VOA标准英语2008年-What 's Motivating Shift in US-Iran Policy?

Iran and the United States have been going through what might be described as diplomatic mood swings. One minute, it seems as if the two countries are on the brink¹ of war. The next, there seem to be small but perceptible policy shifts towards each other. As VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports, complex political calculations are being made in the corridors of power in Tehran and Washington.

After insisting it would never take part in negotiations² with Iran, the Bush administration recently sent a senior envoy³ to sit in on international talks with Iranian officials in Geneva on the nuclear issue. And a new offer of incentives⁴ aimed at getting Iran to halt uranium enrichment was put on the table by the United States and the European Union.

In an interview with NBC television, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad cautiously welcomed what he described as "new behavior" on the part of U.S. officials. He said if the new U.S. attitude continues to change, Iran would respond positively⁵.

The Iranian president spoke⁶ to NBC's Brian Williams in Tehran.

"My question is, is such behavior rooted in a new approach - in other words, mutual⁷ respect, mutual cooperation, and justice," Ahmadinejad asked. "Or is this approach a continuation of the confrontation⁸ with the Iranian people, but in a new guise⁹?"

But the bottom line is that nuclear negotiations remain in limbo¹⁰. Iran has not responded to the new P5-Plus One offer, and Iran continues to enrich uranium, using what it said Saturday is a marked increase in the number of uranium centrifuges.

Would Obama Presidency¹¹ Affect US-Iran Relations?

An Iran affairs analyst¹² at the non-partisan Congressional Research Service, Ken¹³ Katzman, says the Iranian leadership is essentially¹⁴ stalling for time until a new U.S. president is elected.

"The Iranians are betting that Mr. Obama is going to win the election and are forecasting that there will be a much softer line from the United States after that," Katzman said. "In that respect I think they are trying, the Iranians are trying, to stave off any U.S. or Israeli military action or even another sanctions resolution."

Katzman adds that the softer tone of Iran's firebrand president reflects a wider debate in Iranian power circles.

"He is trying to adjust his demeanor¹⁵ to fit with some shifting opinion in Tehran. And I do think there is shifting opinion in Tehran," he added. "But I think that Ahmadinejad has successfully prevailed on the Supreme¹⁶ Leader and on the system for now not to make any dramatic concessions¹⁷. What makes me somewhat optimistic about what is going is that there is a battle at all inside Iran as to what to do."

What's Behind Shift in Bush Administration Stance?

The shift in the U.S. stance by the Bush administration is both puzzling and disappointing to American neoconservatives like former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton, who scoffs¹⁸ at the idea of an internal policy debate in Tehran on the nuclear issue.

"The State Department search for Iranian moderates is comparable to Captain Ahab's search for the great white whale," Bolton said. "It is an obsession¹⁹ within the State Department. There are obviously differences within the leadership cast inside Iran. But we have never detected any differences over the fundamental strategic objective of getting a deliverable nuclear weapon."

In his interview, President Ahmadinejad reiterated²⁰ that Iran harbors no ambitions to build nuclear weapons.

Is Deal With Iran in The Works?

Some analysts²¹ think a deal with Iran may already be in the works.

Reva Bhalla of Stratfor, a private intelligence firm, believes there is some similarity to 1980 and 1981, when negotiations to free American hostages at the Tehran Embassy were conducted under President Jimmy Carter, but the Iranians would not release them until Ronald Reagan was sworn in.

"They still at the same time deprived Carter of that foreign policy victory," Stratfor noted²². "Instead, it went to Reagan. But the work was all done under Carter. So it could be the same kind of calculation where the Iranians may not want to give that foreign policy [victory] to the Bush administration, but are putting everything in place right now for that deal to happen. Because they really cannot take too many risks, not knowing what the next administration might bring."

But other analysts say more and tougher economic sanctions will still have to be levied²³ on Iran before there are significant concessions from Tehran.

 

1 brink   

n.(悬崖、河流等的)边缘，边沿

参考例句：

• The tree grew on the brink of the cliff.那棵树生长在峭壁的边缘。
• The two countries were poised on the brink of war.这两个国家处于交战的边缘。

2 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

3 envoy   

n.使节，使者，代表，公使

参考例句：

• Their envoy showed no sign of responding to our proposals.他们的代表对我方的提议毫无回应的迹象。
• The government has not yet appointed an envoy to the area.政府尚未向这一地区派过外交官。

4 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

5 positively   

adv.明确地，断然，坚决地；实在，确实

参考例句：

• She was positively glowing with happiness.她满脸幸福。
• The weather was positively poisonous.这天气着实讨厌。

6 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

7 mutual   

adj.相互的，彼此的；共同的，共有的

参考例句：

• We must pull together for mutual interest.我们必须为相互的利益而通力合作。
• Mutual interests tied us together.相互的利害关系把我们联系在一起。

8 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

9 guise   

n.外表，伪装的姿态

参考例句：

• They got into the school in the guise of inspectors.他们假装成视察员进了学校。
• The thief came into the house under the guise of a repairman.那小偷扮成个修理匠进了屋子。

10 limbo   

n.地狱的边缘；监狱

参考例句：

• His life seemed stuck in limbo and he could not go forward and he could not go back.他的生活好像陷入了不知所措的境地，进退两难。
• I didn't know whether my family was alive or dead.I felt as if I was in limbo.我不知道家人是生是死，感觉自己茫然无措。

11 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

12 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

13 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

14 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

15 demeanor   

n.行为；风度

参考例句：

• She is quiet in her demeanor.她举止文静。
• The old soldier never lost his military demeanor.那个老军人从来没有失去军人风度。

16 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

17 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

18 scoffs   

嘲笑，嘲弄( scoff的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• [ Scoffs ] Why should a young girl like that love an old fart like me? 为什么一个那样的年轻女孩应该喜欢我这样的老家伙？
• The noise of the moment scoffs at the music of the Eternal. 瞬刻的喧声，讥笑着永恒的音乐。

19 obsession   

n.困扰，无法摆脱的思想(或情感)

参考例句：

• I was suffering from obsession that my career would be ended.那时的我陷入了我的事业有可能就此终止的困扰当中。
• She would try to forget her obsession with Christopher.她会努力忘记对克里斯托弗的迷恋。

20 reiterated   

反复地说，重申( reiterate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• "Well, I want to know about it,'she reiterated. “嗯，我一定要知道你的休假日期，"她重复说。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹
• Some twenty-two years later President Polk reiterated and elaborated upon these principles. 大约二十二年之后，波尔克总统重申这些原则并且刻意阐释一番。

21 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

22 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

23 levied   

征（兵）( levy的过去式和过去分词 )； 索取； 发动（战争）； 征税

参考例句：

• Taxes should be levied more on the rich than on the poor. 向富人征收的税应该比穷人的多。
• Heavy fines were levied on motoring offenders. 违规驾车者会遭到重罚。