VOA标准英语2009年-Economists, Business Leaders Ponder When t

The world's major economies have spent trillions of dollars in government money to ease a severe global slump¹. That spending has led to huge budget deficits³ in some countries, including the United States, but it also is credited with recent signs of economic recovery. In Asia, business people are now asking if governments should stop the spending now.

Recently Chinese Premier⁴ Wen Jiabao said his government's $600 billion stimulus⁵ effort has worked. But he told a gathering⁶ of financial industry experts that because of remaining uncertainties⁷ in the global economy, China is not about to start turning off the money tap. He spoke⁸ through a translator.

"We cannot and will not change our policy direction in the absence of proper conditions," he said. "We will continue steady and relatively⁹ fast economic growth as our primarily task. We will unswervingly follow the proactive fiscal¹⁰ policy and the moderately easy monetary¹¹ policy, and implement¹² and continuously enrich and improve the stimulus package."

Late last year, governments around the world took bold steps to save their economies from the threat of a deep recession. To stimulate¹³ growth, they pumped billions of dollars into their economies and lowered interest rates so that companies and consumers could get cheap credit. In China, banks lent as much as the annual gross domestic product of Canada.

But as economies start to recover, governments and business people are debating when to stop the stimulus. Getting the timing¹⁴ wrong brings huge consequences.

Cutting off the money too soon means fragile growth could falter¹⁵, especially since demand for Asian exports remain weak.

Zhu Min, group executive vice¹⁶ president of the state-owned Bank of China, says although major economies in Asia such as China, Japan and South Korea, grew in the second quarter, the recovery is still fragile.

"I would say it's still too early to talk about exits today because the world still needs a fiscal and monetary policy to stabilize," said Zhu.

But acting¹⁷ too slowly has huge risks, too. As Zhu notes, one of the biggest is inflation, caused by vast amounts of money being used recklessly and over-stimulating demand. One fear is that prices for investments such as stocks and property could rise rapidly, creating a so-called asset bubble.

"But given nine trillion dollars liquidity¹⁸ in the market, given four trillion dollars in U.S. debt, people are obviously concerned about inflationary pressure, people are obviously concerned about the U.S. deficit², people are obviously concerned about U.S. dollar devaluation," said Zhu.

Stephen Roach, Asia chairman of the U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley, recently said identifying a timetable for an exit is a "Herculean task". But he says lessons should be learned from the U.S. recession of the 1990s, when, he says, the Federal Reserve Bank left interest rates too low, for too long.

"And sowed the seeds for future bubbles and then embraced a very incremental¹⁹ exit strategy in trying to normalize the funds rates and actually continued to fuel the credit and property bubbles of recent years," he said.

Some economists²¹ already worry about an asset bubble in China. Beijing's stimulus money has mostly gone to building infrastructure²² to help cushion the pain of millions of factory jobs lost because of the global slowdown. But a substantial amount found its way into the surging property and stock markets.

Continuing stimulus efforts too long has other risks.

After Japan's asset bubble burst in the 1990s, the government spent years trying to stimulate growth. And after new stimulus spending over the past year, Japan faces an enormous public debt, twice its annual gross domestic product, which drags down growth. The Bank of Japan maintains near zero interest rates despite severe deflation or fall in prices.

Heizo Takenaka is an economist²⁰ and Japan's former minister of economic and financial policy. He says government spending is good in the short run, but stimulus money must be targeted for it to work.

"In the case of Asian countries, infrastructure investment is good in the short run and also in the long run. However, just to rescue the damaged companies - this kind of policy is also taken by some countries. This kind of policy to help will require another policy to solve," he said. "So the solution will not come. This [is what] we experienced in the 1990s. So how to get rid of this policy to help to shift in the policy to solve is the most important part. Otherwise we will see a very long lost decade just like what Japan experienced in the 1990s."

Takenaka says it is difficult to find an exit and it may take several years. He says governments must have the political will to decide to end the spending.

Antony Leung, chairman for greater China for the U.S. private equity²³ company Blackstone and formerly²⁴ Hong Kong's financial secretary, agrees.

"It is politically more difficult to withdraw this liquidity from the market. That's why it would be nice to have an exit strategy with clear timetables and indicators," he said. "But my fear is because of the political pressure it may not happen."

Many governments are looking for signs that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin to tighten²⁵ up its monetary policy, slowly pulling money out of the system.

Exit strategies are expected to be on the agenda when leaders from the major developed and developing economies of G-20 meet in the U.S. city of Pittsburgh next week.

1 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

2 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

3 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

4 premier   

adj.首要的；n.总理，首相

参考例句：

• The Irish Premier is paying an official visit to Britain.爱尔兰总理正在对英国进行正式访问。
• He requested that the premier grant him an internview.他要求那位总理接见他一次。

5 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

6 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

7 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

8 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

9 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

10 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

11 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

12 implement   

n.(pl.)工具，器具；vt.实行，实施，执行

参考例句：

• Don't undertake a project unless you can implement it.不要承担一项计划，除非你能完成这项计划。
• The best implement for digging a garden is a spade.在花园里挖土的最好工具是铁锹。

13 stimulate   

vt.刺激，使兴奋；激励，使…振奋

参考例句：

• Your encouragement will stimulate me to further efforts.你的鼓励会激发我进一步努力。
• Success will stimulate the people for fresh efforts.成功能鼓舞人们去作新的努力。

14 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

15 falter   

vi.(嗓音)颤抖，结巴地说；犹豫；蹒跚

参考例句：

• His voice began to falter.他的声音开始发颤。
• As he neared the house his steps faltered.当他走近房子时，脚步迟疑了起来。

16 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

17 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

18 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

19 incremental   

adj.增加的

参考例句：

• For logic devices, the incremental current gain is very important. 对于逻辑器件来说，提高电流增益是非常重要的。 来自辞典例句
• By using an incremental approach, the problems involving material or geometric nonlinearity have been solved. 借应用一种增量方法，已经解决了包括材料的或几何的非线性问题。 来自辞典例句

20 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

21 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

22 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

23 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

24 formerly   

adv.从前，以前

参考例句：

• We now enjoy these comforts of which formerly we had only heard.我们现在享受到了过去只是听说过的那些舒适条件。
• This boat was formerly used on the rivers of China.这船从前航行在中国内河里。

25 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。