2007年VOA标准英语-Forecasters Predict Higher Number of Atlantic H

By David McAlary
Washington
22 May 2007

U.S. government weather forecasters are predicting more Atlantic Ocean hurricanes this year than normal. They say last year's relatively¹ calm hurricane season should not lull² anyone into thinking that the upsurge in hurricane activity that began in the mid-1990s is over. VOA's David McAlary reports from Washington.

An average season brings six Atlantic hurricanes, with two of them major. But the U.S. oceans and atmosphere agency NOAA says there is a 75 percent chance of 10 hurricanes through November, with three to five major ones.

NOAA's lead hurricane forecaster, Gerry Bell, says it is part of a periodic increase in hurricane activity.

"We are in an active hurricane era that started in 1995," said Bell. "While we can't say for sure how long this era will last, historically other active eras have lasted 25 to 40 years."

Hurricane Katrina makes landfall

Bell says residents of the Caribbean and the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf³ coasts should be prepared this year, although he cannot specify⁴ where or when.

"Seasons with similar levels of activity have historically had two to four land-falling U.S. hurricanes and generally two to three hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea," he said.

"However, it is important to note that it is currently not possible to confidently predict at these extended ranges the exact number or intensity⁵ of land-falling hurricanes or whether a given locality will be impacted this season," Bell continued.

More frequent hurricanes were also expected last year, but the predictions went awry⁶ when a global weather pattern called El Nino interfered⁷ in August and September, the peak of the season. An El Nino weakens trade winds in the lower atmosphere that move hurricanes and strengthens the jet stream in the upper atmosphere that shears⁸ their tops off.

Bell says there is a strong likelihood that another weather pattern, called La Nina, will develop in one to three months with the opposite effect.

"Unfortunately the combination of La Nina and an active hurricane era is known to produce very active hurricane seasons," he said. "Now, even if La Nina doesn't develop, the conditions associated with this ongoing⁹ active hurricane era still favor an above normal season."

The advent¹⁰ of a La Nina would also have other global weather impacts opposite those of an El Nino. While El Ninos warm the waters of the equatorial Pacific, La Ninas cool them.

NOAA climate expert Edward O'Lenic says the cooler sea surface affects the atmosphere so that regions accustomed to certain types of weather such as rain or drought experience them more intensely.

"One simple way to get a handle on [understand] the impacts of La Nina and El Nino is to think of them as the opposite sides of the same coin," he said. "Where La Nina tends to make places that are normally wet, wetter and places that are normally dry, drier, El Nino does the opposite of that in those locations."

In addition to intensifying¹¹ Atlantic hurricane activity, La Ninas usually cause increased rainfall across Indonesia and northern Australia, the Amazon Basin, southeastern Africa, Scandinavia, and the U.S. Great Lakes region and Pacific northwest.

In contrast, below average rainfall normally occurs across the eastern half of the Pacific at the equator, eastern equatorial Africa, Japan and Korea, the southern United States and northern Mexico.

1 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

2 lull   

v.使安静，使入睡，缓和，哄骗；n.暂停，间歇

参考例句：

• The drug put Simpson in a lull for thirty minutes.药物使辛普森安静了30分钟。
• Ground fighting flared up again after a two-week lull.经过两个星期的平静之后，地面战又突然爆发了。

3 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。

4 specify   

vt.指定，详细说明

参考例句：

• We should specify a time and a place for the meeting.我们应指定会议的时间和地点。
• Please specify what you will do.请你详述一下你将做什么。

5 intensity   

n.强烈，剧烈；强度；烈度

参考例句：

• I didn't realize the intensity of people's feelings on this issue.我没有意识到这一问题能引起群情激奋。
• The strike is growing in intensity.罢工日益加剧。

6 awry   

adj.扭曲的，错的

参考例句：

• She was in a fury over a plan that had gone awry. 计划出了问题，她很愤怒。
• Something has gone awry in our plans.我们的计划出差错了。

7 interfered   

v.干预( interfere的过去式和过去分词 )；调停；妨碍；干涉

参考例句：

• Complete absorption in sports interfered with his studies. 专注于运动妨碍了他的学业。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I am not going to be interfered with. 我不想别人干扰我的事情。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 shears   

n.大剪刀

参考例句：

• These garden shears are lightweight and easy to use.这些园丁剪刀又轻又好用。
• With a few quick snips of the shears he pruned the bush.他用大剪刀几下子就把灌木给修剪好了。

9 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

10 advent   

n.(重要事件等的)到来，来临

参考例句：

• Swallows come by groups at the advent of spring. 春天来临时燕子成群飞来。
• The advent of the Euro will redefine Europe.欧元的出现将重新定义欧洲。

11 intensifying   

v.（使）增强， （使）加剧( intensify的现在分词 )；增辉

参考例句：

• The allies are intensifying their air campaign. 联军部队正加大他们的空战强度。 来自辞典例句
• The rest of the European powers were in a state of intensifying congestion. 其余的欧洲强国则处于越来越拥挤的状态。 来自英汉非文学 - 历史