2007年VOA标准英语-Analysts: US May Not Be Primary Target of Irani

By Gary Thomas
Washington
12 February 2007

U.S. military officials in Baghdad are accusing the Iranian government of providing sophisticated explosives to Shiite militias¹ in Iran. Iran has denied the charge. But, as VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports, even if the accusation² is true, the arms may not necessarily be destined³ for attacks on U.S. forces.

The allegation that Iran is providing arms to Iraqi insurgents⁴ is not new.

George W. Bush

In his address on Iraq last month, President Bush bluntly blamed Iran for arming insurgents to attack American troops.

"Iran is providing material support for attacks on American troops," he said. "We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We' will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq."

But Ken⁵ Katzman, a Middle East analyst⁶ at the non-partisan Congressional Research Service, believes U.S. troops are not the primary target of the smuggled⁷ munitions⁹. He says the Iranians are arming Shiite militias. Yet, he points out, most of the attacks on U.S. forces come from Sunni insurgents.

He said, "Most of the I.E.D.s [improvised explosive devices], most of the roadside bombs, that are having the most effect on American troops are from Sunni insurgents."

"And I have not seen any evidence presented from the military or elsewhere that these Iranian arms are going to Sunni insurgents, which leads me to question what really is the significance," he continued.

Wayne White, former deputy director of Near East affairs for State Department intelligence, disagrees. He notes that some of the arms displayed by officials in Baghdad are armor-piercing rockets - and only the U.S. and Britain have armored vehicles in Iraq.

"Why would anybody be arming anybody there with this kind of munition⁸? Only to get somebody who has got the kind of vehicle that this munition is needed to open up like a can opener. And we are the only ones who have it. This is an anti-American weapon in Iraq," he said.

The U.S. officials contend that the approval to arm the militias comes from what they call the highest levels of the Iranian government, which would mean President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme¹⁰ Leader Ali Khamenei.

Ken Katzman says Iran is arming its co-religionist Shiite militias, Katzman believes, in anticipation¹¹ of an all-out Sunni-Shia civil war.

He said, "My working assumption is that it is broadly approved at the highest levels, which would mean Ahmadinejad, obviously, but also [former president] Rafsanjani and Khamenei, because my analysis is that these weapons are primarily to position Shiite militias for a coming all-out civil war with Sunnis."

"That would be something that all the factions¹² would agree. All the factions in Iranian government want the Shiites to win any possible civil war in Iraq," he added.

The U.S. presentation made to reporters in Iraq marks the first time officials have produced what they say is clear evidence of direct Iranian involvement in the violence in Iraq.

Paul Pillar, a former senior Middle East analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency, says it shows the United States is ratcheting up its anti-Iran rhetoric¹³.

He said, "It is a rhetorical escalation¹⁴. Clearly there have been other elements and other bits of rhetoric that would support that thesis as well. I think the bigger question then is, escalation for what purpose? Is it just trying to scare the Iranians into, one hopes, making greater concessions¹⁵ on the nuclear issue or something else? Is it more of a reminder¹⁶ to be more careful or constrained¹⁷ on what they do in Iraq? I do not know. It could be elements of those. But some people have speculated it is paving the way for perhaps a more forceful policy against Iran."

Ken Katzman, as well as other analysts¹⁸, say the Sunni groups get their arms from private sources in the region, as well as from stockpiles from Saddam Hussein's army.

1 militias   

n.民兵组织，民兵( militia的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The troops will not attempt to disarm the warring militias. 部队并不打算解除战斗中的民兵武装。 来自辞典例句
• The neighborhood was a battleground for Shiite and Sunni militias. 那里曾是什叶派和逊尼派武装分子的战场。 来自互联网

2 accusation   

n.控告，指责，谴责

参考例句：

• I was furious at his making such an accusation.我对他的这种责备非常气愤。
• She knew that no one would believe her accusation.她知道没人会相信她的指控。

3 destined   

adj.命中注定的；(for)以…为目的地的

参考例句：

• It was destined that they would marry.他们结婚是缘分。
• The shipment is destined for America.这批货物将运往美国。

4 insurgents   

n.起义，暴动，造反( insurgent的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The regular troops of Baden joined the insurgents. 巴登的正规军参加到起义军方面来了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Against the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, these problems are manageable. 要对付塔利班与伊拉克叛乱分子，这些问题还是可以把握住的。 来自互联网

5 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

6 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

7 smuggled   

水货

参考例句：

• The customs officer confiscated the smuggled goods. 海关官员没收了走私品。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Those smuggled goods have been detained by the port office. 那些走私货物被港务局扣押了。 来自互联网

8 munition   

n.军火；军需品；v.给某部门提供军火

参考例句：

• The rebels bombed the munition factory.叛军轰炸了兵工厂。
• The soldiers had plenty of arms and munition!士兵们有充足的武器和弹药！

9 munitions   

n.军火，弹药；v.供应…军需品

参考例句：

• The army used precision-guided munitions to blow up enemy targets.军队用精确瞄准的枪炮炸掉敌方目标。
• He rose [made a career for himself] by dealing in munitions.他是靠贩卖军火发迹的。

10 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

11 anticipation   

n.预期，预料，期望

参考例句：

• We waited at the station in anticipation of her arrival.我们在车站等着，期待她的到来。
• The animals grew restless as if in anticipation of an earthquake.各种动物都变得焦躁不安，像是感到了地震即将发生。

12 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

13 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

14 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

15 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

16 reminder   

n.提醒物，纪念品；暗示，提示

参考例句：

• I have had another reminder from the library.我又收到图书馆的催还单。
• It always took a final reminder to get her to pay her share of the rent.总是得发给她一份最后催缴通知，她才付应该交的房租。

17 constrained   

adj.束缚的,节制的

参考例句：

• The evidence was so compelling that he felt constrained to accept it. 证据是那样的令人折服，他觉得不得不接受。
• I feel constrained to write and ask for your forgiveness. 我不得不写信请你原谅。

18 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。