VOA常速英语2007-Experts Worry That World Oil Production May Soon

By Greg Flakus
Houston
17 October 2007

Energy experts from around the world have gathered in Houston for a three-day conference on the issue of peak oil, which involves predictions that world oil production will soon reach its peak and then go into decline. This could cause a global economic crisis since demand for energy is not expected to slow, but, in fact, is expanding rapidly. VOA's Greg Flakus has more from Houston.

The proponents¹ of the peak oil theory rely on data from existing oil fields around the world that show weakening production in many of the richest fields and increasing difficulty in extracting oil from newer fields. Oil companies, both national and private, tend to dismiss such concerns by citing the size of their reserves and the new technology that allows them to produce oil from areas that would have been bypassed a few decades ago.

But the peak oil theory believers include some of the world's most respected engineers and economists², many of whom have years of experience working in the oil and gas industry. Some of them go so far as to say the world may have already peaked in its oil production and that production will soon go into a steep decline.

What makes this especially worrisome is that demand is going in the other direction. Matt Simmons, an oil industry analyst³ based here in Houston, is one of the best known advocates of the peak oil idea. He notes that demand for oil on a worldwide basis has grown from ten million barrels a day in 1950 to an estimated 88 million barrels a day projected for next year. He says demand will grow even more in the decades ahead.

"Almost all the long-term forecasts look out to 2020 and then 2030 and see a world that is going to need 115 to 120 million barrels a day of oil by 2020 and 120 to 130 by 2030," said Matt Simmons.

But Simmons says even those predictions may not fully⁴ capture the danger ahead. He notes that the fast-growing economies of India and China have reached only one third of Mexico's per-capita consumption of oil. If they were to reach Mexico's level of use, the world would require an additional 45 million barrels a day in output.

"I happen to think that this issue will soon overwhelm global warming as the single biggest threat to sustaining the 21st century," he said. "But I am amazed that it still lurks⁵ in the shadows and amazed at the debate as to whether it is even a real issue."

Simmons says steps should be taken now to reduce demand and to develop alternative fuels.

Among other participants in this week's conference here in Houston are famed Texas oil man T. Boone Pickens, Chris Skrebowski of the Energy Institute in London, David Hughes of the Geological Survey of Canada and a number of academics and independent energy analysts⁶. The conference will conclude with panel discussions on Saturday.

1 proponents   

n.（某事业、理论等的）支持者，拥护者( proponent的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Reviewing courts were among the most active proponents of hybrid rulemaking procedures. 复审法院是最积极的混合型规则制定程序的建议者。 来自英汉非文学 - 行政法
• Proponents of such opinions were arrested as 'traitors. ' 提倡这种主张的人马上作为“卖国贼”逮捕起来。 来自辞典例句

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

4 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

5 lurks   

n.潜在，潜伏；（lurk的复数形式）vi.潜伏，埋伏（lurk的第三人称单数形式）

参考例句：

• Behind his cool exterior lurks a reckless and frustrated person. 在冷酷的外表背后，他是一个鲁莽又不得志的人。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Good fortune lies within Bad, Bad fortune lurks within good. 福兮祸所倚，祸兮福所伏。 来自互联网

6 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。