VOA标准英语2008年-Experts Say Economic Downturn Could Spread to D

A new report warns the gloomy economic outlook for rich nations could spread and halt the recent boom in developing countries, if commodity prices plunge¹. The annual Trade and Development Report by the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development or UNCTAD, sees a great deal of uncertainly and instability in international financial markets. Lisa Schlein reports for VOA from the launch of the report in Geneva.
　
UNCTAD Secretary-General, Supachai Panitchpakdi, holds a copy of the Trade and Development Report 2008 during a news conference in Geneva, Switzerland, 02 Sept. 2008

By the middle of this year, the report notes some economies had gone into recession while others were on the brink² of recession. UNCTAD Secretary-General, Supachai Panitchpakdi, says this depressing state of affairs comes after four years of relatively³ strong growth.

He says a combination of factors have conspired⁴ to create this unfortunate economic downturn.

"First, it is a slowdown from the global fall-down from the financial crisis in the U.S. Second, the bursting of housing bubbles in the U.S. and in other large economies. Third, soaring commodity prices," Supachai said. "Fourth, increasingly restrictive monetary⁵ policies in a number of countries and fifth, stock market volatility⁶."
All these factors, says Supachai, have had a hand in squelching⁷ economic growth.

UNCTAD expects world output to grow by around three percent this year. That is almost one percentage point less than in 2007. In the developed countries, the report says GDP growth is likely to be around one-and-one half percent.

Supachai says the short-term outlook is better for the developing world, where growth could exceed six percent. This, as the result of domestic demand in some countries and because of commodity price hikes.

He points to the Sub-Saharan economy as a particular bright spot.

"This year, it is probably the only region that will be seeing a rising rate of economic growth which might reach seven percent," Supachai said. "This is probably one of the largest growth rates ever seen in the Sub-Saharan economies. But, the sad fact is that this is mainly attributable to the effects of the income from commodity exports, mainly oil."

Supachai cautions this healthy growth in Africa is unlikely to do much to reduce poverty. He says little of the income from oil, the mining and extractive sectors⁸ trickle⁹ down to the poor.

And, he warns fallout from the recession in rich countries and overly restrictive monetary policies in countries with high inflation could lead to a further deceleration of growth in developing nations.

UNCTAD economists¹⁰ say greater diversification¹¹ and industrial development is the best long-term strategy for reducing vulnerability to commodity price shocks.

They find speculative¹² swings in the commodity market pose a real threat to the global economy, as has been shown in the wild fluctuation¹³ in the price of oil. They recommend stricter regulations in the system of global finance to better control speculative movements.

 

1 plunge   

v.跳入，(使)投入，(使)陷入；猛冲

参考例句：

• Test pool's water temperature before you plunge in.在你跳入之前你应该测试水温。
• That would plunge them in the broil of the two countries.那将会使他们陷入这两国的争斗之中。

2 brink   

n.(悬崖、河流等的)边缘，边沿

参考例句：

• The tree grew on the brink of the cliff.那棵树生长在峭壁的边缘。
• The two countries were poised on the brink of war.这两个国家处于交战的边缘。

3 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

4 conspired   

密谋( conspire的过去式和过去分词 )； 搞阴谋； （事件等）巧合； 共同导致

参考例句：

• They conspired to bring about the meeting of the two people. 他们共同促成了两人的会面。
• Bad weather and car trouble conspired to ruin our vacation. 恶劣的气候连同汽车故障断送了我们的假日。

5 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

6 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

7 squelching   

v.发吧唧声，发扑哧声( squelch的现在分词 )；制止；压制；遏制

参考例句：

• I could hear his broken shoes squelching in the water. 我可以听到他的破鞋在水中格喳格喳作响。 来自辞典例句
• The armies got bogged down in the thick squelching mud. 军队都陷入泥沼中，行进时烂泥扑哧作声。 来自互联网

8 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

9 trickle   

vi.淌，滴，流出，慢慢移动，逐渐消散

参考例句：

• The stream has thinned down to a mere trickle.这条小河变成细流了。
• The flood of cars has now slowed to a trickle.汹涌的车流现在已经变得稀稀拉拉。

10 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 diversification   

n.变化，多样化；多种经营

参考例句：

• The seminar was to discuss diversification of agriculture. 该研讨会讨论的是农业多种经营。 来自辞典例句
• Firm diversification is increasingly achieved by the means of takeover and merger. 通过接管和兼并，厂商经营范围日益多样化。 来自辞典例句

12 speculative   

adj.思索性的，暝想性的，推理的

参考例句：

• Much of our information is speculative.我们的许多信息是带推测性的。
• The report is highly speculative and should be ignored.那个报道推测的成分很大，不应理会。

13 fluctuation   

n.(物价的)波动，涨落；周期性变动；脉动

参考例句：

• The erratic fluctuation of market prices are in consequence of unstable economy.经济波动致使市场物价忽起忽落。
• Early and adequate drainage is essential if fluctuation occurs.有波动感时，应及早地充分引流。