2007年VOA标准英语-Baghdad Conference Not Expected to Produce Dram

By Gary Thomas
Washington
08 March 2007

Representatives of Iraq's neighboring countries, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, and Arab and Muslim nations are all scheduled to meet in Baghdad this Saturday, March 10 to seek some kind of regional consensus² that will end the violence in Iraq. But, as VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports, analysts⁴ see the conference as a first step and do not expect any major breakthroughs.

 
Smoke billows from the site of a car bomb attack engulfing⁵ Bab al-Moazam Mosque⁶ in Baghdad, 5 Mar¹ 2007
Although the talks are about Iraq, the spotlight⁷ of the multilateral conference will be on the interaction between the representatives of the United States and Iran.

U.S.-Iranian relations have been non-existent since 1979, although both countries did cooperate in the 2001 Bonn Conference on Afghanistan. The mutual⁸ hostility⁹ between Tehran and Washington has gotten even more heated as of late, as the Bush administration accuses Iran of arming insurgents¹⁰ in Iraq, and Iran continues to defy international demands to halt uranium enrichment.

 
George Bush, 2 Mar 2007
Yet, in what most analysts label a policy change, President Bush now says the U.S. will sit down at the same table with Iran, as well as Syria, to discuss Iraq.

"They [the talks] will be a test of whether Iran and Syria are truly interested in being constructive¹¹ forces in Iraq," he said. "It will be a test for the international community to express its support for this young democracy, to support a nation that will be at peace with its neighbors. Diplomacy¹² is going to play an important part of securing Iraq's future."

George Friedman, chief executive officer of the private intelligence firm Stratfor, says the U.S. had no choice but to engage Iran because Washington and Tehran are in a stalemate over Iraq.

"Neither can have what they want," he said. "The United States is not going to get a pro-American government in Baghdad governing all the country. Iran is not going to get a pro-Iranian government in Baghdad governing all the country. Each side can block the other's ambitions, but neither side has to give in to give the other what they want. And what we're now doing is trying to do is find an accommodation that both sides can live with."

Wayne White, former chief State Department intelligence analyst³ on Iraq, is not optimistic that much of substance will emerge from the conference. Echoing the findings of a recent U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, he says the root cause of the violence lies in Iraq, not Iran.

"My reasoning about why I don't think it's going to do much is I don't think Iran is the problem," he said. "I think the cycle of violence in Iraq is the problem. And so since the problem is 95 percent Iraqi, and the Iraqi government is a shambles¹⁴, I don't expect these kinds of conferences to have much effect."

Mehrzad Boroujerdi, chairman of Middle East Studies at Syracuse University, says the U.S. will have to overcome Iranian and Syrian suspicion and mistrust of the United States. He says Washington will also have to offer some substantive¹⁵ concessions¹⁶ to Tehran and Damascus to get meaningful results out of the conference, but sees no sign that the Bush administration is willing to do so.

"The Iranians and the Syrians are going to be a bit apprehensive¹⁷ about signing on the dotted line on a plan that is to the liking¹⁸ of the United States without necessarily getting something in return, or an acknowledgement of the fact that they are going to have a say in the future of Iraq," noted¹⁹ Boroujerdi. "And frankly²⁰, I don't see the White House at this point being in the mood or ready to make such a compromise. So, at the end of the day, the question becomes, what besides a 'blaming game' would we get from this conference?"

Analysts also point out that the interaction between Iran and Saudi Arabia will be crucial to watch at the conference. Saudi Arabia, an Arab nation of Sunni Muslims, has long been a rival to Iran, which is Persian and overwhelmingly Shiite Muslim. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Riyadh one week before the Baghdad Conference for talks with King Abdullah.

Mehrzad Boroujerdi says Iran is warning Saudi Arabia not to oppose Iran's attempts to extend its influence in Iraq and the region.

"To me it has become quite clear that the U.S. is trying to convince the Saudis to side with them, to sort of create a Sunni bloc¹³ against the Shiite influence coming out of Iran," he said. "And I think the Iranians have also recognized the handwriting on the wall, and they are trying to do their part by having Ahmadinejad going to Saudi Arabia to politely and firmly let them know that this is going to have high costs for states that line up against Iran."

Meanwhile, the United States continues to proceed with its deployment²¹ of at least 22,000 additional troops to Iraq to try to stabilize²² the security situation.

1 mar   

vt.破坏，毁坏，弄糟

参考例句：

• It was not the custom for elderly people to mar the picnics with their presence.大人们照例不参加这样的野餐以免扫兴。
• Such a marriage might mar your career.这样的婚姻说不定会毁了你的一生。

2 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

3 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

4 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

5 engulfing   

adj.吞噬的v.吞没，包住( engulf的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• A photographer had fused the lights,engulfing the entire house darkness. 一位摄影师把电灯的保险丝烧断了，使整栋房子陷于黑暗当中。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• A professional photographer had fused the lights,engulfing the entire house in darkness. 一位职业摄影师把保险丝烧断了使整所房子陷于黑暗当中。 来自辞典例句

6 mosque   

n.清真寺

参考例句：

• The mosque is a activity site and culture center of Muslim religion.清真寺为穆斯林宗教活动场所和文化中心。
• Some years ago the clock in the tower of the mosque got out of order.几年前，清真寺钟楼里的大钟失灵了。

7 spotlight   

n.公众注意的中心，聚光灯，探照灯，视听，注意，醒目

参考例句：

• This week the spotlight is on the world of fashion.本周引人瞩目的是时装界。
• The spotlight followed her round the stage.聚光灯的光圈随着她在舞台上转。

8 mutual   

adj.相互的，彼此的；共同的，共有的

参考例句：

• We must pull together for mutual interest.我们必须为相互的利益而通力合作。
• Mutual interests tied us together.相互的利害关系把我们联系在一起。

9 hostility   

n.敌对，敌意；抵制［pl.］交战，战争

参考例句：

• There is open hostility between the two leaders.两位领导人表现出公开的敌意。
• His hostility to your plan is well known.他对你的计划所持的敌意是众所周知的。

10 insurgents   

n.起义，暴动，造反( insurgent的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The regular troops of Baden joined the insurgents. 巴登的正规军参加到起义军方面来了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Against the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, these problems are manageable. 要对付塔利班与伊拉克叛乱分子，这些问题还是可以把握住的。 来自互联网

11 constructive   

adj.建设的，建设性的

参考例句：

• We welcome constructive criticism.我们乐意接受有建设性的批评。
• He is beginning to deal with his anger in a constructive way.他开始用建设性的方法处理自己的怒气。

12 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

13 bloc   

n.集团；联盟

参考例句：

• A solid bloc of union members support the decision.工会会员团结起来支持该决定。
• There have been growing tensions within the trading bloc.贸易同盟国的关系越来越紧张。

14 shambles   

n.混乱之处；废墟

参考例句：

• My room is a shambles.我房间里乱七八糟。
• The fighting reduced the city to a shambles.这场战斗使这座城市成了一片废墟。

15 substantive   

adj.表示实在的；本质的、实质性的；独立的；n.实词，实名词；独立存在的实体

参考例句：

• They plan to meet again in Rome very soon to begin substantive negotiations.他们计划不久在罗马再次会晤以开始实质性的谈判。
• A president needs substantive advice,but he also requires emotional succor. 一个总统需要实质性的建议，但也需要感情上的支持。

16 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

17 apprehensive   

adj.担心的，恐惧的，善于领会的

参考例句：

• She was deeply apprehensive about her future.她对未来感到非常担心。
• He was rather apprehensive of failure.他相当害怕失败。

18 liking   

n.爱好；嗜好；喜欢

参考例句：

• The word palate also means taste or liking.Palate这个词也有“口味”或“嗜好”的意思。
• I must admit I have no liking for exaggeration.我必须承认我不喜欢夸大其词。

19 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

20 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。

21 deployment   

n. 部署,展开

参考例句：

• He has inquired out the deployment of the enemy troops. 他已查出敌军的兵力部署情况。
• Quality function deployment (QFD) is a widely used customer-driven quality, design and manufacturing management tool. 质量功能展开(quality function deployment,QFD)是一个广泛应用的顾客需求驱动的设计、制造和质量管理工具。

22 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。