portrayed his father as a vicious drunkard. 作者把他父亲描绘成一个可恶的酒鬼。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

13 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

14 lieutenant   

n.陆军中尉，海军上尉；代理官员，副职官员

参考例句：

• He was promoted to be a lieutenant in the army.他被提升为陆军中尉。
• He prevailed on the lieutenant to send in a short note.他说动那个副官，递上了一张简短的便条进去。

15 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

16 skeptic   

n.怀疑者，怀疑论者，无神论者

参考例句：

• She is a skeptic about the dangers of global warming.她是全球变暖危险的怀疑论者。
• How am I going to convince this skeptic that she should attention to my research?我将如何使怀疑论者确信她应该关注我的研究呢？

17 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

18 untied   

松开，解开( untie的过去式和过去分词 )； 解除，使自由； 解决

参考例句：

• Once untied, we common people are able to conquer nature, too. 只要团结起来，我们老百姓也能移山倒海。
• He untied the ropes. 他解开了绳子。

19 sanctuary   

n.圣所，圣堂，寺庙；禁猎区，保护区

参考例句：

• There was a sanctuary of political refugees behind the hospital.医院后面有一个政治难民的避难所。
• Most countries refuse to give sanctuary to people who hijack aeroplanes.大多数国家拒绝对劫机者提供庇护。

20 descend   

vt./vi.传下来，下来，下降

参考例句：

• I hope the grace of God would descend on me.我期望上帝的恩惠。
• We're not going to descend to such methods.我们不会沦落到使用这种手段。

21 militias   

n.民兵组织，民兵( militia的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The troops will not attempt to disarm the warring militias. 部队并不打算解除战斗中的民兵武装。 来自辞典例句
• The neighborhood was a battleground for Shiite and Sunni militias. 那里曾是什叶派和逊尼派武装分子的战场。 来自互联网

22 unwilling   

adj.不情愿的

参考例句：

• The natives were unwilling to be bent by colonial power.土著居民不愿受殖民势力的摆布。
• His tightfisted employer was unwilling to give him a raise.他那吝啬的雇主不肯给他加薪。

23 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

24 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

25 erodes   

侵蚀，腐蚀( erode的第三人称单数 )； 逐渐毁坏，削弱，损害

参考例句：

• The sea erodes the rock. 海水侵蚀岩石。
• The sea erodes the land. 海洋侵蚀陆地。