VOA标准英语2009年-Some Asian Economies Edge Out of Recession

After months of massive government spending, some economies in Asia have emerged from recession. But officials and business experts say it is not yet time for euphoria.

Japan - the world's second largest economy - grew about one percent in the three months ending in June, compared with the preceding quarter. That was a relief to Japanese economic officials who had feared a prolonged slump².

Still, recent data leave cause for concern. Japan's exports continue to plunge³ and unemployment is at record highs. Hideaki Hirata, an economist⁴ at Hosei University in Tokyo, says the bigger picture still looks daunting⁵.

"Quarterly comparison may not be appropriate in this kind of situation," Hirata said. "The level of GDP [gross domestic product] is extremely lower than the level in the last year. Yeah, it hit the bottom but it is a very deep bottom. So maybe the recovery needs at least two or three years."

Fearing a deep recession, Japan's government last year gave billions of dollars in subsidies⁶ and cash to Japanese consumers, encouraging them to shop to compensate⁷ for the collapse⁸ of exports to the West.

Hirata says the subsidies appear to have worked as consumption rose, and so did China's purchases of Japanese goods. China surpassed the United States as the top destination of Japanese goods in the first six months of the year.

"Japan was helped by [the] strong demand of China," Hirata said. "But if we look at exports data in detail, exports to U.S. and European countries are still weak."

Some economists⁹ say China could drive the recovery in Asia. Beijing's $600 billion stimulus¹⁰ package helped the economy expand more than seven percent in the most recent quarter. The decline in Chinese exports has been slowing, and factory activity, as measured by electricity consumption, has started to pick up from the lows at the end of last year.

Jing Ulrich is chairwoman of China equities¹¹ and commodities at the investment bank JP Morgan in Hong Kong.

"If you look around from Japan to Korea to Southeast Asian countries, China is their single largest trading partner," Ulrich said. "As China imports more commodities from resource-rich countries such as Indonesia, and China also imports capital goods from the likes of Japan and South Korea, intermediate components¹² from Taiwan, from Thailand - I think China will absolutely play a critical role in a regional economic recovery."

The heavy government spending in some Asian economies that started last year is producing results. South Korea's economy expanded two-point-three percent in the last quarter and consumer confidence rebounded¹⁴ to a seven-year high in August. The government has budgeted more than $23 billion since November to pump up the economy.

Lee Junkyu, senior advisor¹⁵ in international affairs at the Ministry¹⁶ of Strategy and Finance in Seoul, says government spending has helped, but there could be some risks ahead.

"Government cannot continue its major role, it's not forever…. We need to see the private sector's vitality¹⁷ again," Lee said. "And also I may point [out], there are other risks to the outlook, another bout¹ of global risk aversion and rising oil prices or commodity prices."

The global economic downturn has severely¹⁸ hurt Asia's export economies, because consumers from large markets like the U.S and Europe cut back on spending.

Export-reliant Singapore and Thailand saw their economies expand slightly in the second quarter from the first quarter. But output for both economies is well below levels from last year.

The Chinese territory of Hong Kong slipped out of recession in the second quarter. Hong Kong handles a significant amount of exports being shipped out of China. But government economist Helen Chan remains¹⁹ cautious. She spoke²⁰ through a translator.

"This is the initial stage of an economic rebound¹³. We are not yet going to have a sound basis for an overall improvement, investment remains slack and swine flu has dealt a blow to tourism. Unemployment will remain serious and is a deteriorating²¹ situation in the coming months. We should remain vigilant²² to [about] our economic situation in the coming months."

Patrick Low, the chief economist of the World Trade Organization, says the recovery seen in Asia is still "tentative".

"We're not quite through the woods yet," Low said. "Unemployment is still rising pretty much everywhere. And looks like it will continue to rise through next year."

He says the massive government stimulus spending could bring inflation. Rising prices could discourage consumers from buying, and that, he says, could again undermine economic growth.

1 bout   

n.侵袭，发作；一次(阵，回)；拳击等比赛

参考例句：

• I was suffering with a bout of nerves.我感到一阵紧张。
• That bout of pneumonia enfeebled her.那次肺炎的发作使她虚弱了。

2 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

3 plunge   

v.跳入，(使)投入，(使)陷入；猛冲

参考例句：

• Test pool's water temperature before you plunge in.在你跳入之前你应该测试水温。
• That would plunge them in the broil of the two countries.那将会使他们陷入这两国的争斗之中。

4 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

5 daunting   

adj.使人畏缩的

参考例句：

• They were faced with the daunting task of restoring the house.他们面临着修复房子的艰巨任务。
• Starting a new job can be a daunting prospect.开始一项新工作有时会让人望而却步。

6 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 compensate   

vt.补偿，赔偿；酬报 vi.弥补；补偿；抵消

参考例句：

• She used her good looks to compensate her lack of intelligence. 她利用她漂亮的外表来弥补智力的不足。
• Nothing can compensate for the loss of one's health. 一个人失去了键康是不可弥补的。

8 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

9 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

11 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

12 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

13 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

14 rebounded   

弹回( rebound的过去式和过去分词 )； 反弹； 产生反作用； 未能奏效

参考例句：

• The ball rebounded from the goalpost and Owen headed it in. 球从门柱弹回，欧文头球将球攻进。
• The ball rebounded from his racket into the net. 球从他的球拍上弹回网中。

15 advisor   

n.顾问，指导老师，劝告者

参考例句：

• They employed me as an advisor.他们聘请我当顾问。
• The professor is engaged as a technical advisor.这位教授被聘请为技术顾问。

16 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

17 vitality   

n.活力，生命力，效力

参考例句：

• He came back from his holiday bursting with vitality and good health.他度假归来之后，身强体壮，充满活力。
• He is an ambitious young man full of enthusiasm and vitality.他是个充满热情与活力的有远大抱负的青年。

18 severely   

adv.严格地；严厉地；非常恶劣地

参考例句：

• He was severely criticized and removed from his post.他受到了严厉的批评并且被撤了职。
• He is severely put down for his careless work.他因工作上的粗心大意而受到了严厉的批评。

19 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

20 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

21 deteriorating   

恶化，变坏( deteriorate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The weather conditions are deteriorating. 天气变得越来越糟。
• I was well aware of the bad morale and the deteriorating factories. 我很清楚，大家情绪低落，各个工厂越搞越坏。

22 vigilant   

adj.警觉的，警戒的，警惕的

参考例句：

• He has to learn how to remain vigilant through these long nights.他得学会如何在这漫长的黑夜里保持警觉。
• The dog kept a vigilant guard over the house.这只狗警醒地守护着这所房屋。