VOA常速英语2008年-Musharraf's Future in Hands of New Pakistani Go

By Gary Thomas
Washington
26 March 2008

The advent¹ of a new elected civilian² government in Pakistan effectively ends the military rule of Pervez Musharraf. However, Mr. Musharraf still remains³ president, at least for now.  As VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports, the new coalition⁴ government must grapple with what to do about Mr. Musharraf and his policies, particularly cooperation with the United States in counterterrorism.

The political drama that began one year ago with President Musharraf's dismissal of the country's chief justice has entered a new act.  But will Mr. Musharraf leave the stage, or might he be forced into accepting a supporting role rather than the leading one?

The conventional wisdom is that Mr. Musharraf will, sooner or later, exit.  He is politically isolated⁵, quite unpopular according to opinion polls and the recent electoral outcome, and has now ceded⁶ power to the new elected coalition government headed by Yousuf Raza Gilani.

Mr. Musharraf could be impeached⁷ if the ruling coalition can rustle⁸ up the two-thirds parliamentary majority necessary to do so.  The newly reinstated judges also might be prevailed upon to rule his re-election last year as invalid⁹, thus bypassing impeachment¹⁰.

But some analysts¹¹ believe that he might be kept around, at least in the short term.

The Pakistan Peoples Party, led by Asif Zardari, and the PML-N of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif have a long history of animosity and were united only by their shared antipathy¹² to Mr. Musharraf. 

Teresita Schaffer, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia, says Mr. Musharraf could survive at least for the short term, but with greatly reduced powers, since that shared distaste for him is the main glue holding the coalition together.

"In my judgment¹³, as long as he is president the coalition will stay together or squabbles will be ended by them coming together," she said.  "I'm not sure that that's forever, but for a good chunk¹⁴ of time, anyway. On the other hand, I think that Zardari and Nawaz actually do agree that they want to reduce his powers."

The president's key weapon is the power to dismiss the government, and the new government wants, at the very least, to take away that power.

Analysts also point out that getting rid of Mr. Musharraf would likely spark a bitter political fight between the coalition partners about who would replace him.

Larry Goodson, a professor of Middle East affairs and national security studies at the U.S. Army War College, says the key question is whether Mr. Musharraf would accept a greatly diminished role.

"Keeping him in place is better for the opposition¹⁵.  But the danger is going to be, is stroking his ego¹⁶ enough, his vanity enough - if I can put it in somewhat a negative way about him - so that he will play along in this lesser¹⁷ role," he noted¹⁸.  "We've seen it many times in acting¹⁹, right? [For example take] the great actor or actress who ages into the lesser character roles. Some can do it and some can't.  So let's see if Musharraf can do it."

The Gilani government has also indicated that it wants to chart a different course from Mr. Musharraf's on the role of the United States in battling terrorism in Pakistan.  On the day Mr. Gilani was sworn in, two top-ranking U.S. diplomats²⁰ showed up in Islamabad to meet with officials.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the United States just wants to assess the new government's attitude to U.S.-Pakistani relations.

"It's an opportunity to take stock of where Pakistan is now and also to look forward in terms of where Pakistan is going and where the Pakistan-United States relationship is going," he explained.

Editorial opinion in Pakistani media sharply criticized the timing²¹ of such a visit.  Teresita Schaffer says the visit sent a wrong signal to Pakistanis.

"Pakistanis know that the issue of domestic militancy²² is very much their war.  They don't need us to convince them of that," she said.  "The argument is over what is an effective policy. Unfortunately for us, this argument is influenced by a sense that is very widespread in Pakistan that working with the U.S. aggravated²³ this problem. That in turn led to a political necessity for the new government to show that it is doing something different from the old government."

In a telephone conversation, Prime Minister Gilani told President Bush that he favors a combined political and economic development approach to fighting Islamic militancy in the tribal²⁴ areas.  Schaffer says U.S. policymakers are nervous about any approach that eliminates the military element.

1 advent   

n.(重要事件等的)到来，来临

参考例句：

• Swallows come by groups at the advent of spring. 春天来临时燕子成群飞来。
• The advent of the Euro will redefine Europe.欧元的出现将重新定义欧洲。

2 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

3 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

4 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

5 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。

6 ceded   

v.让给，割让，放弃( cede的过去式 )

参考例句：

• Cuba was ceded by Spain to the US in 1898. 古巴在1898年被西班牙割让给美国。
• A third of the territory was ceded to France. 领土的三分之一割让给了法国。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 impeached   

v.控告（某人）犯罪( impeach的过去式和过去分词 )；弹劾；对（某事物）怀疑；提出异议

参考例句：

• Elected officials can be impeached. 经过选举产生的官员可以被弹劾。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The judge was impeached for taking a bribe. 这个法官被检举接受贿赂。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

8 rustle   

v.沙沙作响；偷盗(牛、马等)；n.沙沙声声

参考例句：

• She heard a rustle in the bushes.她听到灌木丛中一阵沙沙声。
• He heard a rustle of leaves in the breeze.他听到树叶在微风中发出的沙沙声。

9 invalid   

n.病人，伤残人；adj.有病的，伤残的；无效的

参考例句：

• He will visit an invalid.他将要去看望一个病人。
• A passport that is out of date is invalid.护照过期是无效的。

10 impeachment   

n.弹劾；控告；怀疑

参考例句：

• Impeachment is considered a drastic measure in the United States.在美国，弹劾被视为一种非常激烈的措施。
• The verdict resulting from his impeachment destroyed his political career.他遭弹劾后得到的判决毁了他的政治生涯。

11 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

12 antipathy   

n.憎恶；反感，引起反感的人或事物

参考例句：

• I feel an antipathy against their behaviour.我对他们的行为很反感。
• Some people have an antipathy to cats.有的人讨厌猫。

13 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

14 chunk   

n.厚片，大块，相当大的部分（数量）

参考例句：

• They had to be careful of floating chunks of ice.他们必须当心大块浮冰。
• The company owns a chunk of farmland near Gatwick Airport.该公司拥有盖特威克机场周边的大片农田。

15 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

16 ego   

n.自我，自己，自尊

参考例句：

• He is absolute ego in all thing.在所有的事情上他都绝对自我。
• She has been on an ego trip since she sang on television.她上电视台唱过歌之后就一直自吹自擂。

17 lesser   

adj.次要的，较小的；adv.较小地，较少地

参考例句：

• Kept some of the lesser players out.不让那些次要的球员参加联赛。
• She has also been affected,but to a lesser degree.她也受到波及，但程度较轻。

18 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

19 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

20 diplomats   

n.外交官( diplomat的名词复数 )；有手腕的人，善于交际的人

参考例句：

• These events led to the expulsion of senior diplomats from the country. 这些事件导致一些高级外交官被驱逐出境。
• The court has no jurisdiction over foreign diplomats living in this country. 法院对驻本国的外交官无裁判权。 来自《简明英汉词典》

21 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

22 militancy   

n.warlike behavior or tendency

参考例句：

• Full of militancy and revolutionary ardour, the people of all nationalities in the country are working hard for the realization of the four modernizations. 全国各族人民意气风发， 斗志昂扬，为实现四个现代化而奋战。
• The seniority system is another factor that leads to union militancy. 排资论辈制度也是导致工会好斗争的另一因素。

23 aggravated   

使恶化( aggravate的过去式和过去分词 )； 使更严重； 激怒； 使恼火

参考例句：

• If he aggravated me any more I shall hit him. 假如他再激怒我，我就要揍他。
• Far from relieving my cough, the medicine aggravated it. 这药非但不镇咳，反而使我咳嗽得更厉害。

24 tribal   

adj.部族的，种族的

参考例句：

• He became skilled in several tribal lingoes.他精通几种部族的语言。
• The country was torn apart by fierce tribal hostilities.那个国家被部落间的激烈冲突弄得四分五裂。