VOA标准英语2009年-Somalia Analyst Says Al-Qaida- Linked Group Not

A former U.S. diplomat¹ and a leading analyst² on Somalia says the power and influence of the al-Qaida-linked al-Shabab group are diminishing, not increasing as some U.S. intelligence officials have recently warned.

In an article featured in this month's Sentinel magazine, published by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, Ambassador David Shinn says it is far from clear whether al-Shabab, designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, is continuing to attract support for its radical³ agenda and expanding its reach and influence in Somalia.

Shinn, who twice served as U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia, says he believes Ethiopia's troop withdrawal⁴ in January has hurt al-Shabab's image as a group fighting for Somali nationalism under the banner of Islam.

"Now that the Ethiopians have for the most part left Somalia, it has really undercut the al-Shabab argument and my guess is that you are going to see a decrease in interest by those Somalis, who may otherwise be tempted⁵ to join, because the main purpose for joining has basically disappeared," Shinn said.

Shinn acknowledges his argument in the Sentinel runs somewhat counter to latest U.S. intelligence reports.

Last week, several high-level intelligence officials told a Senate committee while the Ethiopian withdrawal may have removed a key rallying point for al-Shabab, it was recruiting Somalis from the United States and other countries and still expanding its operations. The officials also suggested that al-Shabab and its long-time ally, al-Qaida, may soon announce a merger⁶.

But the former diplomat says recent developments in Somalia suggest that many of al-Shabab's grass roots supporters in the past two years have been nationalists, who have little enthusiasm for al-Shabab's ultra-conservative ideology⁷ and ruthless tactics.

With Ethiopia gone, he says, moderate Islamists leaders and clan⁸ elders, who traditionally have had the most influence in Somalia, appear to be no longer intimidated⁹ by al-Shabab. Clerics and clan leaders have publicly declared their support of the U.N.-backed government of moderate Islamist President Sharif Sheik Ahmed.

Increasing sectarian clashes between al-Shabab and an armed moderate Islamist group called Ahlu-Sunna Wal-Jama'a in central Somalia also indicate that al-Shabab's interpretation¹⁰ of Islamic law is not what most Somalis want to see implemented¹¹.

Shinn says the majority of Somalis do not approve of al-Shabab's association with al-Qaida or their strict interpretation of Islam, which include a ban on playing music and stoning to death girls and women accused of committing adultery.

"I think al-Shabab would be considered a more formidable organization if it did not emphasize any links with al-Qaida. The more al-Shabab uses tactics like suicide car bombings, if they allow themselves to be just an al-Qaida operative in Somalia, that will probably be the beginning of the end of them as a major organization in the country," Shinn said.

Shinn says with Somalia in a delicate period of transition, it is vital that Somalis be given the chance to fully¹² chart their own destiny.

1 diplomat   

n.外交官，外交家；能交际的人，圆滑的人

参考例句：

• The diplomat threw in a joke, and the tension was instantly relieved.那位外交官插进一个笑话，紧张的气氛顿时缓和下来。
• He served as a diplomat in Russia before the war.战前他在俄罗斯当外交官。

2 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

3 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

4 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

5 tempted   

v.怂恿（某人）干不正当的事；冒…的险（tempt的过去分词）

参考例句：

• I was sorely tempted to complain, but I didn't. 我极想发牢骚，但还是没开口。
• I was tempted by the dessert menu. 甜食菜单馋得我垂涎欲滴。

6 merger   

n.企业合并，并吞

参考例句：

• Acceptance of the offer is the first step to a merger.对这项提议的赞同是合并的第一步。
• Shareholders will be voting on the merger of the companies.股东们将投票表决公司合并问题。

7 ideology   

n.意识形态，(政治或社会的)思想意识

参考例句：

• The ideology has great influence in the world.这种思想体系在世界上有很大的影响。
• The ideal is to strike a medium between ideology and inspiration.我的理想是在意识思想和灵感鼓动之间找到一个折衷。

8 clan   

n.氏族，部落，宗族，家族，宗派

参考例句：

• She ranks as my junior in the clan.她的辈分比我小。
• The Chinese Christians,therefore,practically excommunicate themselves from their own clan.所以，中国的基督徒简直是被逐出了自己的家族了。

9 intimidated   

v.恐吓；威胁adj.害怕的；受到威胁的

参考例句：

• We try to make sure children don't feel intimidated on their first day at school. 我们努力确保孩子们在上学的第一天不胆怯。
• The thief intimidated the boy into not telling the police. 这个贼恫吓那男孩使他不敢向警察报告。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 interpretation   

n.解释，说明，描述；艺术处理

参考例句：

• His statement admits of one interpretation only.他的话只有一种解释。
• Analysis and interpretation is a very personal thing.分析与说明是个很主观的事情。

11 implemented   

v.实现( implement的过去式和过去分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• This agreement, if not implemented, is a mere scrap of paper. 这个协定如不执行只不过是一纸空文。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The economy is in danger of collapse unless far-reaching reforms are implemented. 如果不实施影响深远的改革，经济就面临崩溃的危险。 来自辞典例句

12 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。