VOA常速英语2008年-Economists: Only New Leadership Can Revive Zimb

By Peta Thornycroft
14 March 2008

Zimbabwe's economy has been in crisis for nearly 10 years, but as election day approaches, its collapse¹ is gathering² pace, and no one is sure where it is heading.  Peta Thornycroft reports for VOA that economists⁴, industrialists⁵ and political analysts⁷ say the economy can only recover if there is new political leadership.

Zimbabwe used to be a breadbasket of Africa and was the second most industrialized nation on the continent. Now it depends on food aid and most of its industries have closed or are working only one or two days a week, a decline many analysts attribute to the failed leadership of President Robert Mugabe and his chaotic⁸ land reform program.

Mr. Mugabe blames Western nations, particularly Britain and the United States, for his country's economic woes⁹.

Economist³ John Robertson says the economy is so tattered¹⁰, it will require new political leadership of a special caliber¹¹ to launch a recovery process.

"They will have to do some amazingly difficult things, because most of ZANU-PF policies over the last decade or more have been policies designed to avoid pain, avoid the difficulties they should have accepted front on," he said.  "A new leader would have to fix those very quickly and [that] would be very much more painful than a politician trying to win popular support."

Robertson is alluding¹² to the coming election in which two candidates are challenging Mr. Mugabe to become the new president of Zimbabwe.
 
Simba Makoni, who was finance minister during the start of the land reform program, announced his candidacy just last month. He had to quit his job, or was forced to, when he advised his then boss, Robert Mugabe, to devalue the Zimbabwe dollar in 2002.

The other candidate is Morgan Tsvangirai, who started out as a unionist and led the recovery of the trade union movement in Zimbabwe before he became the founding present of the opposition¹³ Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in 2000.

Both men devote a lot of campaign time telling people how the economy needs to be reformed.  Economist Robertson says if either man wins the election he will be faced with a daunting¹⁴ task to inject life back into the economy.

At present it takes about 30 million Zimbabwe dollars to buy $1 U.S. on the black market, which is the only way to acquire foreign currency these days.  Robertson says Zimbabwe will not recover without international assistance, in particular to stabilize¹⁵ the Zimbabwe dollar, which loses value every day.

"We need to be treated as a disaster zone in desperate need of assistance much as if we had suffered an earthquake or a flood," he explained.  "If the country tried to recover with its own resources, it would take far, far too long, so the assistance we would need would be mainly to recapitalize the country to give people the resources needed to hit the ground running in every industry, especially in agriculture."

Robertson suggests that a new leader will have to respond to market forces and drastically cut the size of the civil service.  He also notes that companies or individuals in debt at the time of a transition to a new political dispensation would struggle to survive a stable Zimbabwe dollar and real interest rates.

A few people have made fortunes out of Zimbabwe's political and economic chaos¹⁶. With the plummeting¹⁷ value of the currency, the few who have cash invest it in the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, the only viable¹⁸ option to preserve or grow its value.  The economically perverse¹⁹ consequence of this is that in 2007 the ZSE was the best performing stock market in the world.

Stock exchange chief executive Emmanuel Munyukwi laments²⁰ the ever deepening crisis and says most companies still operating are only trying to survive until there is a new political dispensation.

"These companies are probably operating at less than 20 percent capacity, they have got assets which are real, the assets are there, so should circumstances change here the upside potential is huge," he noted²¹.

Munyukwi says the banks, for example, no longer operate as they did when Zimbabwe's economy was sound.  He says important traditional roles of private banks such as lending to investors²² and supporting agriculture have been taken over by the central bank.  He says commercial banks are now more like post office banks, dealing²³ only with individuals' accounts.

Munyukwi says he is an optimist²⁴ and believes that there could be a recovery reasonably fast if there is a new political leadership.

"When you look what's happening on the ground, most of our problems are political," he said.  "Once the political situation is resolved, it cascades²⁵ down. The executives running the companies in Zimbabwe are going through a very difficult time, even producing in some instances good results under very, very trying circumstances.  Now if the playing field is level - this is the potential I am talking about - people will start making money."

Both Makoni and Tsvngirai have said if they won the presidential election they would restore the ailing²⁶ banking²⁷ sector²⁸ and return the central bank to its traditional role.

However, President Mugabe is campaigning hard. He has apologized to people for their suffering mainly blaming the west for their plight²⁹, but saying that ZANU-PF has also made mistakes.  He is determined³⁰ to serve at least another five years, and many Zimbabweans wonder what will happen to the economy if he retains power.

Political analyst⁶ Brian Raftopoulos says if he does the West will not recognize the outcome of the election because, he says, already there are strong indications that the polls will be neither free nor fair.   Raftopoulos predicts the economy will shrink further and suffering will escalate³¹.

"Well if Mugabe wins it is simple, conditions will continue to deteriorate³²," he said.  "This would not be an election that is widely recognized, there will be no recovery, the Mugabe regime will be further isolated³³.  The economy will continue to deteriorate, with Mugabe and his regime having no policy to bring Zimbabwe out of the current crisis, and therefore, all-round the conditions will get worse."

At month's end Zimbabweans will vote for the first time in four simultaneous elections - for the president, legislators, senators and, for local government representatives.  Many are hoping that the election will indeed herald³⁴ a new economic beginning in their country.

1 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

2 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 industrialists   

n.工业家，实业家( industrialist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• This deal will offer major benefits to industrialists and investors. 这笔交易将会让实业家和投资者受益匪浅。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The government has set up a committee of industrialists and academics to advise it. 政府已成立了一个实业家和学者的委员会来为其提供建议。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

7 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

8 chaotic   

adj.混沌的，一片混乱的，一团糟的

参考例句：

• Things have been getting chaotic in the office recently.最近办公室的情况越来越乱了。
• The traffic in the city was chaotic.这城市的交通糟透了。

9 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

10 tattered   

adj.破旧的，衣衫破的

参考例句：

• Her tattered clothes in no way detracted from her beauty.她的破衣烂衫丝毫没有影响她的美貌。
• Their tattered clothing and broken furniture indicated their poverty.他们褴褛的衣服和破烂的家具显出他们的贫穷。

11 caliber   

n.能力；水准

参考例句：

• They ought to win with players of such high caliber.他们选手的能力这样高,应该获胜。
• We are always trying to improve the caliber of our schools.我们一直在想方设法提高我们学校的水平。

12 alluding   

提及，暗指( allude的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• He didn't mention your name but I was sure he was alluding to you. 他没提你的名字，但是我确信他是暗指你的。
• But in fact I was alluding to my physical deficiencies. 可我实在是为自己的容貌寒心。

13 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

14 daunting   

adj.使人畏缩的

参考例句：

• They were faced with the daunting task of restoring the house.他们面临着修复房子的艰巨任务。
• Starting a new job can be a daunting prospect.开始一项新工作有时会让人望而却步。

15 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

16 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

17 plummeting   

v.垂直落下，骤然跌落( plummet的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Prices are rising, falling, going up, going down, shooting up, plummeting, etc. 物价在上涨、下跌、上升、下落、猛然上涨、骤然下跌等。 来自辞典例句
• The enemy plane went plummeting into the sea. 敌机直直掉进海里。 来自辞典例句

18 viable   

adj.可行的，切实可行的，能活下去的

参考例句：

• The scheme is economically viable.这个计划从经济效益来看是可行的。
• The economy of the country is not viable.这个国家经济是难以维持的。

19 perverse   

adj.刚愎的；坚持错误的，行为反常的

参考例句：

• It would be perverse to stop this healthy trend.阻止这种健康发展的趋势是没有道理的。
• She gets a perverse satisfaction from making other people embarrassed.她有一种不正常的心态，以使别人难堪来取乐。

20 laments   

n.悲恸，哀歌，挽歌( lament的名词复数 )v.（为…）哀悼，痛哭，悲伤( lament的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• In the poem he laments the destruction of the countryside. 在那首诗里他对乡村遭到的破坏流露出悲哀。
• In this book he laments the slight interest shown in his writings. 在该书中他慨叹人们对他的著作兴趣微弱。 来自辞典例句

21 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

22 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

23 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

24 optimist   

n.乐观的人，乐观主义者

参考例句：

• We are optimist and realist.我们是乐观主义者，又是现实主义者。
• Peter,ever the optimist,said things were bound to improve.一向乐观的皮特说，事情必定是会好转的。

25 cascades   

倾泻( cascade的名词复数 )； 小瀑布（尤指一连串瀑布中的一支）； 瀑布状物； 倾泻（或涌出）的东西

参考例句：

• The river fell in a series of cascades down towards the lake. 河形成阶梯状瀑布泻入湖中。
• Turning into the sun, he began the long, winding drive through the Cascades. 现在他朝着太阳驶去，开始了穿越喀斯喀特山脉的漫长而曲折的路程。 来自英汉文学 - 廊桥遗梦

26 ailing   

v.生病

参考例句：

• They discussed the problems ailing the steel industry. 他们讨论了困扰钢铁工业的问题。
• She looked after her ailing father. 她照顾有病的父亲。

27 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

28 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

29 plight   

n.困境，境况，誓约，艰难；vt.宣誓，保证，约定

参考例句：

• The leader was much concerned over the plight of the refugees.那位领袖对难民的困境很担忧。
• She was in a most helpless plight.她真不知如何是好。

30 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

31 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

32 deteriorate   

v.变坏；恶化；退化

参考例句：

• Do you think relations between China and Japan will continue to deteriorate?你认为中日关系会继续恶化吗？
• He held that this would only cause the situation to deteriorate further.他认为，这只会使局势更加恶化。

33 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。

34 herald   

vt.预示...的来临，预告，宣布，欢迎

参考例句：

• In England, the cuckoo is the herald of spring.在英国杜鹃鸟是报春的使者。
• Dawn is the herald of day.曙光是白昼的先驱。