2007年VOA标准英语-Economists Say Asian Currency Gains Not Likely

By Heda Bayron
Hong Kong
06 June 2007

Several Asian currencies have gained against the U.S. dollar in recent months, and that could hurt the region's main source of economic growth: exports. But as VOA's Heda Bayron reports from Hong Kong, some economists¹ and government officials downplay the impact of stronger currencies.

The Philippine peso has reached a seven-year high against the U.S. dollar. The Malaysian ringgit has risen nearly four percent this year and the Indian rupee gained some 10 percent.

Economists such as Song Sen Wun at CIMB-GK Goh Securities in Singapore say the gains reflect Asia's robust² economies.

"The gains reflect the economic fundamentals in that they are starting to see greater inflows … into the equity³ market, to the real economy," Song said.

So much foreign money is coming in to the region's stock markets that indexes have been hitting new highs. When foreigners invest in Asia, they buy the local currencies, which pushes up their value.

But there could be a downside to this: a stronger currency makes Asian exports more expensive in the United States. A drop in export sales would hurt the region's export-driven economies.

That is why South Korea's central bank is closely watching the movements of the won and has warned it would act if the exchange rates reach a level that harms exports.

But some economists and government officials are not concerned.

Philippine President Gloria Arroyo⁴ welcomed the peso appreciation⁵, calling it a sign of strong foreign investor⁶ confidence in the country. She argues a rising peso will help stop price inflation, because imports such as oil will be cheaper.

Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi also says the ringgit's appreciation is good for the economy as long as trading is not volatile⁷.

Adrian Mowat, chief Asian and emerging markets strategist at the investment bank JP Morgan, downplays the impact of rising currencies. He says Asian exports now have a bigger, more diverse market, as demand in rapidly growing countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China - referred to as BRIC - expands.

"The bigger picture is that emerging economies are growing strongly," Mowat said. "The fact that exports are made marginally less affordable⁸ for the U.S. consumer, I think it's a bit of sideshow now. We have to look at what is really driving the global economy today and if you look at statistics more than two and a half times the contribution to the global growth would come from BRICS as opposed to the U.S. in 2007."

Moreover, some currencies like the Japanese yen⁹, South Korean won and the Singapore dollar have slightly depreciated¹⁰ against the euro. That may compensate¹¹ for their more expensive exports to the United States, by making exports to Europe cheaper.

1 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

3 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

4 arroyo   

n.干涸的河床，小河

参考例句：

• She continued along the path until she came to the arroyo.她沿着小路一直走到小河边。
• They had a picnic by the arroyo.他们在干枯的河床边野餐过。

5 appreciation   

n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨

参考例句：

• I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
• I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。

6 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

7 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

8 affordable   

adj.支付得起的，不太昂贵的

参考例句：

• The rent for the four-roomed house is affordable.四居室房屋的房租付得起。
• There are few affordable apartments in big cities.在大城市中没有几所公寓是便宜的。

9 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

10 depreciated   

v.贬值，跌价，减价( depreciate的过去式和过去分词 )；贬低，蔑视，轻视

参考例句：

• Fixed assets are fully depreciated. 折旧足额。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Shares in the company have depreciated. 该公司的股票已经贬值。 来自辞典例句

11 compensate   

vt.补偿，赔偿；酬报 vi.弥补；补偿；抵消

参考例句：

• She used her good looks to compensate her lack of intelligence. 她利用她漂亮的外表来弥补智力的不足。
• Nothing can compensate for the loss of one's health. 一个人失去了键康是不可弥补的。