VOA常速英语2007年-Uncertainty Prevails Over Lebanese Political Cr

By Margaret Besheer
Washington
21 November 2007

The political crisis in Lebanon between pro- and anti-Syrian factions¹ is about to come to a climax², with fears the outcome could split the country into two competing governments if a compromise cannot be reached by Friday to replace the outgoing president.  From Washington, VOA's Margaret Besheer has more on the situation.

A yearlong power struggle between the Hezbollah-led opposition³ and the anti-Syrian majority bloc⁴ in parliament comes to a head Friday at midnight. That's when pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud's term expires.

A vote to elect his successor was slated⁵ for September, but has been postponed⁶ four times, most recently on Wednesday. It is now set for Friday afternoon. The postponements have been called because the two main political blocs⁷ cannot agree on the choice of a presidential candidate.

If the rival blocs fail to reach a deal on a consensus⁸ candidate, analysts⁹ say three possible scenarios¹¹ could emerge.

The first possibility is outgoing-President Lahoud could hand power to a caretaker government that would include the military, while negotiations¹² on a presidential candidate continue.

In the second scenario¹⁰, anti-Syrian Prime Minister Fuad Siniora would stay on in a caretaker capacity, with limited duties.

Third, and most controversial, would be for the majority bloc in parliament to elect a presidential candidate with a simple majority vote. The Hezbollah-led opposition would certainly oppose this and it could lead to their establishing their own rival government.

Karim Makdisi, professor of political studies at the American University of Beirut, says any of these scenarios could play out.

"These kinds of decisions are being prepared and everyone is waiting to see who is going to blink, and if we get to Friday night and nothing has happened then we see what happens the following day. But any of these possibilities are perfectly¹³ likely," he said.

Lebanon was locked in a civil war from 1975 until 1990, and some fear the establishment of two rival governments could lead to a repeat of that violence. Hanna Anbar, Editor of the Lebanese newspaper the Daily Star disagrees.

"Nobody has an interest in civil strife," he said.  "Nobody. And anybody who talks about it is [talking] politics now trying to put pressure on the other side."

A flurry of international diplomacy¹⁴ has surrounded the current crisis. The Europeans and Arabs are working hard to make sure the election happens Friday and a consensus candidate is elected.  French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has been in Beirut all week and is being joined by his Spanish and Italian counterparts as well as Arab League chief Amr Moussa.

Lebanon's sectarian power-sharing arrangement requires that the president be a Maronite Christian¹⁵. Several figures have been discussed as possibilities. The current leading candidate is former minister Michel Eddé who is in his eighties. Professor Makdisi says Eddé has good relations with both factions.

"He is an intellectual. He is someone who is held in good regard. He is someone people respect in general. He is fairly close to the [Maronite] patriarch, and so does not step on anybody's toes particularly," he explained.

But the Daily Star's Anbar says Eddé's candidacy is not certain, and anything could still happen.

"I could go on until the morning about all kinds of rumors¹⁶ and formulas that are circulating. It all boils down to one word: nothing has been decided¹⁷ and nothing has been agreed upon as of now," he explained.

But even if the rival factions hammer out their differences and elect a compromise candidate Friday, the political crisis in Lebanon will not be over, it will simply enter a new phase. The new president will have to appoint a new prime minister and cabinet, and that government will have to agree on a statement of its policy, including its position on U.N. resolutions on disarming¹⁸ Hezbollah and establishing an international tribunal to try the assassins of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Subjects that are certain to give the parties plenty to argue over.

1 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

2 climax   

n.顶点；高潮；v.(使)达到顶点

参考例句：

• The fifth scene was the climax of the play.第五场是全剧的高潮。
• His quarrel with his father brought matters to a climax.他与他父亲的争吵使得事态发展到了顶点。

3 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

4 bloc   

n.集团；联盟

参考例句：

• A solid bloc of union members support the decision.工会会员团结起来支持该决定。
• There have been growing tensions within the trading bloc.贸易同盟国的关系越来越紧张。

5 slated   

用石板瓦盖( slate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Yuki is working up an in-home phonics program slated for Thursdays, and I'm drilling her on English conversation at dinnertime. Yuki每周四还有一次家庭语音课。我在晚餐时训练她的英语口语。
• Bromfield was slated to become U.S. Secretary of Agriculture. 布罗姆菲尔德被提名为美国农业部长。

6 postponed   

vt.& vi.延期，缓办，（使）延迟vt.把…放在次要地位；[语]把…放在后面（或句尾）vi.（疟疾等）延缓发作（或复发）

参考例句：

• The trial was postponed indefinitely. 审讯无限期延迟。
• The game has already been postponed three times. 这场比赛已经三度延期了。

7 blocs   

n.集团，联盟( bloc的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The division of Europe into warring blocs produces ever-increasing centrifugal stress. 把欧洲分为作战集团产生了越来越大的离心效果。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The policy of the two blocs was played out. 把世界分为两个集团的政策已经过时了。 来自辞典例句

8 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

9 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

10 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

11 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

12 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

13 perfectly   

adv.完美地，无可非议地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The witnesses were each perfectly certain of what they said.证人们个个对自己所说的话十分肯定。
• Everything that we're doing is all perfectly above board.我们做的每件事情都是光明正大的。

14 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

15 Christian   

adj.基督教徒的；n.基督教徒

参考例句：

• They always addressed each other by their Christian name.他们总是以教名互相称呼。
• His mother is a sincere Christian.他母亲是个虔诚的基督教徒。

16 rumors   

n.传闻( rumor的名词复数 )；[古]名誉；咕哝；[古]喧嚷v.传闻( rumor的第三人称单数 )；[古]名誉；咕哝；[古]喧嚷

参考例句：

• Rumors have it that the school was burned down. 有谣言说学校给烧掉了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Rumors of a revolt were afloat. 叛变的谣言四起。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

18 disarming   

adj.消除敌意的，使人消气的v.裁军( disarm的现在分词 )；使息怒

参考例句：

• He flashed her a disarming smile. 他朝她笑了一下，让她消消气。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• We will agree to disarming troops and leaving their weapons at military positions. 我们将同意解除军队的武装并把武器留在军事阵地。 来自辞典例句