VOA常速英语2008年-Uncertainty About Zimbabwe Election Grows

By Peta Thornycroft
Harare
18 February 2008

There is growing uncertainty¹ in Zimbabwe as politicians and analysts² realize that President Robert Mugabe is likely to face a run off after the March 29 elections. For VOA, Peta Thornycroft in Harare reports on the concerns.

Harare political scientist Eldred Masungurure says he believes the ruling party - Zanu PF - will try to bring off what he describes as "an electoral coup³" when the results of the presidential balloting⁴ emerge after the elections next month.

He and other independent political analysts do not believe it will be possible for Mr. Mugabe to win an absolute majority, as for the first time in his political career he faces not one, but two strong candidates.

Mr. Mugabe would, Masungurure says, have to do massive amounts of rigging to win a majority.

Many independent analysts say that Morgan Tsvangirai, founding president of the opposition⁵ Movement for Democratic Change, was cheated out of a narrow victory in the last presidential poll in 2002. Mr. Tsvangirai has considerable support in many urban areas, particularly in the capital, Harare.

One of the challengers President Mugabe is facing, Simba Makoni, had been a life long member of the ruling Zanu PF until he was expelled earlier this month, and has held senior positions in both the government and the party. Mr. Makoni says he has considerable support from many of his former colleagues in Zanu PF. Analysts say that means it will be more difficult for Mr. Mugabe's supporters to rig this election undetected.

Analysts point out that President Mugabe does not know which of the legislative⁶ candidates on the Zanu PF ticket will support Simba Makoni in the presidential poll.

Masungurure says it is hard to image that an already divided Zanu PF, having contested parliamentary, local government and senate elections on March 29, would be prepared or even able to stage a second round of presidential voting just 21 days later.

He said Zimbabweans should not be surprised if President Mugabe decides to break electoral laws if, as seems most likely, he does not win a clear majority.

He said Zimbabweans should look carefully at what happened in Kenya last month when President Mwai Kibaki quickly had himself sworn into power before any legal objections to the result could be launched by the opposition.

Patrick Chinamasa, a spokesman for Zanu PF who is also minister of justice, says a second round in the presidential poll will not be necessary as president Mugabe will win "resoundlingly." He described the opposition as "make shift" and he said Mr. Mugabe's opponents do not have a "platform or any cohesion⁷."

1 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 coup   

n.政变；突然而成功的行动

参考例句：

• The monarch was ousted by a military coup.那君主被军事政变者废黜了。
• That government was overthrown in a military coup three years ago.那个政府在3年前的军事政变中被推翻。

4 balloting   

v.（使）投票表决( ballot的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Clark took a commanding leading in the early balloting. 在最初投票时，克拉克遥遥领先。 来自辞典例句
• The balloting had stagnated, he couldn't win. 投票工作陷于停顿，他不能得胜。 来自辞典例句

5 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

6 legislative   

n.立法机构，立法权；adj.立法的，有立法权的

参考例句：

• Congress is the legislative branch of the U.S. government.国会是美国政府的立法部门。
• Today's hearing was just the first step in the legislative process.今天的听证会只是展开立法程序的第一步。

7 cohesion   

n.团结，凝结力

参考例句：

• I had to bring some cohesion into the company.我得使整个公司恢复凝聚力。
• The power of culture is deeply rooted in the vitality,creativity and cohesion of a nation. 文化的力量，深深熔铸在民族的生命力、创造力和凝聚力之中。