VOA标准英语2008年-Chinese Researchers Say China's Labor Supply Dr

Chinese reports say the country's vast pool of cheap labor¹ is getting smaller, which could hurt an economy that is heavily dependent on labor-intensive manufacturing. Claudia Blume in Hong Kong has more.
　
Group of newly-arrived migrant workers carry belongings² past group of soldiers near Beijing's Tiananmen Square (File)

China's vast supply of low-cost labor has been the backbone³ of its rapid economic expansion in the past three decades. But according to a leading research organization, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the days of a limitless oversupply⁴ of workers are coming to an end.

The academy's research shows that China's rural labor surplus, the source of migrant workers for the country's factories, is about 50 million people - far less than the previously⁵ estimated 150 to 200 million.

Jonathan Unger, director of the Contemporary China Center at the Australian National University, says fewer rural residents are willing to leave their farms today. This is partly because there are more employment opportunities in rural areas, and because agricultural prices have gone up.

"And at the same time taxes in the countryside, fees in the countryside have gone down because of new sets of government policies," he explained. "And so people are not desperately⁶ forced in the way they were five, six years ago to leave the farm in order to earn enough money for their families, in order to help support their families at home."

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences says another reason for the reduced labor pool is the country's population policy, which allows city dwellers⁷ to have just one child, and farmers up to two if the first one is a girl.

A United Nations study predicts that China's workforce⁸ will peak in 2015 and then gradually drop. Some of China's major manufacturing areas, such as Guangdong province, already face labor shortages.

Some economists¹⁰ think these shortages are, at least for now, a regional rather than a national problem. Sun Mingchun, an economist⁹ with investment bank Lehman Brothers in Hong Kong, points out that there are still millions of people in China who can not find work.

"The government has a goal of creating like nine million, ten million jobs per year," Sun said. "But if you look at the new increase last year - the increase was only six million. There are still three, four million people who can't find a job."

The average monthly income of rural migrant workers has increased significantly in the past few years, going up 11-and-a-half percent in 2006 and 20 percent in 2007. Sun and Unger say the main reason wages have gone up is inflation, which means spending power has not risen as much.

Rising labor costs and a shortage of workers in some areas are part of the reason that some foreign manufacturers have started to move production to other, cheaper parts of Asia, for example neighboring Vietnam.

　

 

1 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

2 belongings   

n.私人物品，私人财物

参考例句：

• I put a few personal belongings in a bag.我把几件私人物品装进包中。
• Your personal belongings are not dutiable.个人物品不用纳税。

3 backbone   

n.脊骨，脊柱，骨干；刚毅，骨气

参考例句：

• The Chinese people have backbone.中国人民有骨气。
• The backbone is an articulate structure.脊椎骨是一种关节相连的结构。

4 oversupply   

n.供应过量；v.过度供给

参考例句：

• The market softened because of oversupply.市场因供过于求而疲软。
• Overexpansion of tea fields has led to oversupply.茶园过度扩张，使得市场上逐渐供过于求。

5 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

6 desperately   

adv.极度渴望地，绝望地，孤注一掷地

参考例句：

• He was desperately seeking a way to see her again.他正拼命想办法再见她一面。
• He longed desperately to be back at home.他非常渴望回家。

7 dwellers   

n.居民，居住者( dweller的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City dwellers think country folk have provincial attitudes. 城里人以为乡下人思想迂腐。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They have transformed themselves into permanent city dwellers. 他们已成为永久的城市居民。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

9 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

10 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》