2007年VOA标准英语-Asia's Crisis-hit Economies Rebound with Reform

By Ron Corben
Bangkok
02 July 2007

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A Thai investor has a lot more going for her than ten years ago, 13 June 2007

Asian economies hit by the financial crisis of a decade ago have now recovered, thanks in part to reforms and strengthened banking² systems. As Ron Corben reports from Bangkok, one outcome has that banks remain conservative, wary³ of over-lending and re-living the financial collapse⁴ of the late 1990s.
 
A decade after much of Asia was swept into a deep recession triggered by financial crisis, the region's cities are booming again. Markets have recovered, and economic growth is back on track.
 
The crisis was kicked off on July 2, 1997, when the Thailand's central bank floated the baht in an effort to stop a massive flow of capital out of the country. Instead, it began a recession that left bitter memories throughout the region.
 
In the early 1990s, Southeast Asia's so-called Tiger economies were favorites of international bankers and investors⁵, who poured money into Asian stock markets and corporate⁶ loans.
 
But the region's financial markets had weaknesses. Debt was often short-term, and central banks kept exchange rates essentially⁷ fixed⁸ to the U.S. dollar. Many banks lent recklessly and businesses expanded too far.
 
When capital began to flow out of Thailand in 1996 over fears that some borrowers could not pay their debts, the central bank spent foreign currency reserves to keep the baht from weakening. Supavud Saicheua, an economist⁹ with Phatra Securities in Bangkok, says the conditions were ripe for a downturn.
 
"Looking back, yes, Thailand had a current account deficit¹⁰ of seven to eight percent - that was not sustainable," Supavud said.
 
Thailand's foreign exchange reserves fell from $37 billion in January 1997 to less than $1 billion by June. Finally, the government caved in and floated the baht.
 
Panicked investors raced to move their money out of other Asian markets - Indonesia and South Korea were particularly hard hit. Huh Chan-Guk is director and senior research fellow at the Korea Economic Research Institute in Seoul.
 
"When the crisis hit in 1997, at the end of 1997, Korean foreign exchange holdings were down to about $3 billion. And that was the immediate¹¹ cause of the crisis, namely the shortage of foreign exchange," Huh said.
 
Some economies in the region contracted 10 percent or more in 1998. Across Asia, tens of thousands of companies were shut, and millions of people lost their jobs.
 
Governments sought help from the International Monetary¹² Fund, which lent billions of dollars to stabilize¹³ currencies. But it required governments to raise interest rates and to balance their budgets. Many economists¹⁴, including Supavud in Thailand, say that made the suffering worse.
 
"We had too tight a monetary policy causing interest rates to be 20 percent or more," Supavud said.  "That policy alone contributed too much in terms of deflation. That could have been avoided. I think the IMF itself realizes that it did go overboard with restrictive policies" 
 
But other policies helped the region recover. Weak banks were shut. New bankruptcy¹⁵ laws were passed. And sectors¹⁶ closed to foreign investment before the crisis, were now opened to it.

Ifzal Ali, the chief economist for the Asian Development Bank, says the region did not take long to bounce back.

"Asia recovered very quickly from the crisis. Within two years it was back on its feet, and that basically shows that, while it was traumatic, countries basically, I think, internalized these tensions very quickly and have come out reasonably well," Ali said.
 
There have been lasting¹⁷ effects. Korean analyst¹⁸ Huh says businesses are more cautious than before the crisis.
 
"Before the crisis one could count on official assistance or favorable influence by the government, but that atmosphere has changed quite a lot. So large businesses in general have become more conservative," Huh said.
 
Richard Gibbs, chief economist of Sydney-based Macquarie Bank, says the crisis led central banks to more closely monitor foreign exchange flows.
 
"Regional central banks are now playing a much larger role in monitoring and managing the flow of capital through the region which was not the case prior to the financial crisis," Gibbs said.
 
But economists warn that banks are too conservative about lending, which hampers¹⁹ growth, especially when high unemployment and poverty still afflict²⁰ countries like Indonesia.

Bob Widyahartono, an economist at Jakarta's Tarumanagara University, says conservative lending restricts credit to many Indonesian businesses.
 
"The system makes the banks very, very careful or too careful. They wait, they doubt and cannot make a firm decision on the small and medium enterprises," Widyahartono said.
 
The financial crisis left deep financial scars and memories and hard-learned lessons. But analysts²¹ say the region's financial system is more transparent²² and easier to monitor, raising hopes the region will avoid any repeats of the crisis of the 1990s.

1 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

2 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

3 wary   

adj.谨慎的，机警的，小心的

参考例句：

• He is wary of telling secrets to others.他谨防向他人泄露秘密。
• Paula frowned,suddenly wary.宝拉皱了皱眉头，突然警惕起来。

4 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

5 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

6 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

7 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

8 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

9 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

10 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

11 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

12 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

13 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

14 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 bankruptcy   

n.破产；无偿付能力

参考例句：

• You will have to pull in if you want to escape bankruptcy.如果你想避免破产，就必须节省开支。
• His firm is just on thin ice of bankruptcy.他的商号正面临破产的危险。

16 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

17 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

18 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

19 hampers   

妨碍，束缚，限制( hamper的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Prejudice sometimes hampers a person from doing the right thing. 有时候，偏见会妨碍人正确行事。
• This behavior is the opposite of modeless feedback, and it hampers flow. 这个行为有悖于非模态的反馈，它阻碍了流。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

20 afflict   

vt.使身体或精神受痛苦，折磨

参考例句：

• I wish you wouldn't afflict me with your constant complains.我希望你不要总是抱怨而使我苦恼。
• There are many illnesses,which afflict old people.有许多疾病困扰着老年人。

21 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

22 transparent   

adj.明显的，无疑的；透明的

参考例句：

• The water is so transparent that we can see the fishes swimming.水清澈透明，可以看到鱼儿游来游去。
• The window glass is transparent.窗玻璃是透明的。