2007年VOA标准英语-Al-Qaida Organization Remains Question Mark

By Gary Thomas
Washington
27 April 2007

Saudi Arabia announced Friday the roundup of 172 suspected terrorists for plots to attack Saudi installations. Those arrested are believed to be local members of al-Qaida. In this background report, VOA correspondent Gary Thomas tells us there are disagreements among Western intelligence analysts² about the organization of today's al-Qaida on the global and local level.

The Taleban was ousted³ from power in Kabul and al-Qaida was forced underground by the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. But the jihadists have proved to be resilient. The Taleban has regrouped to launch new attacks into Afghanistan from safe havens⁴ in Pakistan's border areas.

An image grab taken from a video broadcast on Al-Jazeera television 20 Dec 2006 shows al-Qaida number two Ayman al-Zawahiri

Intelligence analysts say al-Qaida has reorganized there as well, and new terrorist attacks attributed to al-Qaida or its allies have popped up from Bali to London to Algiers.

Bruce Riedel, who has served in senior positions in the Pentagon, the CIA., and the National Security Council, says al-Qaida was, as he put it, on the ropes in 2002, but the U.S. failed to deliver the knockout punch.

"We've seen al-Qaida and its Taleban allies rebuild their base of operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan [in] what I call the 'Pakistani Badlands.' These operations were interrupted by the invasion of Afghanistan," he said. "But instead of finishing the job, we turned our attention away from it to Iraq. And they have successfully recovered."

But there are differences of opinion in counter-terrorism and intelligence circles about the how al-Qaida has reconstituted itself.

One U.S. counter-terrorism analyst¹, who cannot be publicly named for security reasons, says al-Qaida is seeking to unite disparate radical⁵ Islamic jihadist groups under the al-Qaida banner.

This analyst, whom we will call "Nancy," says that al-Qaida has signed up some significant jihadist groups. But, she adds, some radical Islamist organizations are reluctant to get absorbed into al-Qaida for fear their local grievances⁶ or concerns will be overshadowed by al-Qaida's wider global objectives.

"Al-Qaida itself has attempted, I think, to become a bit more in control, if they can, more centralized," she said. "They still believe very firmly in having an organized jihadist movement, and they have achieved that to a certain degree.

"But there are individual disagreements, there are groups that want to maintain their own identity. And so it isn't always perfect from al-Qaida's point of view," she added.

But Bruce Riedel, who has 30 years of intelligence experience in the Middle East, believes that al-Qaida is more loosely organized. Using a business model, he says the organization is satisfied with franchises⁸ instead of strong centralized control.

"Al-Qaida doesn't seek to be the Comintern of the Islamic revolution. It is quite happy to franchise⁷ out and allow local groups a fair degree of independence as long as they adhere to the overall ideology⁹ of jihadism, and striking both the far enemy and the near enemy," he said. "And one of the most disturbing things I think we're seeing recently is the increasing proliferation of these franchises."

Intelligence analyst Nancy says that if al-Qaida is going down the franchise path as Riedel asserts, it may do so to ensure that the global jihad continues even if the central al-Qaida command is eliminated.

"If al-Qaida succeeds in the franchise thing, and they really have groups that will follow al-Qaida's agenda, if they really get them signed on and they create a situation where they don't need the leadership and we find a situation where it really doesn't matter if we find bin¹⁰ Laden¹¹ and al-Zawahiri, that now it's self-perpetuating -- that's what I'd be most concerned about," she said.

Riedel says al-Qaida in Iraq under the leadership of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been the most successful al-Qaida franchise as he exploited the differences between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims.

"The al-Qaida franchise in Iraq in particular has a intense anti-Shia animus," said Riedel. "Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, whatever we may say of him, was an evil genius in that he understood that the way to create chaos¹² in Iraq was to strike at the fault line of Iraqi politics, the Sunni-Shia divide, and create a Sunni-Shia civil war. He succeeded, perhaps, even beyond his own imagination."

Zarqawi merged¹³ his insurgent¹⁴ group with al-Qaida in 2004 and swore allegiance to Osama bin Laden. But differences later emerged, analysts say, between Zarqawi and al-Qaida leaders, who found Zarqawi's tactics counterproductive and too brutal¹⁵ even for them. Zarqawi was killed by a U.S. air strike in June of last year.

1 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 ousted   

驱逐( oust的过去式和过去分词 )； 革职； 罢黜； 剥夺

参考例句：

• He was ousted as chairman. 他的主席职务被革除了。
• He may be ousted by a military takeover. 他可能在一场军事接管中被赶下台。

4 havens   

n.港口，安全地方( haven的名词复数 )v.港口，安全地方( haven的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Your twenty havens would back out at the last minute anyhow. 你那二十个避难所到了最后一分钟也要不认帐。 来自辞典例句
• Using offshore havens to avoid taxes and investor protections. 使用海面的港口避免税和投资者保护。 来自互联网

5 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

6 grievances   

n.委屈( grievance的名词复数 )；苦衷；不满；牢骚

参考例句：

• The trade union leader spoke about the grievances of the workers. 工会领袖述说工人们的苦情。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• He gave air to his grievances. 他申诉了他的冤情。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 franchise   

n.特许，特权，专营权，特许权

参考例句：

• Catering in the schools is run on a franchise basis.学校餐饮服务以特许权经营。
• The United States granted the franchise to women in 1920.美国于1920年给妇女以参政权。

8 franchises   

n.（尤指选举议员的）选举权( franchise的名词复数 )；参政权；获特许权的商业机构（或服务）；（公司授予的）特许经销权v.给…以特许权，出售特许权( franchise的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• TV franchises will be auctioned to the highest bidder. 电视特许经营权将拍卖给出价最高的投标人。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Ford dealerships operated as independent franchises. 福特汽车公司的代销商都是独立的联营商。 来自辞典例句

9 ideology   

n.意识形态，(政治或社会的)思想意识

参考例句：

• The ideology has great influence in the world.这种思想体系在世界上有很大的影响。
• The ideal is to strike a medium between ideology and inspiration.我的理想是在意识思想和灵感鼓动之间找到一个折衷。

10 bin   

n.箱柜；vt.放入箱内；[计算机] DOS文件名:二进制目标文件

参考例句：

• He emptied several bags of rice into a bin.他把几袋米倒进大箱里。
• He threw the empty bottles in the bin.他把空瓶子扔进垃圾箱。

11 laden   

adj.装满了的；充满了的；负了重担的；苦恼的

参考例句：

• He is laden with heavy responsibility.他肩负重任。
• Dragging the fully laden boat across the sand dunes was no mean feat.将满载货物的船拖过沙丘是一件了不起的事。

12 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

13 merged   

（使）混合( merge的过去式和过去分词 )； 相融； 融入； 渐渐消失在某物中

参考例句：

• Turf wars are inevitable when two departments are merged. 两个部门合并时总免不了争争权限。
• The small shops were merged into a large market. 那些小商店合并成为一个大商场。

14 insurgent   

adj.叛乱的，起事的；n.叛乱分子

参考例句：

• Faruk says they are threatened both by insurgent and government forces.法鲁克说，他们受到暴乱分子和政府军队的双重威胁。
• The insurgent mob assembled at the gate of the city park.叛变的暴徒聚在市立公园的门口。

15 brutal   

adj.残忍的，野蛮的，不讲理的

参考例句：

• She has to face the brutal reality.她不得不去面对冷酷的现实。
• They're brutal people behind their civilised veneer.他们表面上温文有礼，骨子里却是野蛮残忍。