voa标准英语2008年-Cost Estimates of Fixing US Economy Vary Widely

How much will it cost to spend the U.S. economy back to health? And who will pay the bill? VOA's Kent Klein in Washington asked economists² for their insights on those questions.

The U.S. government is spending an unprecedented³ amount of money to restore the vitality⁴ of the country's economy.

The government is implementing⁵ a plan to commit more than $770 billion to rescue America's financial institutions. That is on top of $152 billion in tax cuts and economic incentives⁶ President George Bush approved earlier this year. The administration has also spent large amounts of money to rescue mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the huge insurance company AIG. More bailouts are being considered for banking⁷ giant CitiGroup and U.S. automakers General Motors, Ford⁸ and Chrysler.

In addition, the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama is proposing a two-year economic stimulus⁹ package estimated between $300 billion and $700 billion.

With numbers so large, it is difficult to project the ultimate price of the overall recovery effort. Estimates vary widely, but Gus Faucher, the director of macroeconomics at the Web site Moody's Economy.com, says the answer will probably contain 13 digits¹⁰.

"By the time we are finished, I think it is probably going to be somewhere close to $2 trillion, once you include the various stimulus packages and the cost of the various bailouts, which is, needless to say, quite a bit of money," said Gus Faucher.

Even in the world's largest economy, it is difficult, if not impossible, to raise such enormous amounts of capital. So where will the money come from? Gus Faucher says the government will borrow the money, much of it from other countries.

"They are going to be going out and selling bonds, and most of the buyers of those bonds are going to be from overseas," he said. "So, it is going to be foreigners who are buying U.S. bonds, in a sense funding our budget deficit¹¹."

Many economists agree that deficit spending is a necessary evil, to get a faltering¹² economy moving again. James Horney, the director of federal fiscal¹³ policy at the Washington-based Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, agrees. But he says Mr. Obama and his economic team are right to be concerned about how gigantic spending programs will affect the federal budget in the long term.

"While it is necessary for us to run up these big deficits¹⁴ in the short run, I think it is crucial for President-elect Obama and his team to demostrate how, in the longer run, they are going to put us on a path to reduce those deficits, and President-elect Obama and his team have certainly talked about that," said James Horney.

Another question is whether the U.S. government will be able to recoup the money it is spending to revitalize the economy. Ken¹ Mayland, the president of a research firm called ClearView Economics, says the government has recovered its investment in most previous corporate¹⁵ bailouts.

"When you look back at the so-called 'bailout' of Chrysler in the early '80's, the federal government made money, in the end, made money on that," said Ken Mayland. "There was some kind of assistance to the airlines after 9/11 [the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001], and there was a return of that. The outlays¹⁶ are going to seem horrendous¹⁷, but there will be some return."

Part of the economic recovery plan involves the government buying stock in banks, and Gus Faucher says that move could pay for itself in the long term.

"Presumably, they will get dividends¹⁸ on that stock, and then, at some point in the future, the federal government will sell that stock out on the market and make some money off of that. So, in terms of the $700 billion for the bailout, the federal government is likely to get most, if not all of that back, and if things work out," said Faucher. "OK, it is even possible the government can turn a profit there."

But will it work? James Horney says it will, eventually. He believes that while the stimulus packages and bailouts will not immediately stop the recession, they will soften¹⁹ the effects of the economic downturn and will turn the U.S. economy in the right direction.

"I think there is reason to hope that the steps that are being taken and the steps that will be taken in coming months will serve to stabilize²⁰ the financial markets and stabilize the economy," he said. "That is not to say that we are not going to suffer from a slowdown, that unemployment is not going to go up, but that we will, in fact, start heading toward a turnaround, where [we] can start building the economy back up."

President-elect Obama, as he assembled his economic team, warned the American people that the economy will likely get worse before it gets better. But he hopes that his economic initiatives, added to those President Bush has put in place, will get things moving again.

1 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

4 vitality   

n.活力，生命力，效力

参考例句：

• He came back from his holiday bursting with vitality and good health.他度假归来之后，身强体壮，充满活力。
• He is an ambitious young man full of enthusiasm and vitality.他是个充满热情与活力的有远大抱负的青年。

5 implementing   

v.实现( implement的现在分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• -- Implementing a comprehensive drug control strategy. ――实行综合治理的禁毒战略。 来自汉英非文学 - 白皮书
• He was in no hurry about implementing his unshakable principle. 他并不急于实行他那不可动摇的原则。 来自辞典例句

6 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

7 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

8 Ford   

n.浅滩，水浅可涉处；v.涉水，涉过

参考例句：

• They were guarding the bridge,so we forded the river.他们驻守在那座桥上，所以我们只能涉水过河。
• If you decide to ford a stream,be extremely careful.如果已决定要涉过小溪，必须极度小心。

9 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

10 digits   

n.数字( digit的名词复数 )；手指，足趾

参考例句：

• The number 1000 contains four digits. 1000是四位数。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The number 410 contains three digits. 数字 410 中包括三个数目字。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

11 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

12 faltering   

犹豫的，支吾的，蹒跚的

参考例句：

• The economy shows no signs of faltering. 经济没有衰退的迹象。
• I canfeel my legs faltering. 我感到我的腿在颤抖。

13 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

14 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

15 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

16 outlays   

v.支出，费用( outlay的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• They report substantial slashes in this year's defense outlays. 他们报道今年度国防经费的大量削减。 来自辞典例句
• For MU, there were no upfront risks or cash outlays. 对摩托罗拉大学而言，没有风险或现金费用。 来自互联网

17 horrendous   

adj.可怕的，令人惊惧的

参考例句：

• He described it as the most horrendous experience of his life.他形容这是自己一生中最可怕的经历。
• The mining industry in China has a horrendous safety record.中国的煤矿工业具有令人不安的安全记录。

18 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

19 soften   

v.(使)变柔软；(使)变柔和

参考例句：

• Plastics will soften when exposed to heat.塑料适当加热就可以软化。
• This special cream will help to soften up our skin.这种特殊的护肤霜有助于使皮肤变得柔软。

20 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。