VOA常速英语2008年-Recent Fed Rate Cut Draws Mixed Reaction

By Carolyn Weaver¹
New York City
04 February 2008
 

The Federal Reserve Board cut short-term interest rates twice in January, most recently to three percent. The cuts are meant to encourage consumers by making credit more available, and to rally plunging² stock markets. But financial experts note that the risk of lowering interest rates is price inflation: the cost of living rises and the dollar buys less. A New York-based hedge fund owner and a professor of economics shared their views on the likely results of these moves.

Thomas Cooley, a professor of economics at New York University and dean of its business school, said he thought the Fed’s latest action was a step too far. “The concern is that as you continue to inject liquidity³ into the system, you unleash⁴ the inflation genie⁵ from the bottle,” he said in an interview. “And once you do, it's very hard, it's painful to control it again.”

Cooley supported the Fed’s earlier, emergency cut in January, however. That cut, he said, “brought interest rates down so that consumers who have to refinance or who are holding significant amounts of debt, if they can get a mortgage, the rates are fairly attractive.”  Cooley said the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound, and will recover from its current slump⁶ within the year.

Hedge fund owner Patrick D’Angelo, who formerly⁷ ran equity⁸ trading at Dresdner Bank, is more pessimistic, both for the markets and the economy as a whole. He says the U.S. is already in recession, or close to it, and the rate cuts aren’t helping⁹. “If the market's not rallying on the back of these massive rate cuts, what's going to cause the market to rally?” he asked. “The reality is that nothing will. This is nothing more than what you call a dead-cat bounce,” he said, referring to the brief rallies immediately following the rate cuts.

D'Angelo said that requirements for home loans have tightened¹⁰ so much now that even low interest rates cannot resolve the housing slump. He forecasts a long-term slowdown in the U.S. “It's not as dire¹¹ as a depression, but I think we'll be in a sustained recession for I would say, minimum three to five years,” he said. “And the reason I say that is that it's all going to be based on real estate, and the financial crisis that we're going through. Banks right now are not so much insolvent¹², but there are a lot of issues. Just because they're getting capital infusions¹³ doesn't mean their business is going to get better as a result.”

Cooley said he’s encouraged by the banks’ accounting¹⁴ for their losses so far, and by their new capital, but said, “It’s a precarious¹⁵ time.  I think there are more losses that we’re going to experience, that we’ll see further adjustments, further write-downs.” 

Both analysts¹⁶ said that Europe’s economy, and its big banks, could be the next hit. “Most of the U.S. financial institutions now are pretty well-capitalized,” Cooley said. “But we might see more problems emerging in Europe and other places which have relied more heavily, many of the European banks have relied more heavily on these off-balance sheet structures.”

”I personally think the U.S. is better positioned than most of the Western Europe countries,” said D’Angelo. “I think the big shoe to drop is actually going to be in Western Europe. Maybe the U.K. won't be as bad, but Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, all the European community is in dire straits right now. And I don't think people see this yet.”

If there is a recession in the United States, many developing countries will feel it, too, both analysts said, particularly the U.S.'s largest trading partner, China. India, on the other hand, could benefit, according to Thomas Cooley, if American companies outsource more jobs in response to a slowdown. 

1 weaver   

n.织布工；编织者

参考例句：

• She was a fast weaver and the cloth was very good.她织布织得很快，而且布的质量很好。
• The eager weaver did not notice my confusion.热心的纺织工人没有注意到我的狼狈相。

2 plunging   

adj.跳进的，突进的v.颠簸( plunge的现在分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• War broke out again, plunging the people into misery and suffering. 战祸复发，生灵涂炭。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He is plunging into an abyss of despair. 他陷入了绝望的深渊。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

4 unleash   

vt.发泄，发出；解带子放开

参考例句：

• They hope to create allies to unleash against diseases,pests,and invasive species.他们希望创造出一些新群体来对付疾病、害虫和一些有侵害性的物种。
• Changing water levels now at times unleash a miasma of disease from exposed sewage.如今，大坝不时地改变水位，从暴露的污水释放出了疾病瘴气。

5 genie   

n.妖怪，神怪

参考例句：

• Now the genie of his darkest and weakest side was speaking.他心灵中最阴暗最软弱的部分有一个精灵在说话。
• He had to turn to the Genie of the Ring for help.他不得不向戒指神求助。

6 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

7 formerly   

adv.从前，以前

参考例句：

• We now enjoy these comforts of which formerly we had only heard.我们现在享受到了过去只是听说过的那些舒适条件。
• This boat was formerly used on the rivers of China.这船从前航行在中国内河里。

8 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

9 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

10 tightened   

收紧( tighten的过去式和过去分词 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• The rope holding the boat suddenly tightened and broke. 系船的绳子突然绷断了。
• His index finger tightened on the trigger but then relaxed again. 他的食指扣住扳机，然后又松开了。

11 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

12 insolvent   

adj.破产的，无偿还能力的

参考例句：

• They lost orders and were insolvent within weeks.他们失去了订货，几周后就无法偿还债务。
• The bank was declared insolvent.银行被宣布破产。

13 infusions   

n.沏或泡成的浸液（如茶等）( infusion的名词复数 )；注入，注入物

参考例句：

• Intravenous infusions are also used to administer medications. 静脉输液也可作为一种给药方法。 来自辞典例句
• INTERPRETATION: GKI infusions significantly reduced plasma glucose concentrations and blood pressure. 结论：静脉滴注GKI显著降低血压和血糖浓度。 来自互联网

14 accounting   

n.会计，会计学，借贷对照表

参考例句：

• A job fell vacant in the accounting department.财会部出现了一个空缺。
• There's an accounting error in this entry.这笔账目里有差错。

15 precarious   

adj.不安定的，靠不住的；根据不足的

参考例句：

• Our financial situation had become precarious.我们的财务状况已变得不稳定了。
• He earned a precarious living as an artist.作为一个艺术家，他过得是朝不保夕的生活。

16 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。