VOA常速英语2008年-Iraq War at Crucial Junction on Fifth Anniversa

By Al Pessin
Pentagon
17 March 2008

As the Iraq war passes its fifth anniversary this week, the U.S. military is bracing¹ for a transition that will reduce its combat power in Iraq by more than 20 percent by July, as the surge forces President Bush deployed² last year end their tours of duty. The question for officials, military officers and analysts³ is whether the security gains the surge brought can be sustained with fewer U.S. troops in Iraq in the coming months, and perhaps even fewer as the year goes on. VOA's Al Pessin reports from the Pentagon.

In January of last year the situation in Iraq was spiraling out of control. The main subject of debate was whether the country was in a civil war, or only verging⁴ on civil war. A growing number of experts and members of Congress were calling for a U.S. withdrawal⁵. But President Bush went the other way.

"I've committed more than 20,000 additional American troops to Iraq," he said. "The vast majority of them - five brigades - will be deployed to Baghdad."

It was a huge gamble, in both military and political terms. And it was accompanied by a change in tactics to a new, untested counterinsurgency strategy.

Now, more than a year later, the surge is ending with the lowest level of violence in years, the lowest U.S. casualty rates in years, progress on Iraqi political issues that had been stalled for years and more involvement by Iraqi security forces than at any time since the fall of Saddam Hussein.

Longtime skeptic⁷ of Bush administration Iraq policy Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies visited Iraq last month and found progress has been made. But he says it has been a long time coming.

"We have certainly learned a great deal about nation building, although we're scarcely well prepared for it," he said. "We understand the consequences of many of our early mistakes. And we have a far more sophisticated force to fight counterinsurgency than we did when we began. But it has taken us half a decade to get to the position where we really are ready to fight this kind of war."

Analysts say those 'early mistakes' include not having enough coalition⁸ troops to guarantee security and disbanding the Iraqi military, which further reduced the number of security forces and also provided men and weapons for the insurgency⁶. Cordesman says it has been a long road back for the Iraqi security forces.

"When you go to Iraq you discover goals we set for 2007 probably won't be met until 2009 in force quality," he said. "That still is remarkable⁹ progress for creating a force from so low a base."

But Cordesman and other analysts note that the security improvements during the last year did not come only from the U.S. surge and improvements in the Iraqi security forces. They note that the leader of the main Shi'ite militia¹⁰ declared a ceasefire and the main Sunni insurgent¹¹ group, al-Qaida in Iraq, alienated¹² many Iraqis with its extreme Islamist views and its indiscriminate violence.

One result was a shift by Sunni tribes in western Iraq from support for the insurgents¹³ to support for the government and the coalition, and similar moves by other tribes and local groups across the country. More than 90,000 Iraqis have joined local security forces working with the Iraqi police.

Analysts have been saying for months that Iraqi leaders must do more to take advantage of the improved security and build long-term stability. Among them is another recent visitor to Iraq, Michele Flournoy of the Center for a New American Security.

"The most disturbing thing that I observed while there is that I really didn't sense any sense of urgency on the part of the central government stepping into this breach¹⁴, trying to take advantage of the security situation," she said. "The second most disturbing thing I saw was that I didn't feel that there was a clear political strategy on our part, on the part of the U.S., to push the Iraqis to take advantage of this opportunity."

Flournoy says the coming months are a key period for political progress in Iraq on such pending¹⁵ issues as revenue sharing between the central government and the provinces and planning for local elections. U.S. officials say there has been what they call "bottom up" reconciliation¹⁶, rather than the "top down" type of legislated¹⁷ reconciliation they had originally wanted. Now, experts say, the parliament must follow through on what individuals, tribes and provinces have done. If that happens, Flournoy says, military commanders tell her the end of the surge should not affect the security situation, and further drawdowns of U.S. and coalition forces could be possible.

"The next president could inherit a situation that would allow a substantial drawdown without having Iraq backslide into civil war," she said. "But that means that we have to play our cards very prudently¹⁸ and very well between now and then, and I'm not reassured¹⁹ that we're doing that."

By the sixth anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, there will be a new government in Washington. Analysts and officials say whether that government will be able to continue to reduce the U.S. military role in Iraq without causing instability there will very much depend on whether the Bush administration, in its final months, can continue to build the Iraqi security forces and can successfully push the Iraqi government toward the kind of broad reconciliation that has so far been lacking in spite of the security gains.

1 bracing   

adj.令人振奋的

参考例句：

• The country is bracing itself for the threatened enemy invasion. 这个国家正准备奋起抵抗敌人的入侵威胁。
• The atmosphere in the new government was bracing. 新政府的气氛是令人振奋的。

2 deployed   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Tanks have been deployed all along the front line. 沿整个前线已部署了坦克。
• The artillery was deployed to bear on the fort. 火炮是对着那个碉堡部署的。

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 verging   

接近，逼近（verge的现在分词形式）

参考例句：

• He vowed understanding, verging on sympathy, for our approach. 他宣称对我们提出的做法很理解，而且近乎同情。
• He's verging on 80 now and needs constant attention. 他已近80岁，需要侍候左右。

5 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

6 insurgency   

n.起义；暴动；叛变

参考例句：

• And as in China, unrest and even insurgency are widespread. 而在中国，动乱甚至暴乱都普遍存在。 来自互联网
• Dr Zyphur is part an insurgency against this idea. 塞弗博士是这一观点逆流的一部分。 来自互联网

7 skeptic   

n.怀疑者，怀疑论者，无神论者

参考例句：

• She is a skeptic about the dangers of global warming.她是全球变暖危险的怀疑论者。
• How am I going to convince this skeptic that she should attention to my research?我将如何使怀疑论者确信她应该关注我的研究呢？

8 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

9 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

10 militia   

n.民兵，民兵组织

参考例句：

• First came the PLA men,then the people's militia.人民解放军走在前面，其次是民兵。
• There's a building guarded by the local militia at the corner of the street.街道拐角处有一幢由当地民兵团守卫的大楼。

11 insurgent   

adj.叛乱的，起事的；n.叛乱分子

参考例句：

• Faruk says they are threatened both by insurgent and government forces.法鲁克说，他们受到暴乱分子和政府军队的双重威胁。
• The insurgent mob assembled at the gate of the city park.叛变的暴徒聚在市立公园的门口。

12 alienated   

adj.感到孤独的，不合群的v.使疏远( alienate的过去式和过去分词 )；使不友好；转让；让渡（财产等）

参考例句：

• His comments have alienated a lot of young voters. 他的言论使许多年轻选民离他而去。
• The Prime Minister's policy alienated many of her followers. 首相的政策使很多拥护她的人疏远了她。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 insurgents   

n.起义，暴动，造反( insurgent的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The regular troops of Baden joined the insurgents. 巴登的正规军参加到起义军方面来了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Against the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, these problems are manageable. 要对付塔利班与伊拉克叛乱分子，这些问题还是可以把握住的。 来自互联网

14 breach   

n.违反，不履行；破裂；vt.冲破，攻破

参考例句：

• We won't have any breach of discipline.我们不允许任何破坏纪律的现象。
• He was sued for breach of contract.他因不履行合同而被起诉。

15 pending   

prep.直到，等待…期间；adj.待定的；迫近的

参考例句：

• The lawsuit is still pending in the state court.这案子仍在州法庭等待定夺。
• He knew my examination was pending.他知道我就要考试了。

16 reconciliation   

n.和解，和谐，一致

参考例句：

• He was taken up with the reconciliation of husband and wife.他忙于做夫妻间的调解工作。
• Their handshake appeared to be a gesture of reconciliation.他们的握手似乎是和解的表示。

17 legislated   

v.立法，制定法律( legislate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Congress has legislated a new minimum wage for workers. 国会制定了一项新的关于工人最低工资的法律。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Most member countries have already legislated against excessive overtime. 大多数成员国均已立法禁止超时加班。 来自辞典例句

18 prudently   

adv. 谨慎地，慎重地

参考例句：

• He prudently pursued his plan. 他谨慎地实行他那计划。
• They had prudently withdrawn as soon as the van had got fairly under way. 他们在蓬车安全上路后立即谨慎地离去了。

19 reassured   

adj.使消除疑虑的；使放心的v.再保证，恢复信心( reassure的过去式和过去分词)

参考例句：

• The captain's confidence during the storm reassured the passengers. 在风暴中船长的信念使旅客们恢复了信心。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The doctor reassured the old lady. 医生叫那位老妇人放心。 来自《简明英汉词典》