2007年VOA标准英语-Twin Brother Political Analysts See Open Contes

By Greg Flakus
Houston
21 March 2007

Election fever is high in the United States, even though voters will not go to the polls until November of next year to elect a new president. As was evident in the last presidential election, divisions between North and South and East and West are likely to play a big role in the outcome. Twin brothers Earl and Merle Black, who have built nationwide reputations for their analysis of U.S. politics, especially in the South, have a new book out that focuses on how regional differences may play out at the polls. VOA's Greg Flakus has this report from Houston.

 
Merle and Earl Black with their new book
In their new book, Divided America, The Ferocious¹ Power Struggle in American Politics, twin brothers Earl and Merle Black use statistics, voting information and surveys to paint a picture of a nation divided into five distinct regions. They see the West coast and upper Northeast as firmly Democrat², with the South and Mountain states as solidly Republican. The Midwest is the swing region, with the state of Ohio being the biggest tossup.

Earl Black, who teaches political science at Rice University here in Houston and Merle Black, who teaches politics and government at Emory University in Atlanta, won renown³ for their studies on the changing South. They followed the rise of the Republican Party in what had once been known as a Democrat stronghold, referred to as "the solid South." In 1994, Republicans took the majority of congressional seats in the South and helped their party seize control of the U.S. Congress.

Now, Earl and Merle Black say, Democrats⁴ have responded by consolidating⁵ their hold on the Pacific states and the states of the Northeast, which, up until 50 years ago, had been solidly Republican. In a speech to the Houston World Affairs Council, Merle Black noted⁶ that Democrat gains in the 2006 congressional election left them with a 44-seat advantage in the Northeast, which will help the party hold control of the lower house of Congress.

 
Merle Black 
"The Democratic Northeast is now trumping⁷, for the first time in American history, it is trumping this Republican strength from the South," said Merle Black. "So that, even though the net number of seat changes is pretty small, if the Democrats can hold their strength in the Northeast, then the Republicans would need to get more than 45 surplus seats in the rest of the country in order to retake the House of Representatives. That is possible, but pretty unlikely."

In their book, the Black brothers say that the entrenchment⁸ of both parties in their strongest regions has given new importance to the swing states of the Midwest. Still, they say much will depend on which candidates emerge as the nominees⁹.

An example of how a candidate can possibly break through barriers is provided by former New York Mayor Rudy Guliani, who is leading in some polls of Republican voters. He is a divorcee whose views on such issues such as abortion¹⁰ and gun control are not in line with those of conservative evangelical Christians¹² who hold powerful sway in the South and Midwest. But, in a VOA interview, Merle Black says Guliani could win the Christian¹¹ conservative vote if the Democrats nominate New York Senator Hillary Clinton or someone else who evangelicals perceive as too liberal.

"While Guliani might not be their preferred candidate or the candidate they would like on their issues, they might wind up voting for him if they think he is better than the Democratic opponent on other issues," he said.

Merle and Earl Black say it is far too early to say how successful any of the candidates will be in their bid for votes among different groups. One factor that may help sort things out early on is the so-called front-loading of primaries, whereby California and some other large states are moving their primaries up to early February.

 
Earl Black signing his book
Earl Black says this will favor the strongest candidates and the ones with the most money.

"The difficulty of raising enough money to be really competitive in these big states that are going in early February is going to put a lot of pressure on campaigns that do not have enormous war chests," said Earl Black. "They are going to have devote a lot of time between now and next February to raising the kind of money to be competitive not just in California, but, it looks like, a number of other big, expensive states and that will, pretty soon, narrow the field on both sides."

Earl Black says one problem with the early primaries could be voter fatigue¹³. If the candidates have been chosen in both parties by the end of February, there will be a long gap for them to fill until the party conventions in July and August, where the formal nomination¹⁴ process takes place.

"If the candidates or nominees are really determined¹⁵ very early on, then the only thing that has not been determined is going to be the identity of the vice¹⁶ presidential candidates," he said. "Well, that is usually something that occupies one month of political time, but not eight or nine months. It is pretty hard to sustain the interest of most voters over that many months."

Earl and Merle Black see an open contest ahead for both the presidency¹⁷ and control of Congress, with control of the Senate being the most contentious¹⁸. In the end, they say, voters care less about issues than they do about how they see candidates in terms of their abilities and their leadership potential.

1 ferocious   

adj.凶猛的，残暴的，极度的，十分强烈的

参考例句：

• The ferocious winds seemed about to tear the ship to pieces.狂风仿佛要把船撕成碎片似的。
• The ferocious panther is chasing a rabbit.那只凶猛的豹子正追赶一只兔子。

2 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

3 renown   

n.声誉，名望

参考例句：

• His renown has spread throughout the country.他的名声已传遍全国。
• She used to be a singer of some renown.她曾是位小有名气的歌手。

4 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 consolidating   

v.（使）巩固， （使）加强( consolidate的现在分词 )；（使）合并

参考例句：

• These measures are meant for consolidating the system of basic medical care. 这些举措旨在夯实基层医疗体系，让老百姓看大病不必出远门。 来自互联网
• We are consolidating the Chinese and English versions of our homepage. 我们将为您提供中英文版本一起的主页。 来自互联网

6 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

7 trumping   

v.（牌戏）出王牌赢（一牌或一墩）( trump的现在分词 )；吹号公告，吹号庆祝；吹喇叭；捏造

参考例句：

• Reality has a way of trumping art, and human-climate change is very real indeed. 现实总有它的王牌艺术，受人类影响的气候变化的确成了事实。 来自互联网
• This quirky aversion may be a case of psychological security trumping physical comfort. 这种奇怪现象可能是缘于一个心理上的安全感战胜生理上的舒适感的例子。 来自互联网

8 entrenchment   

n.壕沟，防御设施

参考例句：

• Right below the entrenchment, you will find another underground bunker. 在堑壕的下方，你能找到另一个地下碉堡。 来自互联网
• There has been a shift in opinion on the issue after a decade of entrenchment. 在那议题上十年的固守之后，有了转变的看法。 来自互联网

9 nominees   

n.被提名者，被任命者( nominee的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• She's one of the nominees. 她是被提名者之一。 来自超越目标英语 第2册
• A startling number of his nominees for senior positions have imploded. 他所提名的高级官员被否决的数目令人震惊。 来自互联网

10 abortion   

n.流产，堕胎

参考例句：

• She had an abortion at the women's health clinic.她在妇女保健医院做了流产手术。
• A number of considerations have led her to have a wilful abortion.多种考虑使她执意堕胎。

11 Christian   

adj.基督教徒的；n.基督教徒

参考例句：

• They always addressed each other by their Christian name.他们总是以教名互相称呼。
• His mother is a sincere Christian.他母亲是个虔诚的基督教徒。

12 Christians   

n.基督教徒( Christian的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Christians of all denominations attended the conference. 基督教所有教派的人都出席了这次会议。
• His novel about Jesus caused a furore among Christians. 他关于耶稣的小说激起了基督教徒的公愤。

13 fatigue   

n.疲劳，劳累

参考例句：

• The old lady can't bear the fatigue of a long journey.这位老妇人不能忍受长途旅行的疲劳。
• I have got over my weakness and fatigue.我已从虚弱和疲劳中恢复过来了。

14 nomination   

n.提名，任命，提名权

参考例句：

• John is favourite to get the nomination for club president.约翰最有希望被提名为俱乐部主席。
• Few people pronounced for his nomination.很少人表示赞成他的提名。

15 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

16 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

17 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

18 contentious   

adj.好辩的，善争吵的

参考例句：

• She was really not of the contentious fighting sort.她委实不是好吵好闹的人。
• Since then they have tended to steer clear of contentious issues.从那时起，他们总想方设法避开有争议的问题。