VOA标准英语2008年-UN Sees Risk of Global Recession

By Lisa Schlein
Geneva
09 January 2008

A new U.N. report says the risk of global economic recession is rising.  The report, by the U.N. Conference On Trade and Development, says international trade is expected to slow and the world economy to cool off.  Lisa Schlein reports for VOA at the launch of the report in Geneva.

World economic growth was robust¹ last year.  The report notes more than 100 economies achieved three percent growth or more.  And growth in developing countries rose on average nearly seven percent.  Africa, it notes, grew by nearly six-percent and is expected to exceed that figure this year.

But, the U.N. Conference On Trade and Development says there is a clear danger of the world economy coming to a near standstill in 2008.  The report says this will hit many poor nations hard, slow world trade and put an end to the boom in commodity prices. 

Heiner Flassbeck is an official at the U.N. agency.  He says the major uncertainties² for 2008 arise from the U.S. economy.

"We have seen already a crisis in the third quarter of last year, the so-called sub-prime crisis," he noted³.  "This has sent some shock waves all around the world and these shock waves have had already a number of repercussions⁴ that could lead to a much worse outcome in 2008." 

U.N. economists⁵ say significant spillover effects from the problems in the U.S. mortgage markets have spread to major European countries and, to a lesser⁶ extent, to Japan and other developed economies.

Flassbeck says the world can no longer count on the United States as being the sole locomotive of the world economy.  He says Japan and Europe have to do more to take over this role.  But, he adds, there is no sign yet that other major developed economies are strong enough to replace the United States as the engine of global growth.

He says the world economy would suffer a severe blow if the United States were to go into recession.

"Recession is a real threat, but nobody can tell whether it materializes or not at this moment of time," he added.  "As I said, that is the result of uncertainty⁷ still surrounding, what is called, the sub-prime crisis because still nobody knows exactly how much additional value will have to be written off or how much additional losses will occur in the financial system as a whole in the United States and elsewhere." 

The U.N. report notes a 15 percent drop in housing prices would be likely to affect consumer demand and take two-percent off U.S. growth, bringing the U.S. economy to a virtual standstill in 2008.

It finds the fall of the U.S. dollar is benefiting the United States by lowering its export prices and making imports higher.  But, it says the depreciation⁸ of the dollar is hurting other economies. 

The report says governments should take joint⁹ action to avoid a rout¹⁰ of the dollar.  It warns a rapid and disorderly descent could lead to a global recession.

1 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

2 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

3 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

4 repercussions   

n.后果，反响( repercussion的名词复数 )；余波

参考例句：

• The collapse of the company will have repercussions for the whole industry. 这家公司的垮台将会给整个行业造成间接的负面影响。
• Human acts have repercussions far beyond the frontiers of the human world. 人类行为所产生的影响远远超出人类世界的范围。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 lesser   

adj.次要的，较小的；adv.较小地，较少地

参考例句：

• Kept some of the lesser players out.不让那些次要的球员参加联赛。
• She has also been affected,but to a lesser degree.她也受到波及，但程度较轻。

7 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

8 depreciation   

n.价值低落，贬值，蔑视，贬低

参考例句：

• She can't bear the depreciation of the enemy.她受不了敌人的蹂躏。
• They wrote off 500 for depreciation of machinery.他们注销了500镑作为机器折旧费。

9 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

10 rout   

n.溃退，溃败；v.击溃，打垮

参考例句：

• The enemy was put to rout all along the line.敌人已全线崩溃。
• The people's army put all to rout wherever they went.人民军队所向披靡。