VOA常速英语2008年-Analysts, Exiled Zimbabweans, See No Hope in Lo

By Tendai Maphosa
London
18 February 2008

Next month Zimbabwe holds presidential, parliamentary and local elections - the first time all three polls have been held together. But as Tendai Maphosa reports from London, analysts¹ and exiles do not believe the poll will bring about the change the country needs for it to get out of the political and economic crisis it has been mired² in for years.

With the elections only a few weeks away there is already widespread pessimism³ that the elections will not bring about the change Zimbabwe so desperately⁴ needs. Among those expressing concern is the Britain's Africa Minister, Mark Malloch-Brown, who said the odds⁵ are against a free and fair election in Zimbabwe.

Alex Vines, who heads the Africa Program at the London-based think-tank, Chatham House, echoed Malloch-Brown's sentiments. Vines is well acquainted with Zimbabwe having worked there during the 1980s. He told VOA that while the voting itself may be free this time, Zimbabweans remain so affected⁶ by the violence and intimidation⁷ that marred⁸ past elections, the result of this election is unlikely to reflect the electorate⁹'s real choices.

"I think it [is going to] be difficult given what's been happening in recent years in Zimbabwe for a free and fair election; and the days themselves maybe more free but [given] the context of the elections [it] is very difficult to see how it will be an open, democratic and fear-free election," said Vines.

Since 2000, the contest has been between Mr. Mugabe's party and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) led by Morgan Tsvangirai. The MDC came close to winning the 2000 elections but has since been severely¹⁰ weakened by violence, arrests on trumped-up charges as well as internal bickering¹¹.

But earlier this month the 84-year-old Zimbabwean leader's former minister of finance, Simba Makoni, announced he will challenge the president as an independent. Until he announced his run for the presidency¹², Makoni was a senior member of the ruling Zanu-PF led by the president.

Vines notes Makoni's candidacy is an interesting development. But Dewa Mavhinga, a Zimbabwean working with the Zimbabwe Human Rights Forum¹³ in London, describes the excitement around Makoni's candidacy as overblown.

"The significance or otherwise of Makoni's candidature would have come in his ability to split Zanu-PF," said Mavhinga. "But if he fails to draw heavyweights from Zanu-PF then he is not significant at all. As he is an independent without a political party or a grassroots base, he is unlikely to unseat President Mugabe in the forthcoming poll."

The crisis in Zimbabwe has seen an estimated three million people - a quarter of the total population - leave the country for political and economic reasons. The most popular destinations have been neighboring South Africa, Botswana and the United Kingdom. Launching his election manifesto¹⁴ earlier this month, Makoni called on those abroad to come home and vote. Mavhinga said it is unlikely Zimbabweans outside southern Africa will heed¹⁵ the call.

"People, particularly in the diaspora, which would be made up of fairly middle class and informed people are very aware of the shortcomings of the electoral process and therefore would not put much faith in the process as to travel all the way from the UK, New Zealand the U.S. to go and vote," added Mavhinga.

There seems to be a consensus¹⁶ that the opposition¹⁷ has to participate in elections even though the electoral process is heavily tilted¹⁸ in favor of Mr. Mugabe's party. Chatham House's Alex Vines says it is important for the opposition to participate otherwise it becomes irrelevant¹⁹.

"They are not unique in this regard, this is a conundrum²⁰ that opposition parties more regularly have found themselves in Africa but the history of parties that completely boycott²¹ is actually more grim than those that actually try and contest and have some space for negotiation²² and relevance," he said.

Alex Magaisa is a Zimbabwean lecturer at the University of Kent. He told VOA that the upcoming elections are crucial for the country's recovery and he hopes that the prevailing²³ hardships may push the rural electorate, normally intimidated²⁴ into voting for Mr. Mugabe, into rejecting him this time. But, he points out that the splintered opposition might hand Mr. Mugabe victory.

"If Mugabe wins, which is quite likely, there will be no progress, Zimbabwe will continue to be a pariah²⁵ state and that is the biggest obstacle," said Magaisa. "The question that we are faced with is not whether we change the system of government or democracy in the country, I think it's whether we change the face of the national leadership."

Magaisa added a change in leadership would unlock a lot of possibilities for Zimbabwe in terms of economic recovery and the democratic process. Most analysts note that if past elections are anything to go by, Mr. Mugabe, who has been in power since independence in 1980, will be celebrating another victory. And exiled Zimbabweans, who have fled his regime, will still be waiting for the change that means they can go home.

1 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

2 mired   

abbr.microreciprocal degree 迈尔德（色温单位）v.深陷( mire的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The country was mired in recession. 这个国家陷入了经济衰退的困境。
• The most brilliant leadership can be mired in detail. 最有才干的领导也会陷于拘泥琐事的困境中。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

3 pessimism   

n.悲观者，悲观主义者，厌世者

参考例句：

• He displayed his usual pessimism.他流露出惯有的悲观。
• There is the note of pessimism in his writings.他的著作带有悲观色彩。

4 desperately   

adv.极度渴望地，绝望地，孤注一掷地

参考例句：

• He was desperately seeking a way to see her again.他正拼命想办法再见她一面。
• He longed desperately to be back at home.他非常渴望回家。

5 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

6 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

7 intimidation   

n.恐吓，威胁

参考例句：

• The Opposition alleged voter intimidation by the army.反对党声称投票者受到军方的恐吓。
• The gang silenced witnesses by intimidation.恶帮用恐吓的手段使得证人不敢说话。

8 marred   

adj. 被损毁, 污损的

参考例句：

• The game was marred by the behaviour of drunken fans. 喝醉了的球迷行为不轨，把比赛给搅了。
• Bad diction marred the effectiveness of his speech. 措词不当影响了他演说的效果。

9 electorate   

n.全体选民；选区

参考例句：

• The government was responsible to the electorate.政府对全体选民负责。
• He has the backing of almost a quarter of the electorate.他得到了几乎1/4选民的支持。

10 severely   

adv.严格地；严厉地；非常恶劣地

参考例句：

• He was severely criticized and removed from his post.他受到了严厉的批评并且被撤了职。
• He is severely put down for his careless work.他因工作上的粗心大意而受到了严厉的批评。

11 bickering   

v.争吵( bicker的现在分词 )；口角；（水等）作潺潺声；闪烁

参考例句：

• The children are always bickering about something or other. 孩子们有事没事总是在争吵。
• The two children were always bickering with each other over small matters. 这两个孩子总是为些小事斗嘴。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

12 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

13 forum   

n.论坛，讨论会

参考例句：

• They're holding a forum on new ways of teaching history.他们正在举行历史教学讨论会。
• The organisation would provide a forum where problems could be discussed.这个组织将提供一个可以讨论问题的平台。

14 manifesto   

n.宣言，声明

参考例句：

• I was involved in the preparation of Labour's manifesto.我参与了工党宣言的起草工作。
• His manifesto promised measures to protect them.他在宣言里保证要为他们采取保护措施。

15 heed   

v.注意，留意；n.注意，留心

参考例句：

• You must take heed of what he has told.你要注意他所告诉的事。
• For the first time he had to pay heed to his appearance.这是他第一次非得注意自己的外表不可了。

16 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

17 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

18 tilted   

v. 倾斜的

参考例句：

• Suddenly the boat tilted to one side. 小船突然倾向一侧。
• She tilted her chin at him defiantly. 她向他翘起下巴表示挑衅。

19 irrelevant   

adj.不恰当的，无关系的，不相干的

参考例句：

• That is completely irrelevant to the subject under discussion.这跟讨论的主题完全不相关。
• A question about arithmetic is irrelevant in a music lesson.在音乐课上，一个数学的问题是风马牛不相及的。

20 conundrum   

n.谜语；难题

参考例句：

• Let me give you some history about a conundrum.让我给你们一些关于谜题的历史。
• Scientists had focused on two explanations to solve this conundrum.科学家已锁定两种解释来解开这个难题。

21 boycott   

n./v.(联合)抵制，拒绝参与

参考例句：

• We put the production under a boycott.我们联合抵制该商品。
• The boycott lasts a year until the Victoria board permitsreturn.这个抗争持续了一年直到维多利亚教育局妥协为止。

22 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

23 prevailing   

adj.盛行的；占优势的；主要的

参考例句：

• She wears a fashionable hair style prevailing in the city.她的发型是这个城市流行的款式。
• This reflects attitudes and values prevailing in society.这反映了社会上盛行的态度和价值观。

24 intimidated   

v.恐吓；威胁adj.害怕的；受到威胁的

参考例句：

• We try to make sure children don't feel intimidated on their first day at school. 我们努力确保孩子们在上学的第一天不胆怯。
• The thief intimidated the boy into not telling the police. 这个贼恫吓那男孩使他不敢向警察报告。 来自《简明英汉词典》

25 pariah   

n.被社会抛弃者

参考例句：

• Shortly Tom came upon the juvenile pariah of the village.不一会儿，汤姆碰上了村里的少年弃儿。
• His landlady had treated him like a dangerous criminal,a pariah.房东太太对待他就像对待危险的罪犯、对待社会弃儿一样。