VOA标准英语2008年-US Budget Official Predicts Slow Economic Growt

By Michael Bowman
Washington
23 January 2008

Amid continued global market turmoil¹, the U.S. Congress' top economic forecaster says he believes the United States is entering a period of slow growth, but that the country will avoid a recession. VOA's Michael Bowman reports from Washington, where the head of the Congressional Budget Office testified on Capitol Hill Wednesday.

According to many economists², the root cause of this week's worldwide market upheaval³ is the widespread view that the United States is at risk of a recession after four years of moderate-to-robust growth. Such fears have been stoked by recent reports of a slowdown in the economy, rising unemployment, and no end in sight to a credit crunch⁴ as well as a weakening U.S. housing market.

But are the fears justified⁵? Maybe, but probably not, according to the assessment⁶ from Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Peter Orszag.

"The bottom line is that the risk of recession is substantially elevated," he said.  "But CBO expects a period of unusually weak growth rather than outright⁷ recession: growth for the year as a whole of under two percent and a rise in the unemployment rate to an average of 5.1 percent during 2008."

Orszag was speaking before the House Budget Committee. Before the committee met, one member, Democratic Representative Jim Cooper, predicted Washington will act soon to boost the economy in the form of a federal stimulus⁸ package, with its centerpiece likely to be rebate⁹ checks for U.S. taxpayers¹⁰.

"I think you are going to see Democrats¹¹ and Republicans, the White House and Congress putting about a one percent [of GDP] stimulus into this economy," he explained.  "Hopefully the checks can be in people's hands by the spring [coming months], at the latest by June."

Recent days have seen a flurry of discussions between congressional leaders and White House officials in an attempt to craft the package, with a current estimated price tag of about $150 billion.

But some on Capitol Hill are raising concerns about the plan. Paul Ryan is the ranking Republican on the Budget Committee.

"I am concerned that, in our rush to help, we will talk ourselves into a quick feel-good hit [plan] today that will leave us with a bigger budgetary hangover tomorrow," he explained.  "We need to understand that we simply cannot spend our way to prosperity. I am particularly concerned that Congress will use the excuse of fiscal¹² stimulus to push through a wish list of new spending, further worsening our budget outlook and our nation's economic future."

To date, there appears to be bipartisan consensus¹³ that any package should be quickly implemented¹⁴ and brief in duration, a quick financial jolt¹⁵ to spur consumer and business spending.

But will it work? CBO Director Orszag says the economic bounce resulting from the last stimulus package, enacted¹⁶ in 2001 as the United States was slipping into recession, proved to be greater than many economists had predicted. He added that lower-income Americans are more likely to quickly spend any tax rebate, while the wealthy are more likely to save or invest the extra cash.

The larger question of whether a recession can be avoided, with or without a stimulus package, is a matter of debate. Eric Schurenberg is managing editor of Money Magazine.

"It is really hard to know what will happen. A lot depends on whether financial institutions can work themselves out of this credit crunch and begin lending again and put money to work in the economy," he noted¹⁷.

Already the U.S. Central Bank has acted to make it easier for consumers and businesses to secure loans. Tuesday, the Federal Reserve lowered a key interest rate by three-quarters of one percent, and many economists predict further rate cuts will be forthcoming.

But if a global economic downturn is to be averted¹⁸, some believe central banks in Europe and elsewhere will have to follow the Fed's lead.

Art Hogan is chief market strategist at the global investing house Jefferies and Company.

''When you see the Fed getting aggressive, you hope that is something that will be in a synchronized¹⁹ fashion with other [central banks of] industrialized nations, in particular the European Central Bank and the Bank of England," he noted.  "That not happening yet has been a disappointment in the marketplace, and we seeing some [stock] selling pressure because of that."

For a second straight day, U.S. markets opened sharply lower, with oil prices down.

1 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 upheaval   

n.胀起，(地壳)的隆起；剧变，动乱

参考例句：

• It was faced with the greatest social upheaval since World War Ⅱ.它面临第二次世界大战以来最大的社会动乱。
• The country has been thrown into an upheaval.这个国家已经陷入动乱之中。

4 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

5 justified   

a.正当的，有理的

参考例句：

• She felt fully justified in asking for her money back. 她认为有充分的理由要求退款。
• The prisoner has certainly justified his claims by his actions. 那个囚犯确实已用自己的行动表明他的要求是正当的。

6 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

7 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

8 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

9 rebate   

v./n.折扣，回扣，退款；vt.给...回扣，给...打折扣

参考例句：

• You can claim a rebate on your tax.你可以要求退回部分税款。
• Customers are to benefit from a rebate on their electricity bills.顾客将从他们的电费退费中得到实惠。

10 taxpayers   

纳税人，纳税的机构( taxpayer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Finance for education comes from taxpayers. 教育经费来自纳税人。
• She was declaiming against the waste of the taxpayers' money. 她慷慨陈词猛烈抨击对纳税人金钱的浪费。

11 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

13 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

14 implemented   

v.实现( implement的过去式和过去分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• This agreement, if not implemented, is a mere scrap of paper. 这个协定如不执行只不过是一纸空文。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The economy is in danger of collapse unless far-reaching reforms are implemented. 如果不实施影响深远的改革，经济就面临崩溃的危险。 来自辞典例句

15 jolt   

v.（使）摇动，（使）震动，（使）颠簸

参考例句：

• We were worried that one tiny jolt could worsen her injuries.我们担心稍微颠簸一下就可能会使她的伤势恶化。
• They were working frantically in the fear that an aftershock would jolt the house again.他们拼命地干着，担心余震可能会使房子再次受到震动。

16 enacted   

制定（法律），通过（法案）( enact的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• legislation enacted by parliament 由议会通过的法律
• Outside in the little lobby another scene was begin enacted. 外面的小休息室里又是另一番景象。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

17 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

18 averted   

防止，避免( avert的过去式和过去分词 )； 转移

参考例句：

• A disaster was narrowly averted. 及时防止了一场灾难。
• Thanks to her skilful handling of the affair, the problem was averted. 多亏她对事情处理得巧妙，才避免了麻烦。

19 synchronized   

同步的

参考例句：

• Do not use the synchronized keyword in Managed Objects. 不要在管理对象上使用synchronized关键字。 来自互联网
• The timing of the gun was precisely synchronized with the turning of the plane's propeller. 风门的调速与飞机螺旋桨的转动精确同步。 来自辞典例句